No October Surprise party for GOP

An “October Surprise,” a late-breaking revelation or dramatic development that shakes up an election campaign, has become a staple of American politics. In 2016, for example, just 11 days before Election Day, FBI Director James Comey announced that the FBI was examining newly discovered emails potentially related to Hillary Clinton’s private email server, thrusting the controversy back into the headlines and hurting her election chances.

This year, with the 2026 midterm elections less than three weeks away, Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by 8.8 points, according to Nate Silver’s October 13 polling average, while Donald Trump’s approval rating is under 40%. Those numbers give Trump and his allies a powerful incentive to change the political narrative before voters go to the polls.

And right on cue, the Trump administration has been making dramatic announcements and taking controversial actions. For instance, on October 9, Trump announced an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin to increase Russian diesel supplies to global markets, promising relief from soaring fuel prices. However, critics say the initial shipment amounts to less than one day’s worth of U.S. consumption, and therefore would have little impact on prices. American motorists and truckers continue to face high fuel costs, as do consumers paying more for many goods that rely on fuel for production, transport and/or delivery.