The feeling of many Democrats
According to the polls and predictions, Democrats are expected to win the U.S. House majority in the November 3 midterm elections. The U.S. Senate contest, and the likely margin of victory, is much closer. If the Democrats win the House majority, they will have the power to impeach Donald Trump and other administration officials. However, such impeachment likely will not result in conviction and removal in the Senate. That’s because conviction requires a two-thirds vote, and at best, either party will likely have a very slim Senate majority, or even a tie, beginning in January. This means, even if the House Democratic majority votes to impeach Trump:
–if Republicans keep their Senate majority, they probably won’t even bring the impeachment up for trial
–if there is a 50-50 Senate tie, Republicans will maintain control via their tie-breaking vote for Vice President J D Vance, with the same likely result, i.e. impeachments of Trump and/or his administration officials wont even get a hearing
–if Democrats win a narrow Senate majority, they can bring the impeachment for trial, but it will likely fail to get the 2/3 vote for conviction and removal
These scenarios raise the question whether it is worth it for Democrats to impeach Trump. Kamala Harris recently went on record saying it is not a good plan. She gave two principal reasons:
–“Just because we have limited resources, and I think the energy and the resources need to be put into accountability, need to be put into investigations.”
–“Remember, I was in the Senate for the last go-around, and the votes aren’t there.” [for conviction and removal]
Vice President Harris makes some valid arguments. However, the better choice is to impeach Trump if the facts warrant it upon investigation. Here’s why:
First, the House’s function is limited to voting for impeachment or not. It’s not their job or their power to predict or control what then happens in the Senate. The Constitution’s separation of powers means that House members should not be making impeachment decisions based on speculation of what might or might not happen next. And there’s always a possibility that Senate Republicans would join Senate Democrats to convict and remove Trump, if the facts were bad enough, or if Trump is hurting them politically enough at that point.
Second, impeachment is preceded by investigations and public hearings. These serve a purpose of synthesizing the facts of the official’s wrongdoing (not just Trump, but Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and any other federal official who is found to have committed the requisite wrongdoing) and establishing a clear record. These are presumably the same “investigations” that Harris calls for, as well as “accountability”. But for a sitting president and other administration officials, the best (and for the president possibly the only) way to have investigations followed by real accountability is through impeachment. Otherwise, in Harris’ scenario, the best Democrats could do would be to investigate Donald Trump, and even if they find criminal wrongdoing, take no further action, let Trump finish his term, and then hope someone prosecutes him based on their factual record afterwards.
Third, the investigations, hearings and impeachments would be public and would be part of the focus of the “news” media, instead of whatever shiny object Trump wants to be the focus each day. Republicans are experts at distracting us with various Culture War controversies, from trans athletes to the Cheesecake Factory decor. They get the mainstream “news” media to play up these controversies. Public impeachment hearings would cut through much of this media clutter.
Fourth, impeachment can boost morale within the Democratic party. It could also help Democrats go on offense in the 2028 elections, by tying Republican candidates to Trump and/or putting them on the spot to disavow him. One thing heard repeatedly from the Democratic Party base is to “stand up to Trump” and the Republicans, which naturally includes holding Trump to account for his misdeeds.
In this respect, Kamala Harris is misreading the room by saying Democrats should essentially let the worst, most criminal president in our history off the hook.
Photo by Ed Uthman, used under Creative Commons license. https://tinyurl.com/5k5xrrka
