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After midterms, Republicans must decide how much Trump they want

Republicans have some choices to make

Democrats flipped at least eight U.S. Senate seats in the 2026 midterm elections, including Kansas, Mississippi and Texas. Democrats also recaptured the U.S. House majority, winning at least 257 seats. The midterms were widely seen as a repudiation of Donald Trump, who urged voters beforehand to “pretend I’m on the ballot.” Even television viewers appear to be moving on: Trump’s post-midterm “60 Minutes” interview drew the second-smallest audience for an episode featuring him since 2015. Our previous post discussed how Trump and the Democrats might behave toward each other. But just as importantly, Republicans now essentially face two paths: stick with Trump or reject him.

Some Republicans are abiding by Trump. Longtime aide Stephen Miller vowed to “fight with all of our soul” for Trump, who rewarded Miller’s loyalty by naming him White House Chief of Staff. Likewise, the Republican-led House voted to send Kentucky Republican Rep. Thomas Massie’s eight articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to the Judiciary Committee, effectively killing them for now. Furthermore, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Hegseth defend the U.S. military operations in Iran, Yemen and Venezuela that Massie’s articles of impeachment target.

What happens next as Trump faces a Democratic Congress?

Wrestling matches to come

The Democratic Party’s stunning 2026 midterm election victories have upended the political landscape. Beginning in January, Democrats will control both chambers of Congress, while Donald Trump has two years left in his White House term. These next two years could bring bipartisan cooperation, political warfare, or a dictatorial Trump who attempts to govern without Congress.

The last time this government split happened was after the 2006 midterms, when Democrats won control of both chambers during Republican George W. Bush’s second term. During that period, Democrats secured a federal minimum wage increase from $5.15 to $7.25 an hour phased in over two years, while Republicans obtained billions in tax cuts for small businesses. The parties also reached other agreements, including the Energy Independence and Security Act, which established stronger automobile fuel-efficiency standards and expanded renewable fuel requirements.

But confrontation occurred too. Bush twice vetoed a major expansion of children’s health insurance, and Democrats failed to override either veto. Bush also vetoed the 2008 Farm Bill twice, but Congress overrode both vetoes.

Democrats should impeach Trump next year

The feeling of many Democrats

According to the polls and predictions, Democrats are expected to win the U.S. House majority in the November 3 midterm elections. The U.S. Senate contest, and the likely margin of victory, is much closer. If the Democrats win the House majority, they will have the power to impeach Donald Trump and other administration officials. However, such impeachment likely will not result in conviction and removal in the Senate. That’s because conviction requires a two-thirds vote, and at best, either party will likely have a very slim Senate majority, or even a tie, beginning in January. This means, even if the House Democratic majority votes to impeach Trump:

–if Republicans keep their Senate majority, they probably won’t even bring the impeachment up for trial
–if there is a 50-50 Senate tie, Republicans will maintain control via their tie-breaking vote for Vice President J D Vance, with the same likely result, i.e. impeachments of Trump and/or his administration officials wont even get a hearing
–if Democrats win a narrow Senate majority, they can bring the impeachment for trial, but it will likely fail to get the 2/3 vote for conviction and removal

These scenarios raise the question whether it is worth it for Democrats to impeach Trump. Kamala Harris recently went on record saying it is not a good plan. She gave two principal reasons:

–“Just because we have limited resources, and I think the energy and the resources need to be put into accountability, need to be put into investigations.”

–“Remember, I was in the Senate for the last go-around, and the votes aren’t there.” [for conviction and removal]

Vice President Harris makes some valid arguments. However, the better choice is to impeach Trump if the facts warrant it upon investigation. Here’s why:

Data centers give Democrats an advantage as midterms approach

Google data center, Council Bluffs, IA

With control of Congress on the line in the midterms, a wave of bipartisan opposition to AI data centers has become one of the more unexpected developments of the campaign. Rising electricity bills tied to data center growth already helped Democrats flip a Georgia utility regulator’s seat last November, a preview of a fight now spreading into House and Senate races nationwide.

The anger fueling this fight is shared by voters in both parties, and it goes well beyond electricity bills. A poll found 77 percent of Americans are concerned data centers will raise their electric bills, with two-thirds of Democrats and half of Republicans saying they would oppose a data center in their own community. Independents are just as uneasy: a University of Massachusetts Amherst poll found 71 percent would oppose an AI data center in their own community, a higher share than the Republicans polled and close to the Democratic number.

Democrats are fighting a media war with no army

“We can build a better system”

As we have stated here before, Republicans have spent decades building a media machine reaching into nearly every corner of American life. Fox “News” is only the start. Sinclair Broadcast Group owns local television stations that reach nearly four in ten American households with its conservative-biased programming. Add Newsmax, OAN, the Daily Wire, the Tucker Carlson Network, AM talk radio, newspapers such as the Washington Post (owned by Jeff Bezos), the Wall Street Journal and the New York Post (both controlled by News Corp. i.e. the family of Rupert Murdoch), and even CBS News now in right wing hands, and you get Uber drivers reciting right wing talking points to captive customers. Many non-conservatives therefore get exposed to this Republican ecosphere as well, as the massive reach of GOP talking points means they become the actual discussion topics for many issues.

Democrats have no comparable media structure. As a result, conservative outlets can seize upon a topic and hammer it far longer than any Democratic effort could sustain. The tactic often follows a simple pattern: Republicans take an isolated incident, strip it of context, and use their media machine to present it as proof of a nationwide crisis, often using their invented false narratives such as “Scary Brown People”.

Democrats have affordability for 2026. Trump Is handing them much more.

Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in better times

A few months ago, we noted that Democrats are running on “affordability” for the 2026 midterm elections. That choice looks smarter by the week. But affordability is only part of the story, because the same Republican recklessness driving prices higher also demonstrates an administration that keeps breaking the law and breaking things.

First, Donald Trump‘s global tariffs have raised costs on everyday goods from food to cars to washing machines. The U.S. Supreme Court later ruled that Trump had no legal authority to impose the tariffs. Yet Trump just slapped new 50% tariffs on Canada because of smoke from that country’s fires. Moreover, the tariffs were never really “reciprocal” as Trump claimed. Rather than matching the actual tariffs other countries charge on American goods, Trump falsely used a formula based on the U.S. trade deficit with each country. It’s a tax hike on Americans built on phony numbers, that was also illegal.

Trump’s Iran War follows a similar path. The war has pushed the national average price for Regular gasoline back above $4 a gallon, with diesel climbing past $5, as fighting disrupts shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Grocery bills are similarly affected, including sky-high prices on beef and other items, as analysts point to the same geopolitical chaos hitting fuel supplies.

Is Trump’s Grip Slipping? The Evidence Is Starting to Add Up

Trump’s wishes vs. reality

Donald Trump‘s political brand has rested on the promise that he can disrupt Washington bureaucracy and deliver results. His influence has also depended on his ability to keep Republican lawmakers aligned behind his priorities and convince voters that he can impose his agenda where other politicians fail.

That advantage depends on turning demands into outcomes. Recently, however, Trump has faced a series of incidents where that ability appears to be weakening.

The clearest examples have come from the courts. Recently, a federal judge halted Trump’s effort to create a federal voter list through executive action, ruling that the administration likely exceeded its authority. Another court blocked the administration’s attempt to use federal immigration data to verify voter eligibility. Federal appeals courts also rejected or dismissed Trump’s efforts to force Michigan and Pennsylvania, respectively, to hand over their voter rolls.

The one thing Democrats can do to win the election (besides voting)

Another Trump moment

With the 2026 midterm elections approaching, Democratic Party leaders and candidates have been focusing on the issues they think will work best to defeat the Republicans. For example, Democrats have been hammering “affordability” regarding gasoline prices, food prices, healthcare costs, childcare costs, etc., and that is certainly an important issue to stress.

At the same time, Democratic voters have a crucial role to play, besides just showing up to vote. One area where Democrats can make a difference is to get out their computers, tablets or phones and share pictures and videos of Donald Trump. We can hear you ask, “What? I already do that!” Well, we’re talking about specific pictures and videos showing Trump falling asleep, rambling incoherently, and in obvious declining physical and mental health.

This kind of focus on Trump’s physical and cognitive decline should work well for several reasons. First, Republicans (and their media supplicants) hammered President Joe Biden over his age, stamina, and fitness for office, often on very thin evidence, including Biden’s life-long stutter. During the 2024 campaign, Republicans repeatedly argued that age-related concerns about Biden raised questions of leadership and capacity. That messaging proved effective, helping make Biden’s age a defining story of the election cycle and driving Biden out of the race after just one debate with Trump.

Graham Platner and the New Democratic Machiavellianism

Sen. Susan Collins of Maine

Graham Platner‘s victory this week in Maine‘s U.S. Senate Democratic primary may be evidence that a new hyper-realism is taking hold in the Democratic Party. Faced with a crucial Senate general election against Republican incumbent Susan Collins, many Democratic voters appear willing to overlook Platner’s long list of personal controversies, instead focusing on the larger goal of winning a Senate seat in order to take back the Senate majority.

If this is the case, the shift is striking because Platner’s campaign has been shadowed by a series of damaging stories. including his tattoo that resembles the Nazi-era Totenkopf symbol, resurfaced online comments containing racist and sexist remarks, sexting other women after recently having gotten married, and accusations by former partners accusing Platner of abusive or intimidating conduct.

The political significance of Platner’s primary victory despite these controversies is not that Democratic voters believe all the allegations against him are false. Indeed, Platner’s Nazi tattoo and intolerant online postings were there for all to see, and he admitted to the sexting. Rather, many Democrats in Maine and elsewhere appear to have concluded that the stakes of the 2026 U.S. Senate battle outweigh them. Simply put, the Senate majority is up for grabs this November, and control of the Senate is all-important when it comes to approving or halting Donald Trump‘s legislative agenda, his judicial nominations (including potential U.S. Supreme Court nominations), and more.

Trump’s Iran War brings affordability to the fore

Gas prices causing election havoc

For Donald Trump and the Republicans, the political problem right now is sticky. It’s “affordability”, the new buzzword that takes the place of the less personal-sounding “inflation”.

The same issue that powered Trump’s 2024 campaign is now moving in the wrong direction—and voters are noticing. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds 77% of Americans blame Trump for rising gas prices, driven in large part by Trump’s Iran War and disruptions to global oil supply.

Gasoline prices well over $4 per gallon are only part of it. Energy shocks don’t stay contained—they ripple outward into food, transportation, and everyday goods. That broader anxiety is already showing up in more polling, where respondents say the economy is getting worse, and they blame Trump’s policies for these results. Moreover, all this is on top of inflation caused by Trump’s tariffs over the past year or more.

This affordability problem is cutting directly into Trump’s political standing. Multiple surveys now show his approval rating sinking into the 30s, with economic approval even weaker—just 31% approving of his handling of the economy and 27% on inflation. Moreover, this erosion in Trump’s standing is tied to a specific chain of events: a war of choice against Iran that has disrupted oil markets, pushed prices higher, and left Trump without a clear exit.

That connection is what harms Trump and the Republicans politically, because voters can tie Trump’s tariffs and his Iran War to their gas and grocery bills. When oil spikes above $100 a barrel amid instability in the Strait of Hormuz, they experience it as higher prices at home. And when that happens, accountability can be immediate and unforgiving.

There’s even a deeper problem here for Trump heading into the midterms. In 2024, he specifically ran against the alleged high prices of the Biden administration (ignoring that, first, the temporary high inflation was due to fixing the COVID mess that Trump left in his first term, and second, that Biden steadily brought inflation down, leaving office with a lower inflation rate than what Trump brings us today. Now, with rising gas and food costs and a war driving economic uncertainty, that argument is coming back to bite him.

This is the risk that lingers. Not just a war overseas, or even declining approval numbers—but a steady, daily reminder at the gas pump and the grocery checkout line that Donald Trump’s central promise of the last election isn’t being met.

Photo by A Siegel, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/5gvmGq