Gas prices causing election havoc

For Donald Trump and the Republicans, the political problem right now is sticky. It’s “affordability”, the new buzzword that takes the place of the less personal-sounding “inflation”.

The same issue that powered Trump’s 2024 campaign is now moving in the wrong direction—and voters are noticing. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds 77% of Americans blame Trump for rising gas prices, driven in large part by Trump’s Iran War and disruptions to global oil supply.

Gasoline prices well over $4 per gallon are only part of it. Energy shocks don’t stay contained—they ripple outward into food, transportation, and everyday goods. That broader anxiety is already showing up in more polling, where respondents say the economy is getting worse, and they blame Trump’s policies for these results. Moreover, all this is on top of inflation caused by Trump’s tariffs over the past year or more.

This affordability problem is cutting directly into Trump’s political standing. Multiple surveys now show his approval rating sinking into the 30s, with economic approval even weaker—just 31% approving of his handling of the economy and 27% on inflation. Moreover, this erosion in Trump’s standing is tied to a specific chain of events: a war of choice against Iran that has disrupted oil markets, pushed prices higher, and left Trump without a clear exit.

That connection is what harms Trump and the Republicans politically, because voters can tie Trump’s tariffs and his Iran War to their gas and grocery bills. When oil spikes above $100 a barrel amid instability in the Strait of Hormuz, they experience it as higher prices at home. And when that happens, accountability can be immediate and unforgiving.

There’s even a deeper problem here for Trump heading into the midterms. In 2024, he specifically ran against the alleged high prices of the Biden administration (ignoring that, first, the temporary high inflation was due to fixing the COVID mess that Trump left in his first term, and second, that Biden steadily brought inflation down, leaving office with a lower inflation rate than what Trump brings us today. Now, with rising gas and food costs and a war driving economic uncertainty, that argument is coming back to bite him.

This is the risk that lingers. Not just a war overseas, or even declining approval numbers—but a steady, daily reminder at the gas pump and the grocery checkout line that Donald Trump’s central promise of the last election isn’t being met.

Photo by A Siegel, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/5gvmGq