Wrestling matches to come
The Democratic Party’s stunning 2026 midterm election victories have upended the political landscape. Beginning in January, Democrats will control both chambers of Congress, while Donald Trump has two years left in his White House term. These next two years could bring bipartisan cooperation, political warfare, or a dictatorial Trump who attempts to govern without Congress.
The last time this government split happened was after the 2006 midterms, when Democrats won control of both chambers during Republican George W. Bush’s second term. During that period, Democrats secured a federal minimum wage increase from $5.15 to $7.25 an hour phased in over two years, while Republicans obtained billions in tax cuts for small businesses. The parties also reached other agreements, including the Energy Independence and Security Act, which established stronger automobile fuel-efficiency standards and expanded renewable fuel requirements.
But confrontation occurred too. Bush twice vetoed a major expansion of children’s health insurance, and Democrats failed to override either veto. Bush also vetoed the 2008 Farm Bill twice, but Congress overrode both vetoes.
Could Trump follow Bush’s example and negotiate with Democrats at least part of the time? Trump’s history suggests that could happen. In November 2016, shortly after winning the election, Trump agreed to a $25 million settlement of three lawsuits alleging fraud by Trump University, allowing him to avoid a trial. Then, in September 2017, Trump surprised Republican congressional leaders by negotiating a deal with Democrats to extend the debt ceiling and government funding for three months while providing Hurricane Harvey relief. Trump has already said he is open to working with Democrats, although he has described legislative proposals he expects to receive from them as “insane.”
Another possibility is two years of political warfare. Democrats could pass legislation addressing healthcare, affordability and more, only to see Trump veto their bills. Without enough votes to override those vetoes, their legislative agenda would stall. Congressional investigations, subpoenas, and hearings could also become a major feature of the next two years as Democrats exercise their constitutional responsibility to hold the executive branch accountable. Investigations could produce evidence supporting impeachment of Trump or other administration officials.
Trump could additionally turn to executive orders and federal agencies to pursue his agenda, bypassing congressional opposition. Trump has already issued 229 such orders during his first year back in office, the highest first-year total since Franklin Roosevelt in 1933 and nearly four times the number Trump issued during his first year in 2017. Democrats could challenge such executive actions in court.
What role will congressional Republicans play? Senate Republican Leader John Thune has already promised resistance to Democratic efforts to reverse the Trump agenda. But Republicans face their own political calculations. Some may remain aligned with Trump, while others may distance themselves from Trump as a lame duck and look toward the 2028 elections. Still others may cooperate selectively with Democrats on legislation that benefits their constituents.
There’s political opportunity for Democrats even if legislation stalls. As we say: “You get the legislation or you get the issue.” Democrats can introduce bills that demonstrate their priorities and offer solutions to problems voters care about. If Republicans oppose and Trump vetoes those bills, Democrats can campaign against them as the party of “no”. Democrats can show voters what they stand for and build a case for a Democratic president in 2028.
The Bush experience shows that divided government can produce meaningful legislation, bitter confrontation, or both. Whether Trump chooses negotiation or confrontation remains an open question. Democrats have two years to demonstrate what they can accomplish, to the limited extent congressional Democrats can achieve results given Trump’s veto. Even if Trump blocks their agenda, they have an opportunity to make the case for why voters should give them the presidency next time.
Photo by Big Ed’s Photos, used under Creative Commons license. https://tinyurl.com/2p9k3fdx
