No October Surprise party for GOP
An “October Surprise,” a late-breaking revelation or dramatic development that shakes up an election campaign, has become a staple of American politics. In 2016, for example, just 11 days before Election Day, FBI Director James Comey announced that the FBI was examining newly discovered emails potentially related to Hillary Clinton’s private email server, thrusting the controversy back into the headlines and hurting her election chances.
This year, with the 2026 midterm elections less than three weeks away, Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by 8.8 points, according to Nate Silver’s October 13 polling average, while Donald Trump’s approval rating is under 40%. Those numbers give Trump and his allies a powerful incentive to change the political narrative before voters go to the polls.
And right on cue, the Trump administration has been making dramatic announcements and taking controversial actions. For instance, on October 9, Trump announced an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin to increase Russian diesel supplies to global markets, promising relief from soaring fuel prices. However, critics say the initial shipment amounts to less than one day’s worth of U.S. consumption, and therefore would have little impact on prices. American motorists and truckers continue to face high fuel costs, as do consumers paying more for many goods that rely on fuel for production, transport and/or delivery.
Then, on October 11, Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an immediate “energy cease-fire”, meaning a halt to attacks on each other’s energy facilities. The next day, however, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported continued Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Trump has also failed to demand that Russia cease its deadly terror attacks on Ukrainian civilians in apartment buildings and elsewhere. Voters will recall that, during his 2024 election campaign, Trump repeatedly promised to end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking office.
The Iran war is equally troubling. In September, Trump predicted that the war would end “immediately after” the midterms and that oil prices would fall after Election Day. This month, he declared that the United States would not attack Iran before the midterms, even as the Pentagon prepared options for renewed strikes. By explicitly tying the timing of military action and promised economic relief to the election calendar, Trump has raised serious questions about whether he is placing politics over national security.
In another such dramatic move, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced plans to livestream the December 3 execution of Nidal Hasan, the former Army psychiatrist convicted of killing 13 people at Fort Hood in 2009. The last public execution in the United States took place in 1936, and the livestream proposal has been condemned as both barbaric and circus-like. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson also warned that the broadcast “would be a recruiting tool for future terrorists.” Additionally, JD Vance has expressed doubts about the livestream plan, and Trump has also been ambiguous about it.
While all this is happening, the clock keeps ticking for Republican midterm election candidates. Virginia and other states began early voting on September 18, and millions of voters by now have been able to cast their ballots. In short, Trump’s high-profile actions have not turned the political tide for Republicans, and each passing day makes that prospect more unlikely.
Photo by Stephanie Riddell, used under Creative Commons license. Credit: www.familiesonline.co.uk. https://tinyurl.com/mrxevjbm
