Tag Archive: economy

Biden Boom update — the economy continues to gain strength

Lots of this floating around the U.S. economy

Back in December 2021, we published the Biden Boom” story. At the time, we noted how, in less than one year in office, President Joe Biden had already made great strides in the U.S. economy. That included, for example, getting economic growth up and unemployment down from the 2020 Trump Recession caused in large part by Donald Trump‘s failure to act on COVID. At the time, we suggested spreading this good economic news.

Now it’s more than 18 months later, and while Trump is busy begging for donations to defend himself against a growing pile of criminal indictments, President Biden has been busy helping all of us. As a result, the U.S. economy continues to defy the predictions of the doom and gloomers, including many in the mainstream media. This continuing Biden Boom is the great untold story of 2023. For example:

–Unemployment is only 3.6 percent, near the all-time low

–The U.S. has created over 13 million jobs since President Biden took office, which shatters the job creation record for a president’s 4-year term in just two and a half years.

–Inflation, which rose sharply due to the economic rescue steps needed after Trump’s COVID failures, is now down to three percent.

–U.S. Gross Domestic Product (i.e. economic growth) is still going strong at well over 2 percent annually.

–U.S. manufacturing growth has sharply rebounded under President Biden, and according to Axios, “outpaces the rest of the world.”

While all of this good economic news is occurring, a crucial moment took place last Wednesday, when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the Federal Reserve staff no longer forecasts a U.S. recession. This means the U.S. is likely headed for the much sought-after but rare “soft landing” of lowering inflation without causing a recession. Large companies like Caterpillar, reporting very high profits, agree.

President Biden vs. Republicans: debt ceiling PR battle forming

Debt ceiling D-Day is June 1

We’ve been following the looming debt ceiling crisis since January. At that time, the U.S. federal debt ceiling, limited by law, was reached, and the government began to take so-called “extraordinary measures” to keep things running as is without going into default. However, the problem has not been solved, and it is rapidly coming to a head. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says that if Congress doesn’t pass a law extending the debt limit by June 1, the “extraordinary measures” will run out and we will begin to go into default. That could cause catastrophic economic results, including a deep recession, a stock market crash, a spike in interest rates, and the government’s inability to send out Social Security checks, or make interest payments on Treasury bonds.

Some people say the Republicans want to blow up the U.S. economy this way. The theory is that the Republicans, who number in the minority, can only take back the White House and full control of Congress via this big gamble of (1) crashing the economy and (2) blaming President Joe Biden and the Democrats for the crash. To that end, Republicans are holding the debt ceiling, which is the bill that must be paid for past spending, hostage to budget demands for massive cuts in future spending for veterans, the environment, renewable energy, student loan forgiveness and other crucial items, even though these are two completely separate legislative processes. Republicans may think they can get away with such hostage-taking in part because the mainstream media notoriously play the “both sides at fault” game, or even worse, may be more inclined falsely to blame President Biden for the current crisis and its possible consequences.

Deploy the Liberal Shock Doctrine against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Solar power, a better alternative to fascist Russian gas

The Shock Doctrine is the idea that, when disasters or wars strike, conservatives try to use the events to push their existing agenda, such as privatization of important government functions, in response. Republicans have foisted such policies in places as far-flung as Iraq and New Orleans. We have argued that, in turn, Democrats should institute their policies, i.e. a Liberal Shock Doctrine, when they are in power and disasters and wars occur. That might include, for example, stronger gun safety laws after the shock of a mass shooting, or the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, including government stimulus payments and other federal aid, which Congressional Democrats and President Joe Biden successfully brought about in 2021 after Donald Trump‘s inaction in the face of the COVID pandemic plunged the U.S. into a recession in 2020.

Russia‘s shocking and tragic invasion of Ukraine presents another opportunity for the United States, and countries around the world, to create a liberal version of the Shock Doctrine. First, countries can promote the idea of democracy (which is well-represented by Ukraine) instead of fascist dictatorship, exemplified by Russia and Vladimir Putin. But in addition, there is one specific policy that the U.S. and the world should be pushing right now:

The Republicans’ War on America

Republican attack on U.S. Capitol

In his February 2021 annual letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett, considered to be the most successful investor of all time, wrote:

Our unwavering conclusion: Never bet against America.

However, looking back at 2021, the Republican Party certainly failed to heed Mr. Buffett’s advice. The Republicans bet against America when they disbelieved and then tried to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. They bet against America when they incited, supported and funded a terrorist attack on the U.S. Capitol that was designed to stop the certification of Electoral Votes for then President-elect Joe Biden. They bet against America when they fought, and continue to fight, against sensible COVID protections such as masks, vaccinations, school accommodations, and social distancing. And they bet against America when they side with one of our most dangerous global opponents, Russia, to hurt American democracy.

Surely, the Republicans’ War on America presents some stark campaign fodder for the 2022 elections.

It’s a Biden Boom: share the news

The Biden Boom

One of the most important stories of 2021 is one that does not get told enough: the Biden Economic Boom. Specifically, in less than 11 months, following the Trump Recession in which millions of jobs were lost, President Joe Biden has presided over a historic economic and jobs recovery. This includes:

–Extraordinary economic growth, estimated to be 7.8 percent this year.

–Income, wage and salary growth all way above the figures for 2018 and 2019.

–Unemployment falling from 6.3 percent in January 2021 (Donald Trump‘s last month in office) to just 4.2 percent last month, a historic drop in such a short time. And jobless claims just hit a new 52-year low.

Indeed, The Hill calls this “the fastest economic recovery in history.”

Moreover, the Biden Boom is no accident, but rather, a result of the Biden administration’s phenomenal efforts to vaccinate Americans against COVID; the American Rescue Plan which put money in the pockets of many Americans; and now the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (which may soon be followed by the Build Back Better Act). It turns out that Americans really do like competence in government, or what we call Good Government, and that is part of the Democratic Party’s brand.

Democrats could learn a lot from the O.J. Simpson murder trial

The courtroom of public opinion

Re-watching the 1995 O.J. Simpson murder trial is quite jarring. Perhaps most maddening is that the prosecution seemed to have a strong case, and blew it with a poor presentation. For example, co-lead prosecutor Marcia Clark‘s questioning of her own witness, Kato Kaelin, was seen as inept, often harsh, and repetitive. Indeed, the questioning of Kaelin was so bumbling that, a week after it began, Clark had to have Kaelin declared a hostile witness. Simpson’s defense attorneys, in contrast, were dynamic and persuasive, constantly outperforming the prosecutors. They spoke plainly (“if it does not fit, you must acquit.”) They did not lose their cool, in comparison to Clark’s frequent displays of frustration and even desperation. They also distracted jurors with conspiracy theories such as racist cops planting evidence. As we know, Simpson was found not guilty in his criminal murder trial.

The Democratic Party, including President Joe Biden, his White House staff and Cabinet officers, Democratic members of Congress and others, could learn from the O.J. Simpson murder trial. The Democrats have done many good things during Biden’s less than 11 months in office, that they should be shouting about from the rooftops. For example, the 2020 Donald Trump recession is over due to the American Rescue Plan. COVID vaccinations are up (and corresponding COVID cases and deaths are down), which has also boosted the economy. As a result, unemployment is down, and jobless claims are down to a pandemic-era low. Congress has passed the bipartisan Infrastructure bill as Biden promised, Biden provided leadership in the fight against climate change at the COP26 conference in Glasgow, and more.

But in perusing the mainstream media, one gets the impression that Biden and the Democrats are doing a lousy job, are facing numerous “crises,” and are in “disarray.” Republicans (amplified by the media) are talking about inflation, gasoline prices, Critical Race Theory, Afghanistan, and other subjects, real or imagined, where the Republicans think President Biden and the Democrats are vulnerable. This raises the question: Why is there such a disconnect between the reality and the impression for the Democrats, similar to what happened to the prosecution in the O.J. Simpson murder trial?

Don’t forget the Trump Recession

Donald Trump’s economy

While the whole country was talking about the presidential debate yesterday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), part of the U.S. Department of Commerce, released its “third revised” estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) demonstrating that the U.S. had a record-setting 31.4 percent economic contraction in the second quarter of 2020. This follows a five percent GDP decrease in the first quarter of 2020. In short, under any reasonable definition, we’re in the midst of the Trump Recession.

Moreover, the Trump Recession, including many retail bankruptcies and closures, was caused, or at least made worse and longer, by the lack of an effective national COVID response by Donald Trump and his Republican apologists. As has been well-documented, Trump and Republican politicians downplayed the Coronavirus pandemic, did not help provide enough crucial supplies and equipment, ordered businesses and public venues to be closed too late (if at all), and pressured states and local governments to reopen too early. This was not just one of the worst decisions in history in terms of public health, morality and government, but also one of the worst economic and political blunders in history. Failing to take COVID seriously in order to “boost the economy” did the opposite.

Fabulous framing by Byron Allen regarding Donald Trump

Byron Allen reduces Donald Trump to black “hired help”

We like nothing better than to hear folks effectively frame their political arguments, and yesterday, black media entrepreneur Byron Allen did just that. At a Yahoo! Finance economic conference focusing on recovery from the COVID pandemic, when the subject of Donald Trump calling unflattering or inconvenient news reports “fake news,” Allen said:

President Trump is completely wrong. What he’s not understanding is that he’s nothing more than temporary hired help. He works for the American people. He answers to us, we don’t answer to him.

Allen’s statement is so important as a reminder that, while Trump has locked children in cages, sent armed thugs to kidnap peaceful protesters in our cities, refused to obey subpoenas, enriched himself and his family at our expense, and committed many other deplorable and even illegal acts while in the White House, our Constitution provides that the president is supposed to be the servant of all Americans, not the other way around. That is an important statement about who really has the power in the United States, once they recognize it.

A second brilliant element of Allen’s remarks is that he flipped the script on hundreds of years of U.S. racial history, where blacks literally were brought here against their will as “help,” i.e. as slaves, only to continue to be “hired help” for whites for generations, at substandard wages, after obtaining their freedom. By calling Trump “hired help,” Allen completely reverses this racial stereotype and reminds us that Trump, a white man, is hired to serve black Americans, brown Americans, women, and the rest of us. One could even say that Byron Allen figuratively turned Donald Trump into a black man in terms of Trump’s status in America. And finally, Allen’s description of Trump as “temporary” points us to the light at the end of the tunnel, suggesting that whatever pain Trump is inflicting upon America will end someday, hopefully by next January 20 if enough voters come out and vote the right way this November.

Well done, Byron Allen.

Photo by Kheel Center, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/K7xIVH

 

U of Chicago economists say COVID fears slowing the economy

Pennsylvania Democratic Governor Tom Wolf takes precautions with mask and temperature check

A revealing new study by two University of Chicago economists indicates that fear of COVID (a/k/a COVID-19 or Coronavirus) has had a greater negative impact on the U.S. economy than government-imposed Coronavirus lockdowns, as Americans make their own choices for themselves and their families. Among the findings from Drs. Austan Goolsbee (former Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Barack Obama) and Chad Syverson, based on cell phone records of customers visiting over 2 million businesses:

–“While overall consumer traffic fell by 60 percentage points, legal restrictions explain only 7 of that.”

–“Individual choices were far more important and seem tied to fears of infection.”

–“Traffic started dropping before the legal [shutdown] orders were in place; was highly tied to the number of COVID deaths in the county; and showed a clear shift by consumers away from larger/busier stores toward smaller/less busy ones in the same industry.”

The study appears to indicate that (1) many Americans feared the Coronavirus even though they were being told by Republican politicians not to fear it; and (2) based on the current explosion in COVID cases, those fears were perfectly rational.

Why Trump and the Republicans will lose the election over Coronavirus

Some of Donald Trump’s responses to COVID

As Donald Trump currently trails Joe Biden in many presidential polls and is in danger of losing reelection, one of the great ironies is that Trump’s failed response to the Coronavirus (COVID-19 or COVID) could have been largely averted. In particular, if Trump had acted more like a Democrat, he might be looking at a more likely election win in November, rather than a very good chance of defeat. But Trump and the Republicans are incapable, philosophically and otherwise, of taking the necessary steps to keep us safe and help themselves, our public health and the economy to win the election. Here’s how they failed: