How stable are we?
Seven in 10 Americans say things in America feel out of control, according to a recent Economist/YouGov survey. Much of this feeling can be attributed to Donald Trump. A YouGov poll in April found only 16% of Americans picked “steady” to describe Trump, while 48% said he suffers modest or significant cognitive decline. A Reuters/Ipsos poll in February showed 61% of Americans, including 30% of Republicans, describe him as having become erratic with age. Democratic U.S. Rep. Jamie Raskin went further, demanding that the White House physician give Trump a cognitive test after Trump made disturbing comments on Iran, including that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran refused to negotiate with the United States. Across the Atlantic, French army chief Fabien Mandon said in March that the United States is becoming an “increasingly unpredictable” ally.
This poses a central question just days before the midterm elections: can the United States under Donald Trump still be relied on as a source of stability? The U.S. has long earned that role. It is one of the oldest active democratic systems in the world, and our Constitution is the world’s oldest written national constitution still in force. The U.S. dollar also makes up over 56 percent of the world’s foreign currency reserves. And we have not had a revolution in over 200 years.
Several factors indicate whether Americans and the world can still look up to the United States this way. First, the courts have provided a mixed picture as to whether the president can act like a dictator. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down Trump’s sweeping emergency tariffs last February, ruling that this power belongs to Congress. The justices also rejected Trump’s bid to restrict mail ballots for the midterms. But the Court ruled in June that Trump can fire members of independent federal agencies at will.
Bond markets also show whether investors still trust the United States when turmoil hits other major economies. In a recent example, French 10-year bond yields topped 5% on October 21, the highest since 2002, after a weekend of riots and looting in France. Money then flowed into U.S. Treasuries, pushing our 10-year Treasury yield below 5% on October 22 for the first time in a month. Former U.S. Treasury official Michael Pedroni says investors still treat U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven.
Stability further depends on a government following the rules. Here, things don’t look as good. This month, six in 10 voters told Fox News pollsters that they are extremely concerned about government corruption. A Reuters/Ipsos poll in August found that 51% of Americans say corruption under Trump is worse than under other recent administrations. Accordingly, Democrats are running against Trump and Republican corruption in addition to affordability in the midterms. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia says in a campaign video, “Corruption is why things don’t work for the American people.”
NPR reported in September that based on the polls, a Democratic midterms House victory is likely, and that either party could capture the Senate. Control of Congress determines whether a president faces checks that keep a political system in balance. If House Democrats win the majority, they plan a vast oversight agenda targeting Trump, his family and his administration. A Democratic Senate majority would also be able to block Trump’s extreme judicial nominees, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer says Democrats want the majority to stop Trump from placing “horrible justices” on the Supreme Court and lower courts.
On November 3, voters will decide whether the United States is still a stable country. Only a decisive Democratic victory will make that clear.
Photo by John Ferguson,, used under Creative Commons license. https://tinyurl.com/ycxn8bp3
