Tag Archive: stock market

Messaging Maxim #10: Don’t concede too much

Democrats: more Batman, less Bruce Wayne

There are two things that Democrats keep doing lately which are not helpful to President Joe Biden or the Democratic Party’s chances in the 2024 elections. Both of them have to do with conceding too much to Republicans. First, we see a lot of variations of “Biden is old, but Trump is ______” (crazy, a Nazi, a felon, etc.) from Democrats. While the descriptions of Trump are true, the part that often gets left out is that Donald Trump is also old. He’s nearly the same age as Biden. Moreover, Trump has displayed more signs of physical and cognitive impairment than Biden, from struggling with ramps and water bottles, to forgetting family members’ and opponents’ names, and others. Therefore, the “Biden is old but Trump …” statements are too weak.

Second, we see Democrats repeating mainstream “news” media memes that, we should all know by now, skew Republican. An example of this has occurred this week. The stock markets are hitting new records, in large part because inflation has been tamed on President Biden’s watch, and the business and banking communities are expecting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates sooner than later as a result. However, a number of financial news articles, such as this one from Reuters on Tuesday have added a third reason:

increasing expectations of a second Trump presidency in the wake of a failed assassination attempt raised hopes of a looser regulatory environment.

That is a crazy premise for a news report. While plenty of folks across the political spectrum wish Trump a speedy recovery, why would a failed assassination attempt “increas[e] expectations of a second Trump presidency”? On the contrary, according to Newsweek, “Donald Trump Does Not Get Post-Shooting Poll Boost.” Indeed, after a two-week media frenzy, President Biden is going into November’s election in an even stronger position, weathering the storm against him and now more likely to win than Trump, according to fivethirtyeight.com. Biden, not Trump, is therefore the Comeback Kid at the moment, and Democrats should never concede that Trump has a better chance to win, especially for the sole reason of being shot at.

Hit job headline against President Biden

President Biden touts “Bidenomics” in Maryland

There is a strange disconnect happening in the country, between actual economic realities and people’s perception of the economy. As to the former, many of the numbers today and during President Joe Biden‘s administration are stunningly good, including solid economic growth, record job creation and low unemployment, wage growth, rebuilding our infrastructure, $160 billion in student loan forgiveness so far, and a stock market that just hit a record 40,000, causing millions of Americans’ retirement accounts to grow. Even as to persistent inflation, which began after the U.S. economy shut down during the 2020 Trump Recession, it has been heading in the right direction (steadily down), in part thanks to efforts by President Biden and the Democrats. Those efforts include passing the Inflation Reduction Act, which, among other things, capped insulin for Medicare recipients at $35 per month and extended tax credits for electric vehicles and residential and commercial solar energy installations. Moreover, record oil production under President Biden helps keep gasoline prices down.

At the same time, however, we keep hearing stories that, as Voice of America reported last January:

Despite those robust numbers, most Americans, 68%, say the economy is worsening, according to a December 2023 Gallup poll, which showed that four in five U.S. adults rate the country’s current economic conditions as “poor” (45%) or “fair” (33%). Only 19% of people polled said the economy is “good,” in keeping with the positive economic markers.

Again, somewhat oddly, the same VOA article reported:

However, Justin Wolfers, a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan, questions the accuracy of polls and says people’s actions suggest they believe the economy is doing well.

“How would we figure out if the American consumer were in fact optimistic? I think the first thing you do is you look at consumption spending, because if you expect the economy to be terrible, you’d squirrel away money for this coming recession,” Wolfers said. “But instead, people have been spending money as if they believe, not only is the economy good, it’s going to continue to be good.”

Given these mixed signals at best on the economy, the Biden administration and leading Democrats likely need to do a better job communicating good news. However, it’s tough for President Biden and the Democrats to get proper credit for the success of “Bidenomics” when we have mainstream media headlines like this one from  Yahoo! Finance last Wednesday:

Grocery prices jumped 1.2% last month as food inflation returns to pre-pandemic levels.”

What a confusing and misleading headline. First, as the video and text accompanying the article indicate, grocery prices didn’t “jump” last month, they “dropped 0.2%” from the previous month (emphasis added). Second, if the relevant measure is year to year, again the video included in the article indicates that grocery prices increased 1.1 percent, not 1.2 percent. Third, as is indicated later in the text, this small increase reflects very low inflation. Grocery prices are moderating, and are now increasing well below the overall inflation rate. Indeed, the “pre-pandemic levels” part of the Yahoo! Finance headline means before the last round of inflation hit, i.e., when inflation was in the two percent range.

No one likes inflation, but what a poor job of journalism in the headline and lede of this particular story. Sadly, that is the kind of sloppy or biased reporting that occurs too much in our media. Likewise, when media outlets report good economic news, and then, often in the same sentence, state that President Biden isn’t receiving proper credit for the good economy, the outlets are perpetuating the problem.

How do we combat this kind of reporting? At minimum, we have to call it out and correct it, far and wide.

Photo by Maryland GovPics, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/so9TcZ

The Biden economy keeps getting stronger

Plenty of this floating around in the economy

With less than 11 months until the 2024 elections, the U.S. economy under the stewardship of President Joe Biden is looking quite strong. Here are some of the latest numbers demonstrating that so-called “Bidenomics” is working:

Economic growth last quarter, as represented by the change in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), was a stunning 5.2 percent.

Inflation continues to tick down, and is now at 3.1 percent. The Federal Reserve says it expects that number to continue to drop to the mid-2 percent range next year, and even lower in 2025, towards the Fed’s dream 2 percent target. The scenario we’re experiencing is the rare “soft landing” that avoids a recession. Moreover, President Biden deserves credit, for example, for getting the Inflation Reduction Act passed through a sharply divided Congress.

–As a result, the Fed this week decided against another interest rate increase, instead stating that it plans three rate cuts in 2024. That is welcome news for any business or individual desiring to borrow money, whether for a home mortgage, a new car, new factory equipment, etc.

–November retail sales figures just came in yesterday, and showed a surprising .3% growth versus an expected .1% decline. Apparently, U.S. consumers felt confident enough about their economic prospects to spend well on Black Friday and into this holiday season.

Who has recognized these strong economic numbers? Certainly, Wall Street, as well as institutional and individual investors, have done so. The U.S. stock market set new record highs this week on the good news and Fed actions.

So what should we do in the face of such good economic news under President Biden? Given that the name of this site is Messaging Matters, you know the answer: spread the word. It’s time to talk up the U.S. economy on your social media, at holiday dinners, in conversations with friends and colleagues, and wherever else you can do so.

Photo by Pictures of Money, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/yz2Jbn

The Republicans’ War on America

Republican attack on U.S. Capitol

In his February 2021 annual letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett, considered to be the most successful investor of all time, wrote:

Our unwavering conclusion: Never bet against America.

However, looking back at 2021, the Republican Party certainly failed to heed Mr. Buffett’s advice. The Republicans bet against America when they disbelieved and then tried to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. They bet against America when they incited, supported and funded a terrorist attack on the U.S. Capitol that was designed to stop the certification of Electoral Votes for then President-elect Joe Biden. They bet against America when they fought, and continue to fight, against sensible COVID protections such as masks, vaccinations, school accommodations, and social distancing. And they bet against America when they side with one of our most dangerous global opponents, Russia, to hurt American democracy.

Surely, the Republicans’ War on America presents some stark campaign fodder for the 2022 elections.

The coming Trump-Biden election horse race

How the media would like to portray the election

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, based on current polls, Joe Biden would beat Donald Trump in a landslide. In particular, Biden is ahead of Trump in crucial “battleground” states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida, and is even with (and in some polls ahead of) Trump in states like Arizona, Georgia and the big prize, Texas, all of which Trump won in 2016.

But our mainstream media will not let Joe Biden run away with the election if they can help it. The media want a “horse race,” and you can bet that, with barely over 90 days to go until the election, you will soon be hearing about how “the race is tightening.” Here are some ways that can happen:

Reactions to Coronavirus follow political narratives

New York National Guard responds to Coronavirus

Someone I know was down to three rolls of toilet paper last week, so he went to the store on Friday to get more, and surprise, couldn’t find any. It never occurred to him over the last few weeks to stock up. Guess which news channel he watches for Coronavirus information? Right wing Fox News viewers and Donald Trump fans (big overlap there) seemed especially caught off guard late last week, as the facts on the ground regarding Coronavirus (a/k/a COVID-19) finally destroyed their narratives.

Heretofore, Fox News, Trump and his administration officials were severely downplaying the seriousness of the virus. Trump infamously called Coronavirus, or Democratic criticism of his handling of the crisis, “a new hoax” as late as February 28. This is after Trump had been briefed about the virus back in January, had stated in an interview on January 22 that “we have it totally under control,”and spent the next two months apparently just wishing the problem would go away, because he feared the virus would hurt the stock market and his approval rating. Trump even enlisted Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross in January to say that the spread of Coronavirus in China will “help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America.” Since then, the number of Coronavirus cases and deaths in the U.S. keeps rising, the stock market has plummeted many percentage points, and we’re getting the first glimpses at a U.S. economic slowdown that could turn into a full-fledged recession. But what could have been Trump’s moment to shine, by taking swift and effective action, devolved into typical conservative Republican laissez-faire failure of government, and even conspiracy theories. As a result, Americans are less safe, and so is Donald Trump’s presidency.

Going on offense at the Thanksgiving dinner table

Peaceful looking Thanksgiving dinner

Each Thanksgiving, we see tips for Democrats on how to react to conservative Uncle Charlie when he starts raising his Republican Fox News talking points at the holiday meal. However, most such tips are reactive, and assume that our conservative relatives get to set the table first by initiating the conversation based on their talking points. We know that it’s tougher to prevail in political discussions that are framed by your opponent. Instead, how about going on offense and bringing up your points first, thereby tilting the field of debate in your favor? Here are some possible points to bring up at the Thanksgiving dinner table tomorrow: