Tag Archive: Russia

Republicans may wish they never win a tiny House majority

Is it Taps for the GOP?

As of now, the Republican Party can be fairly described as having failed miserably in the 2022 midterm elections. Considering that the party in power almost always loses many seats in Congress in the first midterms two years into a new president’s term, and given the headwinds of COVID, Russia‘s war against Ukraine, and the resulting high inflation in the U.S. and around the world, the Democrats wildly exceeded expectations of a sweeping Republican “Red Wave” this time. Specifically, the Democratic Party has retained control of the U.S. Senate with at least 50 votes (Vice President Kamala Harris can provide the 51st vote for the Democrats in case of a 50-50 tie), and it may even gain a Senate seat in the upcoming Georgia runoff election on December 6.

Additionally, Democrats have increased their number of state Governorships held, gained seats and majorities in state legislatures, defeated the Republican candidates for Secretary of State who deny the results of the 2020 presidential election (and who would have been in a position in charge of elections in their state to meddle in the 2024 elections), and, where abortion rights were on the ballot, voted to protect such rights. One only need to look at the current Republican Party meltdown, including piling on Donald Trump, to judge the political consequences of the midterms.

Nevertheless, the results of the midterm elections in the U.S. House of Representatives are still unknown. According to the Associated Press, Republicans have won 217 seats, Democrats have won 209, and the outcomes for the remaining 9 seats are still being tabulated. The magic number to gain majority control in the 435-member House is 218. Thus, a number of pundits and news media organizations are projecting that Republicans will win the narrowest of majorities, by approximately one to five seats. If that occurs, Republicans may wish it never happened. Here’s why:

In Ukraine, these three little letters mean a lot

Ukraine support rally

While reading this article from the World Bank regarding emerging markets, this sentence caused a major pause:

The invasion of the Ukraine has triggered an initial appreciation of the U.S. dollar against EM currencies ….

The Ukraine”? Haven’t we read and heard repeatedly that we shouldn’t use “the” because that feeds into the Soviet-era position that Ukraine is Russia’s territory, not its own nation? Hopefully the inclusion of “the” in the article was an oversight, and indeed there is a mention of “the war in Ukraine” earlier in the article. But often, articles from large organizations pass through more than one writer or editor, so it’s not clear that everyone at the World Bank is on the same page.

This is something to keep an eye on, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine involves not just military weapons, but weapons of words and propaganda as well.

Photo by Robert T Bell, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/DCaHhz

Anatomy of a Republican conspiracy theory

The Republicans’ positive plan

Nearly everyone knows that inflation is a problem, and that there are various proposals to solve it. However, some Republicans this year have been spouting a conspiracy theory: that the U.S. Federal Reserve is waiting until after the November 2022 midterm elections to raise interest rates, in order to help President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party. While this is just the latest in a long line of right wing conspiracy theories about the Fed, this particularly silly theory can be easily debunked a few steps:

–The current Federal Reserve Board Chairman is Republican Jerome Powell, who was appointed by Donald Trump. This fact alone should be enough to destroy the conspiracy theory. Moreover, of the seven Governors on the Fed’s board, three are Republican, which is normal during a Democratic administration. And in addition to Powell, these other Republicans were also appointed by Donald Trump. Given that the Fed Board’s votes to raise interest rates this year typically have been unanimous, one would have to believe the truly ludicrous theory that these Trump appointees are voting to help Biden and the Democrats.

–As indicated above, the Fed has been raising interest rates all year long. The Federal Funds Benchmark rate, which started at .25 percent early this year is now 3-3.25 percent, enough to sharply raise mortgage, auto loan and other rates. So if the plan was to delay rate increases until after the election, the Fed has failed miserably.

Donald Trump impeached for third time

Next stop for Donald Trump?

Those who followed last Tuesday’s fourth hearing held by the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol were treated to a stunning play-by-play of Donald Trump‘s criminal behavior in trying to overturn the 2020 presidential election. The Committee impeached Trump’s character in every way.

Most devastating to Trump were the recordings of various telephone calls he, often accompanied by others such as Rudolph Giuliani, made to Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and Arizona Speaker of the House Russell Bowers, pleading with them to entertain false claims of voter fraud, replace electors for Joe Biden with fake electors for Donald Trump, or “find votes” for Trump, all with the intent of overturning Biden’s election victories over Trump in those states. On such calls, Trump also made threats to these officials, such as threats of prosecution, for failing to follow through on Trump’s wishes.

While Raffensperger, Bowers and other state officials stood up to Trump, these calls by Trump were a big mistake, as he failed to insulate himself from criminal liability the way a Mafia don usually does, by letting others do his dirty work. As a result, Donald Trump faces a criminal investigation in Georgia, and members of the January 6 Committee say they have enough evidence to refer a criminal indictment against Trump to the U.S. Department of Justice. At minimum, Trump’s calls to Raffensperger and Bowers were as bad as his July 2019 phone call to Ukraine‘s President Vlodymyr Zelensky, during which Trump demanded that Zelensky investigate Joe Biden’s son Hunter to help Trump in his 2020 election efforts, in return for the U.S. providing weapons to Ukraine so it could defend itself against Russia. That call to Zelensky led to Trump’s first impeachment.

President Biden goes on the offensive against Putin

President Biden: tough on Russia

It has been approximately 49 days since Russia attacked Ukraine at the direction of Vladimir Putin. In recent days, President Joe Biden has changed his approach to the invasion. Specifically, President Biden’s is taking a more aggressive tack towards Russia. Here are three things that Biden is doing and saying that show his new course of action:

Arnold Schwarzenegger releases stunning video for Russian citizens and soldiers

Arnold Schwarzenegger

Yesterday, Arnold Schwarzenegger took to his social media to release a striking 9-minute video intended for the people of Russia, and the soldiers of the Russian armed forces. The video can be viewed here on Arnold’s Twitter feed:

https://twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1504426844199669762

The Atlantic published the transcript of the video here. The premise of Schwarzenegger’s video is that the Russian people are not being told the truth about Vladimir Putin‘s war on Ukraine.

The “expensive gas is the price of freedom” meme is b.s.

Relevant sign once more

Vladimir Putin‘s Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused oil prices to skyrocket. That has in turn caused gasoline prices at the pump to increase sharply. This was entirely predictable. We are having yet another war over oil. Apparently the world has learned little since both Gulf Wars. Indeed, even Japan’s attack on the United States at Pearl Harbor over 80 years ago was largely over oil.

But some folks are saying that “expensive gas is the price of freedom.” This meme can be seen all over social media. For example:

Deploy the Liberal Shock Doctrine against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Solar power, a better alternative to fascist Russian gas

The Shock Doctrine is the idea that, when disasters or wars strike, conservatives try to use the events to push their existing agenda, such as privatization of important government functions, in response. Republicans have foisted such policies in places as far-flung as Iraq and New Orleans. We have argued that, in turn, Democrats should institute their policies, i.e. a Liberal Shock Doctrine, when they are in power and disasters and wars occur. That might include, for example, stronger gun safety laws after the shock of a mass shooting, or the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, including government stimulus payments and other federal aid, which Congressional Democrats and President Joe Biden successfully brought about in 2021 after Donald Trump‘s inaction in the face of the COVID pandemic plunged the U.S. into a recession in 2020.

Russia‘s shocking and tragic invasion of Ukraine presents another opportunity for the United States, and countries around the world, to create a liberal version of the Shock Doctrine. First, countries can promote the idea of democracy (which is well-represented by Ukraine) instead of fascist dictatorship, exemplified by Russia and Vladimir Putin. But in addition, there is one specific policy that the U.S. and the world should be pushing right now:

The Republicans’ War on America

Republican attack on U.S. Capitol

In his February 2021 annual letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett, considered to be the most successful investor of all time, wrote:

Our unwavering conclusion: Never bet against America.

However, looking back at 2021, the Republican Party certainly failed to heed Mr. Buffett’s advice. The Republicans bet against America when they disbelieved and then tried to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. They bet against America when they incited, supported and funded a terrorist attack on the U.S. Capitol that was designed to stop the certification of Electoral Votes for then President-elect Joe Biden. They bet against America when they fought, and continue to fight, against sensible COVID protections such as masks, vaccinations, school accommodations, and social distancing. And they bet against America when they side with one of our most dangerous global opponents, Russia, to hurt American democracy.

Surely, the Republicans’ War on America presents some stark campaign fodder for the 2022 elections.

Messaging Maxim #9: Call out the Straw Man

Thanksgiving dinner with a side of Straw Man?

If your Thanksgiving dinner included any lively political discussion, chances are someone brought up a Straw Man argument. This is a type of logical fallacy whereby:

someone takes another person’s argument or point, distorts it or exaggerates it in some kind of extreme way, and then attacks the extreme distortion, as if that is really the claim the first person is making.

In the political arena, Republicans often use the Straw Man against Democratic proposals by making false, overbroad generalizations about the proposals, and then going after the fictional scenario they just concocted. For example, President Joe Biden and Congressional Democrats have proposed, in the Build Back Better legislation that was recently passed by the U.S. House of Representatives, to raise income taxes only on households with over $400,000 annual income. Indeed, many Americans would see lower taxes under the Democratic proposal. But you are hearing Republicans say instead that President Biden and the Democrats want to raise taxes on “middle class Americans.” A similar Republican Straw Man from the past is the PolitiFact Lie of the Year 2010 that President Barack Obama‘s Affordable Care Act was “a government takeover of healthcare,” when in fact the law left our private healthcare and health insurance systems in place. Note that such Straw Man arguments often feed existing political narratives, such as the Republican narratives that Democrats favor “Big Government” and “higher taxes.”