An “impaired” president and his wife

Since President Joe Biden‘s debate against Donald Trump on June 27, there has been a media feeding frenzy about Biden’s “performance” on TV. First, that kind of framing turns the position of president into something superficial, and leads to having actors and reality TV hosts vault to the top of voter preferences. No wonder Trump got himself elected once.

Fortunately, in the current presidential election, we have actual experience from history indicating that Joe Biden, who is not only the incumbent president but also the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee, is once again the best choice to beat Trump again. That experience can be boiled down here to five lessons from history. The first three such lessons  were mentioned in our post from a few days ago, and we can simply repeat them here:

Moreover, changing presidential nominees — or worse yet, presidents — in the middle of an election is a prescription for disaster. In March 1968, for example, with the country in turmoil over the Vietnam War and amid harsh criticism from Democrats, incumbent President Lyndon Johnson announced that he would not run for re-election. The result was Republican President Richard Nixon. Likewise, in 1972, a lack of vetting of the Democratic vice presidential nominee, Sen. Thomas Eagleton, led to surprise revelations about his mental health. After a tumultuous period, Eagleton was forced off the ticket and hastily replaced. The result was a massive Republican landslide, and the re-election of Republican President Richard Nixon. Then in 1980, Sen. Ted Kennedy launched a vicious primary challenge to incumbent Democratic President Jimmy Carter. The Democrats lost to Republican Ronald Reagan in another landslide. While the mainstream media may love political instability, American voters do not.

These three lessons can be considered cautionary tales, i.e., reasons not to dump incumbent President Joe Biden just four months before the election. Biden was subject to primaries during the first half of this year, and obviously, that would have been the time to challenge his fitness to serve another term. President Biden won those primaries, and more than enough delegates to capture the Democratic presidential nomination, easily.

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris

At President Joe Biden‘s State of the Union address last Thursday night, many viewers noticed Vice President Kamala Harris seated behind Biden’s right shoulder, looking radiant, mature, and even presidential. This visual was a good reminder that the time for Democrats to raise Vice President Harris’ profile, and to boost her future presidential prospects, is now.

First, it should be noted that being Vice President is often a thankless job. Nearly 100 years ago, then-Vice President John Nance Garner stated that the vice presidency “isn’t worth a bucket of warm spit,” although many historians have indicated that the real word Garner used was not “spit.” More recently, biographer Robert Caro described in detail how Lyndon Johnson went from being one of the most powerful people in America as U.S. Senate Majority Leader, to being left out of nearly all important meetings and decisions as Vice President under President John F. Kennedy.

However, according to Caro, Johnson accepted the job of Kennedy’s vice presidential running mate in large part because he researched and determined that a significant number of presidents did not complete their full terms, usually because they died in office, and that, accordingly, numerous vice presidents had succeeded to the presidency. That is in addition to the vice presidents who went on to win election for president after their predecessors completed their terms. This is exactly what happened to Lyndon Johnson in November 1963, when President Kennedy was assassinated. Johnson served the remainder of Kennedy’s term, then went on to win re-election in 1964 by a huge landslide. Since Johnson’s presidency, one Vice President, Gerald Ford, automatically became president in 1974 when President Richard Nixon resigned under threat of impeachment and removal by Congress, and another Vice President, George H.W. Bush, won the presidency after serving two terms in his job. Joe Biden also was elected president after he had completed two terms as vice president under President Obama, with Donald Trump‘s single term taking place after the Obama presidency.

All of this is relevant because, if and when President Biden gets re-elected this November, he will be 81 years old, turning 82 that same month (it should also be noted that Trump is almost the same age, turning 78 this June). Therefore, as a simple actuarial matter, Kamala Harris needs to be prepared for the possibility that she might be called on to step into the presidency at a moment’s notice sometime before January 20, 2029. Additionally or alternatively, Harris will be the likely Democratic presidential front-runner in the 2028 elections.