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Donald Trump is running Bob Dole’s campaign from 1996

Bob Dole, seated in wheelchair

Besides their obvious policy differences, one of the most striking contrasts between the presidential campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Governor Tim Walz on one hand, and Donald Trump and J.D. Vance on the other hand, is the difference in tone. Specifically, Harris and Walz are running a campaign full of joy and positivity, to the point where Republicans are trying (desperately, and unsuccessfully) to make fun of Harris for — get this — smiling and laughing. Trump and Vance instead are going with false doom and gloom.

These difference were apparent in last Tuesday’s presidential debate between Harris and Trump. In her very first answer (regarding the economy), Harris set the tone for her approach, stating, “I believe in the ambition, the aspirations, the dreams of the American people.” Accordingly, Harris outlined her plans for what she called an “opportunity economy,” including tax cuts to young families with children and to small start-up businesses. Harris often says that, her whole career, she has worked “for the people.”

In contrast, Trump began by lying that “we’ve had a terrible economy,” and then launched into his theme of the night, fear-mongering about immigrants. According to Trump, “Our country is being lost. We’re a failing nation.” Likewise, Trump said:

[W]e have millions of people pouring into our country from prisons and jails, from mental institutions and insane asylums. And they’re coming in and they’re taking jobs that are occupied right now by African Americans and Hispanics and also unions. Unions are going to be affected very soon. And you see what’s happening.

And this time, bizarrely, Trump launched a new attack against immigrants:

In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs. The people that came in. They’re eating the cats. They’re eating — they’re eating the pets of the people that live there.

Not coincidentally, most reviews and polls from across the political spectrum indicated that Harris trounced Trump in the debate.

The Trump – Harris presidential debate expectations game

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump to appear together

Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are holding their first presidential debate tomorrow night on ABC. A number of Democrats are saying that Harris will “wipe the floor” with Trump. Likewise, The New York Times recently published an article entitled “Fear of a ‘mean, bully Trump’ showing up at Harris debate has his advisers on edge.” That is a mistake for a couple of reasons.

First, the proper way to play the debate expectations game is to play down your candidate’s abilities and chances, and play up those of your opponent. Similar to what many sales people will tell you, it’s better to under promise and over deliver than to do the opposite.

Second, while Trump has been increasingly rambling and incoherent at speeches and rallies, there is little wrong with his debate record. In 2016, Trump cleared a large Republican primary field, in large part by dominating the debates, and went on to beat Hillary Clinton in the Electoral College. In 2024, just over six weeks ago, Trump debated President Joe Biden, and the result was Biden leaving the presidential race. Trump’s tactics, which include interruptions, intimidation, lies, childish outbursts, and other breaches of tradition and decorum, arguably work well for him. Indeed, the framing of the above-cited New York Times article raises legitimate questions of whether the paper is trying to game the debate in favor of Trump in advance by lowering expectations for him.

On the flip side, Harris was knocked out of the 2020 Democratic Party primaries early on after several debates. Thus it’s fair to say that those debates did not make her the standout or catapult her into the lead. One could therefore argue that Trump has the debate advantage over Harris.

At best, predicting what will happen in a presidential debate is too speculative. As in war, we really don’t know ahead of time how it might turn out.

Photo by FolsomNatural, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/HBzHpl

Kamala Harris is giving Donald Trump woman problems

Vice President Kamala Harris, engaging as always

After running scared for days, Donald Trump reportedly has agreed to the September 10 presidential debate against Vice President Kamala Harris in which Trump had previously agreed to participate against President Joe Biden. Trump’s initial reluctance to debate Harris is the latest indication that Trump does not know how to run against her. A large part of Trump’s problem is that Harris is a woman, and indeed, a very powerful, tough and accomplished woman.

As most people know, Trump was confident that he would beat Biden, who was showing signs of age when trying to campaign in addition to his very hectic presidential responsibilities, which include working hard to get Israel and Hamas to agree to a cease-fire in Gaza. Biden’s popularity was also low, despite achieving more in one term (rescuing America from the depths of the COVID pandemic, saving the economy from the Trump Recession, etc.) than any president in recent memory.

The Democratic Party’s stunningly successful convention

DNC 2024 — packed and picturesque

By any measure, the Democratic Party’s four-day national convention (DNC) in Chicago, which concluded last night, successfully outdid last month’s Republican Party convention (RNC) in every way. For example, the DNC speakers, performers and attendees were full of enthusiasm and joy, while the RNC was a dark and dismal affair. Moreover, this DNC was all the more remarkable given that President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 election campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris only one month ago.

From a production standpoint, the DNC looked beautiful and sounded great. The stage set and background screens were bold and colorful, dominated by Democratic blue. The invited speakers, which included just about every Democratic Party luminary, were interspersed with musical performances from the likes of Stevie Wonder, Pink, Patti LaBelle, John Legend, Lil John, and a crowd-pumping deejay. According to some analysts, the DNC “made for great TV,” a highly desired description which rarely applies to political conventions. And the DNC television and online viewership ratings bore this out, smashing the rating for the RNC. To top things off, the Harris campaign collected an astounding $500 million in donations in its first month.

With Kamala Harris replacing Joe Biden, Trump is stuck

Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden

Donald Trump has had a bad month. Ever since July 21, when President Joe Biden announced that he would not seek re-election and that he was endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic Party presidential nomination, Trump has been flummoxed at every turn, and is losing support.

For most of this year, it was the other way around. President Biden received negative coverage from the “news” media, even after many successes. Biden was singled out as “old,” even though Trump is nearly the same age. Trump was leading in most polls, especially in the “battleground” or “swing” states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin — where most analysts think the election will be decided.

Then came the first Trump/Biden presidential debate on June 27. Biden, after criss-crossing the western hemisphere from Normandy to Hollywood, having been over-prepared by his staff, and with a cold (followed by a COVID diagnosis), had a rough night. Republicans and the press pounced, Democrats panicked, and the “Biden is old” meme sunk in. After several weeks of one prominent Democrat after another saying that Biden should drop out of the campaign, the President finally did.

Since then, however, the 2024 election has been upended. Harris has been crushing Trump in fundraising, voter enthusiasm,  crowds, and endorsements by big unions and others. Harris’s choice of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate has also added tremendous energy to the Democratic ticket. Walz has proven to be immensely popular and is one of the most dynamic running mates in recent memory. Walz’s resume as farmer, teacher (and union member), winning football coach, Army National Guard veteran, Congressman and Governor, as well as his plain-spoken, decent manner, are motivating the Democratic base and attracting Midwestern voters and others who might not usually be part of the base.

With Harris and Walz, the era of Democrats playing “we go high” defense is over

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz

At the 2016 Democratic National Convention, First Lady Michelle Obama said about Republicans, “when they go low, we go high.” That was after more than seven years of Republicans going ever lower and lower, both in their rhetoric and their actions. Some of these many Republican low points include falsely and repeatedly questioning President Barack Obama‘s citizenship (i.e. “birtherism”), and denying President Obama a hearing for his U.S. Supreme Court nominee, Merrick Garland.

Eight years later, it appears Democrats finally have had enough of Republicans’ low behavior. The fantastically enthusiastic response of Democratic voters to the 2024 presidential ticket of Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz demonstrate that the party’s base wants leaders who not only are smart and competent, but who are also willing to go on offense against Donald Trump, his running mate J.D. Vance, and the Republican Party.

First of all, in supporting Vice President Harris, Democrats are getting someone with a background as a tough prosecutor. Thus, the theme of The Prosecutor vs. The Convicted Felon (meaning of course Donald Trump, already convicted of 34 felonies and facing more prosecutions) is a natural one that will surely be used over and over.

Moreover, by choosing Tim Walz as her running mate, Vice President Harris doubled down on taking the fight to the Republicans. Indeed, that became obvious even before Harris announced Walz as her running mate, as Walz coined the term “weird” to describe Trump and Vance back on July 23. This “weird” meme has really taken off, and in his first appearance with Harris, in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, Walz went one better, saying that Trump and Vance were both “creepy, and yes, just weird as hell.” In his speech, Walz even alluded to Vance’s problems with couches (those unfamiliar with the subject can easily look it up). This shows that Walz is savvy when it comes to new media, such as Tik Tok, that he says his Gen Z kids use.

Kamala Harris presidential campaign goes all in on the “Freedom” theme

Vice President Kamala Harris, taking freedom back

As far back as 2013, we stressed the importance of Democrats framing their arguments in terms of promoting “freedom.” Specifically, we wanted to take that term back from the Republicans, because freedom is a deeply held American value, and we know that Democrats, not Republicans, are the ones who truly believe in it. The great news is that, in recent years, leading Democrats, including President Joe Biden, have been promoting the idea of “freedom.” While this trend might not have been too noticeable other than to folks who were specifically looking at Democratic messaging, Vice President and presumptive 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has amped up the “freedom” theme to the point where it is now on the radar of many voters and journalists. We couldn’t be more pleased with these developments.

Just in the past week, since Harris began her 2024 presidential campaign after being endorsed by President Biden, her first speech in Wisconsin strongly laid out the “freedom” theme. Initially, Harris stated that “we believe in a future … where every worker has the freedom to join a union.” Harris went on:

Ours is a fight for the future. And it is a fight for freedom. Generations of Americans before us led the fight for freedom. And now, Wisconsin, the baton is in our hands. We who believe in the sacred freedom to vote will make sure every American has the ability to cast their ballot and have it counted. We who believe that every person in our nation should have the freedom to live safe from the terror of gun violence will finally pass red flag laws, universal background checks and an Assault Weapons Ban. And we who believe in reproductive freedom will stop Donald Trump‘s extreme abortion bans because we trust women to make decisions about their own bodies, and not have their government tell them what to do. And when Congress passes a law to restore reproductive freedoms, as President of the United States, I will sign it into law. So Wisconsin, ultimately in this election, we each face a question: what kind of country do we want to live in? Do we want to live in a country of freedom, compassion and rule of law, or a country of chaos, fear and hate? …. Do we believe in freedom? …. And are we ready to fight for it?

Now let’s talk about Trump

Donald Trump, convicted of 34 felonies

The mainstream “news” media threw themselves a big party over the last two weeks. Ever since President Joe Biden, with a cold, a lifelong stuttering problem, and after crisscrossing the western hemisphere from Normandy to Los Angeles, had a bad performance at the presidential debate on June 27 (arguably only for the first 20 minutes), the “news” outlets have run stories about him nearly 24/7. The coverage has been relentless and unfair, for example, focusing on the few people in Congress who say Biden should withdraw from the election (or who are wishy-washy), rather than the overwhelming majority who support him to beat Donald Trump. While President Biden just gave a forceful speech at the NATO Summit, the coverage instead focuses on “Biden’s Fitness Under a Microscope.”

What do these media outlets want? One answer is: eyeballs and money. The Guardian revealed their media business plan with this headline yesterday: “‘Blitz primary’: the scenario that could turn replacing Biden into a ‘riveting spectacle.'” The other thing many such outlets want is to defeat President Biden and the Democratic Party. These big media corporations increasingly skew Republican. For example, David Zaslav, CEO of Warner Brothers Discovery (which owns CNN) just tried to play coy about not favoring one presidential candidate over the other. However, he gave away the game by saying that:

We just need an opportunity for deregulation, so companies can consolidate and do what we need to be even better.

Of course, Zaslav and everyone else knows that such talk of “deregulation” is the classic language of the Republican Party.

What these media outlets are not talking much about during their anti-Biden celebration is Donald Trump. Trump has reportedly been mostly in hiding since the debate, recognizing that the media are doing a better job of bashing Biden than he, Trump, could ever do. When Trump does emerge briefly from the golf course, it’s to tell lies and spout bizarre “false grievances” such as “we don’t eat bacon anymore.”

Time for Democrats to boost Kamala Harris

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris

At President Joe Biden‘s State of the Union address last Thursday night, many viewers noticed Vice President Kamala Harris seated behind Biden’s right shoulder, looking radiant, mature, and even presidential. This visual was a good reminder that the time for Democrats to raise Vice President Harris’ profile, and to boost her future presidential prospects, is now.

First, it should be noted that being Vice President is often a thankless job. Nearly 100 years ago, then-Vice President John Nance Garner stated that the vice presidency “isn’t worth a bucket of warm spit,” although many historians have indicated that the real word Garner used was not “spit.” More recently, biographer Robert Caro described in detail how Lyndon Johnson went from being one of the most powerful people in America as U.S. Senate Majority Leader, to being left out of nearly all important meetings and decisions as Vice President under President John F. Kennedy.

However, according to Caro, Johnson accepted the job of Kennedy’s vice presidential running mate in large part because he researched and determined that a significant number of presidents did not complete their full terms, usually because they died in office, and that, accordingly, numerous vice presidents had succeeded to the presidency. That is in addition to the vice presidents who went on to win election for president after their predecessors completed their terms. This is exactly what happened to Lyndon Johnson in November 1963, when President Kennedy was assassinated. Johnson served the remainder of Kennedy’s term, then went on to win re-election in 1964 by a huge landslide. Since Johnson’s presidency, one Vice President, Gerald Ford, automatically became president in 1974 when President Richard Nixon resigned under threat of impeachment and removal by Congress, and another Vice President, George H.W. Bush, won the presidency after serving two terms in his job. Joe Biden also was elected president after he had completed two terms as vice president under President Obama, with Donald Trump‘s single term taking place after the Obama presidency.

All of this is relevant because, if and when President Biden gets re-elected this November, he will be 81 years old, turning 82 that same month (it should also be noted that Trump is almost the same age, turning 78 this June). Therefore, as a simple actuarial matter, Kamala Harris needs to be prepared for the possibility that she might be called on to step into the presidency at a moment’s notice sometime before January 20, 2029. Additionally or alternatively, Harris will be the likely Democratic presidential front-runner in the 2028 elections.

Vice President Kamala Harris sounds the Democratic Party 2024 election theme

Vice President Kamala Harris pushing the 2024 Democratic theme

By now, most people have processed the results of the November 7 off-year elections, and they agree that the Democratic Party did very well. This includes, for example, the largely red state of Kentucky, where Democratic Governor Andy Beshear won reelection in a strong performance. Moreover, in Virginia, Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin lost big time when Democrats not only held onto their state Senate majority, they also flipped the state House of Delegates to Democratic control.

Not coincidentally, abortion was on the minds of Virginia voters, as Gov. Youngkin had proposed to ban most abortions after 15 weeks. Democrats ran and won on protecting abortion rights in opposition to the Governor. Likewise, the abortion rights issue was even more directly on the ballot in Ohio, where voters approved a state constitutional amendment protecting access to abortion and other forms of reproductive healthcare.

These results follow previous special elections, such as in Kansas in August 2022, where voters rejected a proposed Republican amendment that said there was no right to abortion in the state. Thus, it’s apparent that, after the Republican-majority U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June of last year, thereby taking away the constitutional right to abortion and leaving the issue to the states, the Democratic Party pro-choice position keeps prevailing in special elections, and promises to be a strong issue for the Democrats in the 2024 elections.

At the same time, as we have noted, the Democrats — from President Joe Biden to members of Congress and others — have turned the Republicans’ anti-abortion positions and rulings into a broader theme of “freedom.” And now, Vice President Kamala Harris has joined this “freedom” caucus. As this C-SPAN video shows, on Wednesday morning after the November 7 elections, VP Harris stepped out of the White House, walked up to the microphones, and had this to say:

Last night, I think the American people made clear that they are prepared to stand for freedom, and for the individual freedoms and the promise of freedom in America …. I think that if you look at from the midterms to last night, from California to Kansas, Ohio to Virginia, the voters said, “look, the government should not be telling a woman what to do with her body.”

Democrats using the “freedom” theme is music to our ears, as we have been advocating this since 2013. The added benefit is that Democrats are taking “freedom” back from the Republicans, who have tried for so long to own the idea. It’s a great theme for Democrats to run on for 2024.

Photo by The Democratic Party, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/FjJ9mL