Tag Archive: inflation

With Kamala Harris replacing Joe Biden, Trump is stuck

Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden

Donald Trump has had a bad month. Ever since July 21, when President Joe Biden announced that he would not seek re-election and that he was endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic Party presidential nomination, Trump has been flummoxed at every turn, and is losing support.

For most of this year, it was the other way around. President Biden received negative coverage from the “news” media, even after many successes. Biden was singled out as “old,” even though Trump is nearly the same age. Trump was leading in most polls, especially in the “battleground” or “swing” states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin — where most analysts think the election will be decided.

Then came the first Trump/Biden presidential debate on June 27. Biden, after criss-crossing the western hemisphere from Normandy to Hollywood, having been over-prepared by his staff, and with a cold (followed by a COVID diagnosis), had a rough night. Republicans and the press pounced, Democrats panicked, and the “Biden is old” meme sunk in. After several weeks of one prominent Democrat after another saying that Biden should drop out of the campaign, the President finally did.

Since then, however, the 2024 election has been upended. Harris has been crushing Trump in fundraising, voter enthusiasm,  crowds, and endorsements by big unions and others. Harris’s choice of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate has also added tremendous energy to the Democratic ticket. Walz has proven to be immensely popular and is one of the most dynamic running mates in recent memory. Walz’s resume as farmer, teacher (and union member), winning football coach, Army National Guard veteran, Congressman and Governor, as well as his plain-spoken, decent manner, are motivating the Democratic base and attracting Midwestern voters and others who might not usually be part of the base.

30 minutes of grief, then a pivot from Biden to Harris

The new 2024 election optics

We are big supporters of President Joe Biden. There have been many posts here outlining his accomplishments and tremendous successes, including:

–strengthening America’s economy and creating a record number of jobs;

–leadership and respect around the world, as well as expanding NATO;

–protecting the rights of women and minorities;

–successfully placing hundreds of federal judges on the bench, including U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson;

–forgiving over one hundred billions of dollars in student loans (despite Republican efforts to stop it); and more.

Likewise, we have laid out the reasons why President Biden deserved Democratic support for his presidential re-election efforts, such as the fact that he is the incumbent president who decided to seek another term, and that he won the 2024 primaries (with over 14 million Democratic votes) very handily.

But reality has taken a different turn. Whether events of the past few weeks are fair or not, President Biden has announced that he will no longer seek the nomination for president in 2024. Instead, Biden has fully endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for the job.

Normally, we would want to spend days grieving over and processing what happened. However, with the 2024 elections just 105 days away, and the Democratic National Convention (where the presidential and vice presidential candidates are formally nominated) only 27 days from now, there is no time for that. Instead, we grieved for about half an hour, and then pivoted to Vice President Harris.

Joe Biden and Mark Cavendish — a tale of two old warriors

Bike racer Mark Cavendish, the Manx Missile

Right now, the Tour de France bicycle race is taking place. It is considered one of the most grueling of all sports events; essentially the equivalent of running several marathon races a day, every day, for 21 days straight. The terrain and conditions include mountains, cobblestones, headwinds, rain, and oppressive summer heat. Such a sport is, naturally, a young man’s game. Age 39 in the Tour is considered ancient.

Yet, one of the biggest stories of this year’s Tour de France is the return, out of retirement, of 39 year-old racer Mark Cavendish. A sprinter from the Isle of Man, known as the Manx Missile, Cavendish was tied for the record for most Tour de France stage wins (34), and desperately wanted to break that record. Last year, Cavendish entered the Tour with the hope of breaking the record, and announced that he would retire afterward. Unfortunately, he crashed and broke his collar bone during the early stages, without the win. Cavendish has had many bad days as a bike racer, including a number of serious crashes and injuries, but he has always gotten back up on his bike. He ended his retirement to come back this year, and, with strong team supporting him, he won the stage yesterday and broke the all-time record.

If the parallels to President Joe Biden are not apparent, let’s name them:

Hit job headline against President Biden

President Biden touts “Bidenomics” in Maryland

There is a strange disconnect happening in the country, between actual economic realities and people’s perception of the economy. As to the former, many of the numbers today and during President Joe Biden‘s administration are stunningly good, including solid economic growth, record job creation and low unemployment, wage growth, rebuilding our infrastructure, $160 billion in student loan forgiveness so far, and a stock market that just hit a record 40,000, causing millions of Americans’ retirement accounts to grow. Even as to persistent inflation, which began after the U.S. economy shut down during the 2020 Trump Recession, it has been heading in the right direction (steadily down), in part thanks to efforts by President Biden and the Democrats. Those efforts include passing the Inflation Reduction Act, which, among other things, capped insulin for Medicare recipients at $35 per month and extended tax credits for electric vehicles and residential and commercial solar energy installations. Moreover, record oil production under President Biden helps keep gasoline prices down.

At the same time, however, we keep hearing stories that, as Voice of America reported last January:

Despite those robust numbers, most Americans, 68%, say the economy is worsening, according to a December 2023 Gallup poll, which showed that four in five U.S. adults rate the country’s current economic conditions as “poor” (45%) or “fair” (33%). Only 19% of people polled said the economy is “good,” in keeping with the positive economic markers.

Again, somewhat oddly, the same VOA article reported:

However, Justin Wolfers, a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan, questions the accuracy of polls and says people’s actions suggest they believe the economy is doing well.

“How would we figure out if the American consumer were in fact optimistic? I think the first thing you do is you look at consumption spending, because if you expect the economy to be terrible, you’d squirrel away money for this coming recession,” Wolfers said. “But instead, people have been spending money as if they believe, not only is the economy good, it’s going to continue to be good.”

Given these mixed signals at best on the economy, the Biden administration and leading Democrats likely need to do a better job communicating good news. However, it’s tough for President Biden and the Democrats to get proper credit for the success of “Bidenomics” when we have mainstream media headlines like this one from  Yahoo! Finance last Wednesday:

Grocery prices jumped 1.2% last month as food inflation returns to pre-pandemic levels.”

What a confusing and misleading headline. First, as the video and text accompanying the article indicate, grocery prices didn’t “jump” last month, they “dropped 0.2%” from the previous month (emphasis added). Second, if the relevant measure is year to year, again the video included in the article indicates that grocery prices increased 1.1 percent, not 1.2 percent. Third, as is indicated later in the text, this small increase reflects very low inflation. Grocery prices are moderating, and are now increasing well below the overall inflation rate. Indeed, the “pre-pandemic levels” part of the Yahoo! Finance headline means before the last round of inflation hit, i.e., when inflation was in the two percent range.

No one likes inflation, but what a poor job of journalism in the headline and lede of this particular story. Sadly, that is the kind of sloppy or biased reporting that occurs too much in our media. Likewise, when media outlets report good economic news, and then, often in the same sentence, state that President Biden isn’t receiving proper credit for the good economy, the outlets are perpetuating the problem.

How do we combat this kind of reporting? At minimum, we have to call it out and correct it, far and wide.

Photo by Maryland GovPics, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/so9TcZ

The Biden economy keeps getting stronger

Plenty of this floating around in the economy

With less than 11 months until the 2024 elections, the U.S. economy under the stewardship of President Joe Biden is looking quite strong. Here are some of the latest numbers demonstrating that so-called “Bidenomics” is working:

Economic growth last quarter, as represented by the change in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), was a stunning 5.2 percent.

Inflation continues to tick down, and is now at 3.1 percent. The Federal Reserve says it expects that number to continue to drop to the mid-2 percent range next year, and even lower in 2025, towards the Fed’s dream 2 percent target. The scenario we’re experiencing is the rare “soft landing” that avoids a recession. Moreover, President Biden deserves credit, for example, for getting the Inflation Reduction Act passed through a sharply divided Congress.

–As a result, the Fed this week decided against another interest rate increase, instead stating that it plans three rate cuts in 2024. That is welcome news for any business or individual desiring to borrow money, whether for a home mortgage, a new car, new factory equipment, etc.

–November retail sales figures just came in yesterday, and showed a surprising .3% growth versus an expected .1% decline. Apparently, U.S. consumers felt confident enough about their economic prospects to spend well on Black Friday and into this holiday season.

Who has recognized these strong economic numbers? Certainly, Wall Street, as well as institutional and individual investors, have done so. The U.S. stock market set new record highs this week on the good news and Fed actions.

So what should we do in the face of such good economic news under President Biden? Given that the name of this site is Messaging Matters, you know the answer: spread the word. It’s time to talk up the U.S. economy on your social media, at holiday dinners, in conversations with friends and colleagues, and wherever else you can do so.

Photo by Pictures of Money, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/yz2Jbn

To tout President Biden’s accomplishments, make it bite-sized

President Biden boosts high-speed trains and infrastructure

As we are now less than one year from the 2024 elections, there have been some lists of President Joe Biden‘s many accomplishments floating around online, including from the White House itself. The lists are quite long and impressive, comprising legislation (American Rescue Plan, Inflation Reduction Act, Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act), executive orders (creating new national monuments, steps to curb gun violence, AI safety measures, and more. These accomplishments are important to share, because mainstream media outlets often refuse to acknowledge them. However, the comprehensive lists of what President Biden has achieved can be overwhelming, especially for anyone trying to recite these accomplishments in conversation, on video, or even in writing.

Therefore, a better method might be to pick one subject at a time, and focus on that. For example, earlier this year, the Biden team began enlisting what some call “an army” of mostly young social media influencers, and even gave them a special briefing room at the White House. These influencers use social media such at TikTok to create short pieces on topics in which they have chosen to specialize, such as financial policy, gun violence, marijuana decriminalization, electric vehicles (EVs), and more.

While these social media influencers are well-known, with large audiences and familiar platforms, there is no reason why the rest of us cannot similarly use the tools of communication at our disposal — blogs, podcasts, YouTube channels, old-fashioned letters to the editor of local or national newspapers, website comments, and even face-to-face conversations with friends and family at upcoming Thanksgiving and other holiday dinners — to share all this good Biden administration news. In doing so, sticking to one topic at a time might be most palatable to those listeners and readers with short attention spans due to holiday food comas or otherwise.

Besides being able to hold people’s attention spans, a further advantage of this bite-sized approach to sharing President Biden’s accomplishments is that it lets individual Democratic voters play up the issues that are most important to them.  For instance, one who thinks climate change is the most crucial issue we face can talk about the Inflation Reduction Act, with its tax credits for EVs and solar energy installations. Another person who is most passionate about protecting abortion rights in the wake of the Republican majority U.S. Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade can bring up President Biden’s executive orders to safeguard abortion and contraception, and so on. In this manner, all of the important issues likely would get aired, no one’s eyes would glaze over with exhaustion, and President Biden would get the full credit he deserves.

Photo by Maryland GovPics, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/GaEPVS

Biden Boom update — the economy continues to gain strength

Lots of this floating around the U.S. economy

Back in December 2021, we published the Biden Boom” story. At the time, we noted how, in less than one year in office, President Joe Biden had already made great strides in the U.S. economy. That included, for example, getting economic growth up and unemployment down from the 2020 Trump Recession caused in large part by Donald Trump‘s failure to act on COVID. At the time, we suggested spreading this good economic news.

Now it’s more than 18 months later, and while Trump is busy begging for donations to defend himself against a growing pile of criminal indictments, President Biden has been busy helping all of us. As a result, the U.S. economy continues to defy the predictions of the doom and gloomers, including many in the mainstream media. This continuing Biden Boom is the great untold story of 2023. For example:

–Unemployment is only 3.6 percent, near the all-time low

–The U.S. has created over 13 million jobs since President Biden took office, which shatters the job creation record for a president’s 4-year term in just two and a half years.

–Inflation, which rose sharply due to the economic rescue steps needed after Trump’s COVID failures, is now down to three percent.

–U.S. Gross Domestic Product (i.e. economic growth) is still going strong at well over 2 percent annually.

–U.S. manufacturing growth has sharply rebounded under President Biden, and according to Axios, “outpaces the rest of the world.”

While all of this good economic news is occurring, a crucial moment took place last Wednesday, when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the Federal Reserve staff no longer forecasts a U.S. recession. This means the U.S. is likely headed for the much sought-after but rare “soft landing” of lowering inflation without causing a recession. Large companies like Caterpillar, reporting very high profits, agree.

Don’t fall for the Republican shock and awe

GOP House Speaker battle looked like this

Republicans don’t know how to govern effectively, but they do know how to grab the media spotlight. This was demonstrated during the recent Republican battle for U.S. House Speaker. After narrowly winning the House majority in the 2022 midterm elections, the GOP’s first task in the new year was to elect a Speaker. They failed miserably at this job, requiring a historic 15 votes before finally electing Kevin McCarthy.

But what seemed to get everyone’s attention were the 20 or so Republican House representatives-elect, many of whom are members of the so-called “Freedom Caucus,” who battled against McCarthy’s speakership, and at least one who fought on McCarthy’s side. The members who seemed to be on camera or in front of microphones all the time especially included Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz. Others on hand to a slightly lesser extent were familiar names such as Lauren Boebert and Jim (“Gym”) Jordan, so nicknamed because of his alleged involvement in a sexual abuse scandal involving wrestlers at Ohio State University. We’re not going to mention these names again in this post. Such representatives are known more for being superficial blowhards who say outrageous things rather than for the often dull but crucial work of legislating.

In short order, the GOP House Speaker election became about Republican media stars rather than about policy and substance. Such camera-hogging tactics worked, as McCarthy reportedly had to make numerous concessions to these members in order to secure their votes. What we call the GOP Civil War, also known as Republicans in Disarray, was on full, ugly display. But we already saw how a media celebrity made it into the White House six years ago, and the disastrous results that followed. The last thing we should do is feed that shallow, destructive process again by focusing our full attention on those Republican media hustlers.

Anatomy of a Republican conspiracy theory

The Republicans’ positive plan

Nearly everyone knows that inflation is a problem, and that there are various proposals to solve it. However, some Republicans this year have been spouting a conspiracy theory: that the U.S. Federal Reserve is waiting until after the November 2022 midterm elections to raise interest rates, in order to help President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party. While this is just the latest in a long line of right wing conspiracy theories about the Fed, this particularly silly theory can be easily debunked a few steps:

–The current Federal Reserve Board Chairman is Republican Jerome Powell, who was appointed by Donald Trump. This fact alone should be enough to destroy the conspiracy theory. Moreover, of the seven Governors on the Fed’s board, three are Republican, which is normal during a Democratic administration. And in addition to Powell, these other Republicans were also appointed by Donald Trump. Given that the Fed Board’s votes to raise interest rates this year typically have been unanimous, one would have to believe the truly ludicrous theory that these Trump appointees are voting to help Biden and the Democrats.

–As indicated above, the Fed has been raising interest rates all year long. The Federal Funds Benchmark rate, which started at .25 percent early this year is now 3-3.25 percent, enough to sharply raise mortgage, auto loan and other rates. So if the plan was to delay rate increases until after the election, the Fed has failed miserably.

Dr. Oz Senate campaign implosion reaches comical levels

Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. and U.S. Senate candidate John Fetterman

The 2022 Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race between television personality Dr. Mehmet Oz on the Republican side and Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman is capturing tons of national media attention, but not for the reasons Dr. Oz would prefer. The  Oz campaign has been especially tone-deaf, making one mistake after another, and Fetterman and his campaign have been quick to capitalize on each one.

Essentially, the Oz-Fetterman race has turned into a Culture War, to the great disadvantage of Dr. Oz. Usually, it’s the Republicans who try to run on Culture War issues, whether it’s abortion, attacking LGBTQ people and their rights, book banning, guns, etc., mostly as a distraction, because Republicans are extremely unpopular on economic and other issues of importance to most Americans. In Pennsylvania, however, Fetterman has turned the tables on Republicans regarding cultural issues.