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Five historic reasons why Biden is the one to beat Trump

An “impaired” president and his wife

Since President Joe Biden‘s debate against Donald Trump on June 27, there has been a media feeding frenzy about Biden’s “performance” on TV. First, that kind of framing turns the position of president into something superficial, and leads to having actors and reality TV hosts vault to the top of voter preferences. No wonder Trump got himself elected once.

Fortunately, in the current presidential election, we have actual experience from history indicating that Joe Biden, who is not only the incumbent president but also the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee, is once again the best choice to beat Trump again. That experience can be boiled down here to five lessons from history. The first three such lessons  were mentioned in our post from a few days ago, and we can simply repeat them here:

Moreover, changing presidential nominees — or worse yet, presidents — in the middle of an election is a prescription for disaster. In March 1968, for example, with the country in turmoil over the Vietnam War and amid harsh criticism from Democrats, incumbent President Lyndon Johnson announced that he would not run for re-election. The result was Republican President Richard Nixon. Likewise, in 1972, a lack of vetting of the Democratic vice presidential nominee, Sen. Thomas Eagleton, led to surprise revelations about his mental health. After a tumultuous period, Eagleton was forced off the ticket and hastily replaced. The result was a massive Republican landslide, and the re-election of Republican President Richard Nixon. Then in 1980, Sen. Ted Kennedy launched a vicious primary challenge to incumbent Democratic President Jimmy Carter. The Democrats lost to Republican Ronald Reagan in another landslide. While the mainstream media may love political instability, American voters do not.

These three lessons can be considered cautionary tales, i.e., reasons not to dump incumbent President Joe Biden just four months before the election. Biden was subject to primaries during the first half of this year, and obviously, that would have been the time to challenge his fitness to serve another term. President Biden won those primaries, and more than enough delegates to capture the Democratic presidential nomination, easily.

Joe Biden and Mark Cavendish — a tale of two old warriors

Bike racer Mark Cavendish, the Manx Missile

Right now, the Tour de France bicycle race is taking place. It is considered one of the most grueling of all sports events; essentially the equivalent of running several marathon races a day, every day, for 21 days straight. The terrain and conditions include mountains, cobblestones, headwinds, rain, and oppressive summer heat. Such a sport is, naturally, a young man’s game. Age 39 in the Tour is considered ancient.

Yet, one of the biggest stories of this year’s Tour de France is the return, out of retirement, of 39 year-old racer Mark Cavendish. A sprinter from the Isle of Man, known as the Manx Missile, Cavendish was tied for the record for most Tour de France stage wins (34), and desperately wanted to break that record. Last year, Cavendish entered the Tour with the hope of breaking the record, and announced that he would retire afterward. Unfortunately, he crashed and broke his collar bone during the early stages, without the win. Cavendish has had many bad days as a bike racer, including a number of serious crashes and injuries, but he has always gotten back up on his bike. He ended his retirement to come back this year, and, with strong team supporting him, he won the stage yesterday and broke the all-time record.

If the parallels to President Joe Biden are not apparent, let’s name them:

Lessons from the Biden – Trump presidential debate

President Joe Biden on Memorial Day 2024

Last night, President Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first presidential debate of 2024. We had predicted that the debate, hosted by CNN at its Atlanta studios with no live audience, would be “a bust.” It was, but in a slightly different way than we had thought. Many viewers and analysts seem to agree that Trump told tons of lies but was forceful and dynamic, and Biden told the truth but gave a very weak performance. We then learned afterward that Biden had a cold, which gave him a hoarse voice and other ill effects that hindered his performance.

The election is happening in just over four months, and a second, and probably final, debate between Biden and Trump is scheduled for September 10 on ABC. Presumably, Trump feels he did just fine last night and doesn’t have to do anything different next time. Thus, the question for Biden and the Democrats is, what lessons can be learned, and what is the best course going forward to maximize the chances of winning the election? Several things come to mind:

The Biden – Trump presidential debate will be a bust

Donald Trump may be unhappy with the debate rules

Are you tired of the media hype that surrounds events like the Super Bowl and the Oscars nowadays? Do you think they have become overblown and almost unwatchable? Don’t worry, you can add presidential debates to the list as well. As we have noted, the presidential debates have become inane and, due to their format, even cringeworthy. From inadequate response times to interruptions to flag pins, the debates are designed to provide more heat than light.

This year, the first presidential debate between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump takes place just two days from now, on Thursday, June 27. The debate is being hosted and aired by CNN at its Atlanta studios, and is receiving plenty of advance hype. Furthermore, two rule changes make this debate different from most presidential debates: First, there will be no live audience. Second, the candidate’s microphones will be muted unless the candidate has been prompted by the moderators to answer a question.

We think these changes will make Thursday’s Biden/Trump debate not only inane as usual, but extra boring. The audience often plays a part, cheering for their candidate, even when asked by the moderators not to do so. And the microphone muting will likely eliminate Trump’s childish outbursts when someone else is speaking, as Trump did so often to his Republican primary rivals, his Democratic opponents, and even the moderators in years past. Add to that the scheduling of this debate, during early summer when voters are probably thinking more about barbecues and camping trips than presidential politics, and we have the makings for a snooze fest.

Ultimately, this debate is likely to be a wash. It’s doubtful that either candidate will stumble so badly as to lose many votes, or give such brilliant, hard-hitting substantive responses as to win them. Rather, as often happens, when the debate ends, each candidate’s campaign officials and fans will quickly and loudly proclaim that their guy won. And then they’ll ask for donations.

Photo by Ron Cogswell, used under Creative Commons. https://is.gd/qGdeGt

Biden hammers Trump with new ad campaign

President Joe Biden, statesman

President Joe Biden‘s reelection campaign announced a new $50 million advertising campaign this week, aimed at drawing what is described as “contrasts” between Biden and his opponent Donald Trump in advance of their first debate scheduled for June 27. Based on the first ad released as part of this ad campaign (view the ad here), “contrasts” is a nice way to put it. The ad, titled “Character Matters,” begins by stating that Trump has “been convicted of 34 felonies, found liable for sexual assault, and he committed financial fraud.” The contrast part comes in next:

Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s been working, lowering healthcare costs, and making big corporations pay their fair share. This election is between a convicted criminal who’s only out for himself, and a president who’s fighting for your family.”

There are several reasons why this new Biden ad is so good. First, it forcefully goes on offense, something for which Democratic voters have been clamoring for decades, and for which we have been calling since the beginning of Messaging Matters. Second, Biden’s ad is accurate, as opposed to some deceptively edited or “deepfake” ad or video of the type that Republicans are now creating and distributing. Such accuracy is important both to maintain Democratic standards, and because, if the ad was inaccurate, the mainstream media would spend their time attacking it. Third, the ad contrasts Trump’s criminal convictions with Biden’s competent, effective work for Americans, adding the zinger that Trump is “only out for himself.” In short, the Biden campaign ad does a lot, in a simple way, in 30 seconds.

Moreover, this was just the first ad of the new Biden campaign effort. Suffice it to say, we cannot wait for the next one.

Photo by Number 10, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/AbBULo

President Biden takes on Russia, dictators and Republicans at Normandy

The ultimate cost of freedom at Normandy

Marking the 80th anniversary of the allied “D-Day” invasion, President Joe Biden joined the leaders of America’s World War II allies (France, Britain, Canada and others) in Normandy, France yesterday, to deliver a powerful message to the world’s dictators and “bullies” (see video here). Describing World War II as being about “democracy” versus “dictators,” and likewise “the battle between freedom and tyranny,” Biden then said that, after defeating tyranny in World War II, “we established NATO, the greatest military alliance in the history of the world.” Biden then took on Russia‘s invasion and war against Ukraine, comparing it directly to World War II:

The struggle between dictatorship and freedom is unending. Here in Europe, we see one stark example. Ukraine has been invaded by a tyrant bent on domination. Ukrainians are fighting with extraordinary courage, suffering great losses, but never backing down…. The United States and NATO, and a coalition of more than 50 countries, standing strong with Ukraine. We will not walk away. Because if we do, Ukraine will be subjugated, and it will not end there. Ukraine’s neighbors will be threatened. All of Europe will be threatened. And make no mistake: the autocrats of the world are watching closely to see what happens in Ukraine, to see if we let this illegal aggression go unchecked. We cannot let that happen. To surrender to bullies, to bow down to dictators, is simply unthinkable.

A tale of two Memorial Days

President Joe Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris and Defense Secy. Lloyd Austin at Arlington National Cemetery, 5/27/24

When then-U.S. Senator John Edwards campaigned for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2003 and 2004, one of his main themes was that “there are two Americas,” meaning those who are well-off economically (or who don’t face discrimination based on race, religion, gender, etc.), and the rest of us. Edwards was correct, but there is also another major divide in America: the divide between the political right and left. That right-left political divide often shows up, for example, in the “news” sources that people choose, from the powerful Republican media machine (Fox “News,” Newsmax, OAN, the New York Post, the Wall Street Journal, etc.) on the right to a smattering of blogs, which cannot compete with such Republican machine, on the left. And nowhere was this right-left political divide more on display last weekend than in the Memorial Day messages from President Joe Biden and his upcoming election opponent, Donald Trump.

President Biden, the father of a son who served in the military and who died prematurely (though he was not killed in combat), displayed his well-known patriotism, compassion and decency in his Memorial Day speech, given at Arlington National Cemetery. Some of Biden’s quotes included:

Warning signs for Donald Trump in Pennsylvania

The Liberty Bell may toll for Joe Biden in 2024

On Tuesday, Pennsylvania held its 2024 Democratic and Republican presidential primaries. While President Joe Biden and Donald Trump each won their respective party’s primary as expected, more warning signs popped up for Trump. Specifically, while President Biden won the Democratic primary with over 88 percent of the vote and over 926,000 votes cast, Trump had just over 83 percent of the vote and only 789,000 total votes.

This Trump deficit is significant because Pennsylvania is one of a small number of “battleground” states that will likely determine the 2024 presidential election. As the Pennsylvania publication York Daily Record explains:

Pennsylvania has a long history of being consequential in presidential elections — choosing 20 of the last 25 presidents.

With 20 electoral votes up for grabs, it is considered by some analysts as the most important state in the 2020 presidential election.

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‘Campaigns know if their messaging works here, it can probably work nationally,’ said Jesse White, a political strategist at Perpetual Fortitude, a Democratic consulting and digital management firm. ‘To be able to come in here as a national campaign and have the resources and messaging to effectively win a state as diverse as Pennsylvania is real work.’

Trump is on trial, but what should we call it?

Suggestion from the 2018 State of the Union

Donald Trump is on trial right now in New York City, facing criminal charges for “business fraud.” However, that term is really the last step that began with (1) having adulterous affairs (2) with porn star Stormy Daniels and Playboy model Karen McDougal (3) just months after Trump’s wife Melania gave birth to son Barron, then (4) covering up the Daniels affair by paying $130,000 in “hush money” to Daniels (5) through Trump’s lawyer Michael Cohen, as well as (6) involving the Trump-friendly National Enquirer in paying $150,000 to McDougal to kill the story of her affair with Trump, and (7) paying off a Trump Tower doorman who claimed to have a story about a child Trump allegedly fathered out of wedlock. According to the New York prosecutors, the covering up of such payments by Trump and others constitutes falsifying New York State business records. Ultimately, all of these actions were designed to influence the 2016 presidential election by keeping important information about Trump’s character and crimes out of the news. And while the cover-ups worked to some extent in 2016, presumably the facts are not hidden anymore.

Understandably, however, the news media have had a bit of a hard time describing the subject matter of Trump’s trial for purposes of short headlines or to appeal to the short attention spans of many readers and viewers. Thus, we have seen the trial described as:

O.J. Simpson and the Norm MacDonald connection

O.J. Simpson in his TV pitchman days

As so much of the news coverage this week indicates, former football star and acquitted murder suspect O.J. Simpson died Wednesday of cancer. Simpson was preceded in death by comedian Norm MacDonald, who also died of cancer, in 2021. However, the connection between Simpson and MacDonald is much stronger than just their both having had cancer.

MacDonald was “Weekend Update” anchor on NBC‘s Saturday Night Live (SNL) from 1994-1998, coinciding with the period in which Simpson was on trial for murdering his ex-wife, Nicole Brown, and her friend Ron Goldman. Taking advantage of the the unprecedented news coverage of the Simpson trial, MacDonald made a cottage industry out of mocking what he believed was the very guilty Simpson. MacDonald’s many hard-hitting jokes about Simpson’s guilt have been collected on YouTube and can be found here and here. Perhaps MacDonald’s most infamous O.J. joke on SNL came after the jury acquitted Simpson of murder in 1995. MacDonald said: “Well, it is finally official: murder is legal in the state of California.” Eventually, this relentless mockery of Simpson led to Norm being fired, reportedly because NBC West Coast division President Don Ohlmeyer was a close friend of Simpson and could no longer stand to see his buddy kicked around on TV by MacDonald. As the previous link indicates, Rolling Stone magazine dubbed NBC’s MacDonald firing number four on its list of “The 50 Worst Decisions in TV History.”