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How the Republican cave on the Trump Shutdown and border wall will take shape

Protests against the Trump Shutdown

As the Trump Shutdown of the federal government drags on, and the polls continue to blame Trump and the Republicans, the pressure will eventually become too great on the GOP. They will have to cave to the Democrats (who now have majority control in the House of Representatives), both on Trump’s desired border wall, and the untenable idea that Trump could shut down the federal government because he hasn’t gotten his way on the wall. So now the question is, how will Trump and the Republicans cave without appearing to capitulate to the Democrats, which would cause great anger among the Republican base? The answer is likely to turn on interpretations of the terms “wall,” “fence” and “border security.”

Democrats hang Trump Shutdown on Donald Trump

Sign indicating Washington, D.C. national park land and monuments closed due to Trump Shutdown

When you have the facts on your side, and you communicate them in an effective and dynamic way, it’s good policy and good politics. That is the situation the Democrats are in regarding the current U.S. government shutdown. Democrats have correctly labeled it the “Trump Shutdown.”

The 2018 midterms were a change election

Google page telling people to “Go Vote” on Election Day

If the Devil had shown up Tuesday morning and had said to Democrats, “I’ll give you control of the House of Representatives, but my price is the loss of a few more seats in the Senate where you’re already in the minority,” that would have been a good deal all day long. That result is just what happened in the 2018 midterm elections. While all the votes have not yet been processed, we know that Democrats have taken control of the House of Representatives, and that Republicans have kept their slender majority in the Senate, possibly improving on it by several seats. The flipping of the House to the Democrats, however, represents tremendous change, while Republicans keeping their Senate majority, even possibly winning a few more seats, does not. Moreover, at the state level, the Democrats won numerous victories which could change the political landscape further. Additionally, many of the victors this year were women and people of color (often both), the vast majority of them Democrats. Finally, younger voters came out in much bigger numbers this year.

Would Republicans vote for a Democratic House majority?

“Stand on Every Corner” protest, St. Paul, MN

This year, several prominent Republicans have either left the Republican Party altogether, or at least have called for fellow Republicans to vote for Democratic candidates in this year’s midterm elections. In June, conservative columnist George Will called for Republicans to vote Democratic this November, primarily to punish Congressional Republicans for not exercising their constitutional powers to stand up to Donald Trump. At about the same time, longtime Republican strategist Steve Schmidt announced that he was leaving the GOP, citing the Trump administration’s cruel family separation policy. Schmidt was followed earlier this month by former U.S. Congressman David Jolly of Florida, who announced that he and his wife have left the GOP. And Republican pundit William Kristol heavily criticizes Donald Trump and seems to be implicitly cheerleading the Democrats in the upcoming elections, with tweets such as:

There are more examples of Republican defections to varying degrees. So the question is, can and should Democrats realistically call upon Republicans to vote for Democratic candidates, at least for their U.S. House Representative, in the midterm elections?

Trump, you can’t handle the Truman

President Harry Truman at NAS Key West, FL, 1950

Right now, folks inside the White House are high-fiving each other, cracking open beers to celebrate Donald Trump‘s “win” in confirming Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. However, there’s probably at least one staffer running around, warning that the Kavanaugh confirmation process has galvanized Democratic voters for the upcoming midterm elections which are less than 30 days away. This comes on top of voter enthusiasm levels that already favor Democrats this year. In particular, Democrats have a very good chance of winning back majority control in the U.S. House of Representatives. (The Democrats’ Senate forecast is not as good, largely because this year, many more Democratic than Republican Senate incumbents are up for re-election.)

Thus, some White House advisors likely are telling Trump that, to prepare for a possible Democratic House beginning in January, Trump will have to act like Harry Truman. You may recall that Democratic President Harry S. Truman won re-election in 1948 largely by running against the Republican majority “Do-Nothing Congress.” In Trump’s case, that’s likely to be one-half of a Congress. Therefore, we can call the likely Trump strategy “Half a Harry.” Here’s why that strategy probably won’t work for Donald Trump:

More Americans talking Trump impeachment

Trump Impeachment sign at 2018 Women’s March

Discussions about the possibility of impeaching Donald Trump are gaining popularity in numerous circles. First, Trump himself is talking about his potential impeachment, warning that “the market would crash” if he were impeached. Apparently, Republicans must continually instill fear in their supporters to get them to the polls. Likewise, Republicans such as House Speaker Paul Ryan warned supporters that, if the Democrats win back the majority in the House of Representatives this November, “you’ll have gridlock, you’ll have subpoenas.” In response to reports of Ryan warning that Democrats would hold Trump accountable, Democratic House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi tweeted:

Sexing up that boring word ‘infrastructure’

Millau Viaduct, France

The word “infrastructure” puts people to sleep. It’s up there with “tax tables” in the attention-getting zone. However, few things are more important to America than having modern, well-maintained roads, bridges, airports, rail systems, electrical grids and Internet backbones. As Donald Trump and the Republicans have dropped the ball in this area, Democrats have a great issue to run on in the 2018 and 2020 elections. First, however, the Democrats could inject a little sex into the dry terminology on this issue.

When it comes to gun violence, think, pray, vote

Republicans’ dream? Lady Liberty holding a gun instead of a torch.

After another deadly school shooting involving an AR-15 semiautomatic rifle, this time in Parkland, Florida, Republicans responded with their usual calls for “thoughts and prayers.” Perhaps the worst offender was Florida’s own U.S. Senator, Republican Marco Rubio, who proved that his previous prayers didn’t work:

However, when Rubio and other Republicans want something on any other issue, from tax cuts to taking away a woman’s freedom over her own body to military spending to taking away our affordable healthcare, they don’t pray, they vote. That’s just what Americans should do here.

2018 brings calls for Democrats to focus on winning Congressional elections

U.S. Senate under Republican control

2018 has begun, and it is an election year. While so-called “off-year” (Congressional, state and local, but not presidential) elections often garner disappointingly low voter turnout on the Democratic side, calls have already emerged for Democrats to focus, and work hard, on winning back one or the other houses of Congress, or both. For example, yesterday, progressive website Crooks and Liars published a piece entitled: Take Back The House In 2018, But Don’t Forget The Senate! At the same time, former Nixon White House counsel John Dean tweeted:

Both of these suggestions, focusing primarily on the House or the Senate, have merit.

Democratic Congresswoman hammers GOP Tax Scam

Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-WA)

If you want to see how to conduct a hard-hitting line of questioning, look no further than the House Ways and Means Committee‘s November 6 hearing on the markup of the Republicans’ wildly misnamed “Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.” The Democrats have already termed the Republicans’ bill the “GOP Tax Scam” for its central elements of cutting taxes for wealthy individuals and corporations, adding well over a trillion dollars to the national debt, and trying to make up for some of the shortfall by taking away important deductions for middle and lower income Americans, including home mortgages, medical expenses, state and local taxes, student loans, and teacher classroom expenses. Corporations, however, would not have to give up these or comparable deductions under the GOP Tax Scam. At last week’s hearing, Democratic Congresswoman Suzan DelBene of Washington took this theme one step further, by calmly asking a series of simple questions to Tom Barthold, the Chief of Staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation. As seen here in the video and in the transcript below, DelBene’s questions cut to the heart of the GOP Tax Scam’s fundamental unfairness: