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Glimmer of hope as Democrats overperform in special elections

Elon Musk, a big loser on Tuesday

Tuesday was a good day for the Democratic Party. Their candidates either won, or at least exceeded expectations and overcame Republican obstacles, in various special elections around the country.

In Wisconsin, an important battleground state which Donald Trump won by less than one point in 2024, Democratic state Supreme Court candidate Susan Crawford won her election, despite Elon Musk pouring millions into the race for the Republican candidate. Musk even publicly handed out $1 million dollar checks to two voters to show off his investment in the race. The result was thus a blow to Musk, to Trump (who had also endorsed the Republican candidate), and to the idea that money alone can win elections.

In Florida, Democratic candidates did better than expected in two U.S. House special elections. In the 6th District, which the Republican won by 33 percent last November, Democratic candidate Josh Weil narrowed that gap by more than half, to 14 points. Likewise, in Florida’s 1st Congressional District, which the Republican candidate (incumbent Matt Gaetz) won by 32 percent in 2024, Democratic candidate Gay Valimont lost to her Republican rival by 14.6 points. Given that Florida has millions of seniors and that Trump and the Republicans are planning dangerous cuts to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, these and other Florida Congressional districts may become even more competitive for Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections.

While outright victories would have been delightful in these Florida Congressional races, that was never expected in such deeply Republican districts. Nevertheless, it’s likely that Republicans are running scared for 2026. How do we know? One good indicator is that, last week, Trump had to withdraw the nomination of Elise Stefanik for U.N. Ambassador and send her back to her New York seat in the U.S. House, out of fear of losing the razor-thin Republican House majority in 2026 or before.

Photo by Paul (Becker1999), used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/BkIGTv

Are you ready for a 2026 Democratic campaign theme?

2024 Democratic get out the vote effort

It’s no secret that Donald Trump and his administration are going around wrecking the government, as well as many of our protections, from environmental to labor to financial to health, and more. It’s going to be a bad four years not just for Democrats, but for most Republicans, Independents and everyone else. But at least the 2026 midterm elections present a big opportunity for Democrats to take back power, especially in the razor-close U.S. House of Representatives, and thwart some of the very bad things the Republicans are trying to do legislatively.

We already talked about how Democrats can and must unify to win the 2026 midterms. The other thing the Democratic Party will need is an effective, unifying theme on which to campaign. While it’s still very early, some obvious patterns are forming that will lend themselves to such a theme.