Kamala Harris and Donald Trump to appear together

Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are holding their first presidential debate tomorrow night on ABC. A number of Democrats are saying that Harris will “wipe the floor” with Trump. Likewise, The New York Times recently published an article entitled “Fear of a ‘mean, bully Trump’ showing up at Harris debate has his advisers on edge.” That is a mistake for a couple of reasons.

First, the proper way to play the debate expectations game is to play down your candidate’s abilities and chances, and play up those of your opponent. Similar to what many sales people will tell you, it’s better to under promise and over deliver than to do the opposite.

Second, while Trump has been increasingly rambling and incoherent at speeches and rallies, there is little wrong with his debate record. In 2016, Trump cleared a large Republican primary field, in large part by dominating the debates, and went on to beat Hillary Clinton in the Electoral College. In 2024, just over six weeks ago, Trump debated President Joe Biden, and the result was Biden leaving the presidential race. Trump’s tactics, which include interruptions, intimidation, lies, childish outbursts, and other breaches of tradition and decorum, arguably work well for him. Indeed, the framing of the above-cited New York Times article raises legitimate questions of whether the paper is trying to game the debate in favor of Trump in advance by lowering expectations for him.

On the flip side, Harris was knocked out of the 2020 Democratic Party primaries early on after several debates. Thus it’s fair to say that those debates did not make her the standout or catapult her into the lead. One could therefore argue that Trump has the debate advantage over Harris.

At best, predicting what will happen in a presidential debate is too speculative. As in war, we really don’t know ahead of time how it might turn out.

Photo by FolsomNatural, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/HBzHpl