Is it too late for Trump?

Black Lives Matter protesters, at odds with Donald Trump

In 2012, President Barack Obama and his reelection campaign team did something very smart: they came out early and defined Obama’s opponent, Willard Mitt Romney, in a very unflattering way before Romney could define himself to the voters. Specifically, the Obama campaign defined Romney as an out-of-touch elitist, Mr. One Percent, with his offshore bank accounts and his dressage horse. This reinforced an existing narrative about Romney, one that Romney himself fed with his “47 percent” video, ultimately leading to Romney’s defeat.

This year, Joe Biden‘s campaign is taking a similar approach towards Donald Trump. Biden smartly has been running a general election-style campaign against Trump from day one. This was a risky strategy, since Biden had to battle some 24 challengers for the Democratic Party presidential nomination before he could run against Trump as the nominee. However, the strategy worked, and Biden is now the official Democratic nominee, something that would have happened sooner if not for primaries that were delayed due to the Coronavirus (COVID-19).

2020, meet 1968

President Lyndon Johnson and Defense Secretary Robert McNamara, 1968

America torn apart by unrest. An overarching issue that has caused the deaths of many thousands of Americans. Separate protests and riots over the death of a black man. It’s a good description of 2020, right? Actually, this also describes the year 1968. There are some striking parallels between these two years, and they do not bode well for Donald Trump or the Republican Party.

In 1968, Lyndon Johnson, who had become president after John F. Kennedy‘s assassination in November 1963, faced the twin issues of the Vietnam War and racial unrest. The war so mired President Johnson and tore apart the country that, in March 1968, Johnson announced that he would not run for reelection. And then, just four days later, as if to ensure that America would remain in strife through the election, black civil rights leader Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr. was assassinated. Coming after years of bloody civil rights battles and documented police brutality, King’s murder led to protests and riots around the country. Johnson’s decision not to run for another term was already based in part in the reality that his approval rating throughout 1968 mostly hovered in the low forties range, having declined steadily from the highs of nearly 80 percent in his first few months after taking office, and was largely attributable to the Vietnam War.

Donald Trump’s attack on social media free speech doesn’t pass the SMELL test

Donald Trump whining about Twitter looks like this

On Thursday, just two days after being fact-checked on Twitter, Donald Trump signed an Executive Order which attempts to regulate free speech on social networks. Specifically, Trump’s Order tries to “clarify” a federal law passed by Congress in 1996, the Communications Decency Act, by taking away free speech protections that the law granted over online platforms such as Twitter, Facebook and other social media. Trump’s Executive Order further provides:

The (Attorney General’s) working group will also monitor or create watch-lists of users based on their interactions with content or other users.

Essentially, Trump, with the assistance of U.S. Attorney General William Barr, wants to compile a Nixon-style “enemies list” of people who write unflattering things about Trump or other Republicans, and then punish them. This idea, which we call the Social Media Enemies Lengthy List (“SMELL”), as part of Trump’s attempt to trample on the legislative power of Congress, doesn’t pass the smell test, either legally, constitutionally or otherwise. In fact, it is a weak, laughable move that will likely blow back in Trump’s face.

President Barack Obama is making Donald Trump look really bad

Last weekend, President Barack Obama gave a pair of stunning speeches by video to this spring’s high school and Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCU) graduates, respectively. The speeches were full of all of the things so many voters love about President Obama, especially his intelligence, empathy and Democratic themes of positivity and progress. Likewise, Obama touched upon the theme of empowerment for which he is known, telling the graduates that they need to vote and otherwise be involved in their communities and society in order to create the positive changes they desire. What may have been most jarring to Americans and others around the world was the contrast between President Obama’s intelligent, articulate, positive and unifying speeches, and the very different kinds of remarks that Donald Trump has been making. Below is the video of President Obama’s speech to the high school graduates:

Donald Trump’s awful election season

Donald Trump speaks to reporters separated by social distancing, April 2020

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) emergency could have been a shining moment for Donald Trump. American voters really only need two things from their president in a major crisis: First, they need unity. Second, they need competence. Unfortunately, Trump has been unable to display either one.

Trump has utterly failed to unify America. Recall George W. Bush after the 9/11 attacks in 2001, standing on a pile of rubble at “Ground Zero” that, just three days earlier, had been the World Trade Center, telling the American people:

I can hear you! The rest of the world hears you! And the people – and the people who knocked these buildings down will hear all of us soon.

For a short time, at least, the country was unified, and Bush’s approval rating was a sky-high 90 percent (until he misused such unity, for example, to start an unrelated, disastrous war in Iraq).

Likewise, Bill Clinton gave us comforting words of unity after the 1995 domestic terrorist attack on the Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City, in both a speech immediately after the attack and a separate memorial prayer service four days later. Barack Obama also provided a unifying message of strength in announcing that U.S. forces had killed Osama bin Laden in 2011, after which crowds of young people gathered outside the White House to cheer President Obama’s action.

Coronavirus: what should Las Vegas do?

The Las Vegas Strip, in many ways a potential Coronavirus petri dish

During and after the 2008 Bush Great Recession, Nevada and its most populous city, Las Vegas, were hit especially hard. Home prices tumbled, foreclosures and home abandonments exploded, unemployment went through the roof, and construction dried up. Now during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, Las Vegas faces even greater odds. At least during the Great Recession, visitors who had the means to visit Las Vegas could still do so, and workplaces that could stay in business financially weren’t forced to close for outside reasons. This time around, however, even folks who are flush with cash aren’t feeling lucky enough to get on an airplane, fly to Vegas, stay in a hotel, and partake of all of the options there, such as gambling, dining, dancing, etc. Hotels, restaurants, casinos and attractions are almost all closed. Conferences, sports events and concerts have been canceled. That puts many thousands of people in the area out of work, and worried about whether Las Vegas can ever recover from its Coronavirus hit, let alone recover in time to save the economy, their jobs and their homes.

Joe Biden’s big week

Barack Obama and Joe Biden teamed up again this week.

Presumptive Democratic Party presidential nominee Joe Biden has had a big start to his week. On Monday, Senator Bernie Sanders endorsed Biden’s candidacy, just five days after ending (the modern parlance is “suspending”) his own presidential campaign. Sanders, whom we have criticized in the past, deserves kudos for ending his campaign and endorsing Biden before the Democratic National Convention, if any, takes place. In 2016, even though Sanders was similarly all but eliminated from a mathematical standpoint by Hillary Clinton at this point, he kept his campaign going through the convention, which led to a lot of ugliness and divisive attacks that arguably hurt Clinton in the general election against Donald Trump. This time around, although Sanders regrettably is asking supporters still to vote for him in the remaining primaries so that he can amass more delegates and possibly gain more liberal concessions from Biden, at least Democratic voters, office holders, and other officials can now make the shift toward the general election campaign against Trump.

Coronavirus creates 2020 election narratives for the Democrats

Joe Biden, the anti-Trump on Coronavirus and everything else

Now that Bernie Sanders has withdrawn from the Democratic Party presidential nomination contest to leave Joe Biden as the presumptive nominee, the 2020 general election against Donald Trump has begun in earnest. One way or the other, the Coronavirus (COVID-19) will be the overarching issue in this year’s elections. The performance and behavior of Trump and Republican elected officials presents many lines of attack for the Democrats, as well as opportunities to show off their Democratic Party values. Two such lines of attack especially come to mind:

Florida’s Coronavirus response is completely irrational

Satirical Coronavirus poster that may come true in Florida

As we indicated several days ago, there is a dangerous split right now between Democratic and Republican officials in their response to the Coronavirus (COVID-19). Nowhere is this split more apparent than in Florida.

The state of Florida is near the top in both highest median age and highest percentage of seniors (age 65 and over) of any state. As seniors, they are more likely to support Republicans. And not coincidentally, many of these seniors live in a state of fear. This includes of death, fear of running out of money before death, built-in tribal fear of minorities (if they are older white folks), fear of change, fear of technology, etc. Republicans play to these fears (recall, for example, Trump’s initial presidential campaign announcement focusing on rapist, drug-dealing immigrants from Mexico; as well as the “Caravan.”) Likewise, Republican propaganda network Fox News plays up these fear narratives, including Scary Brown People (Blacks = “Thugs,” Latinx = “Illegals,” Muslims = “Terrorists”), as well as that other fear, “Big Bad Government.”

Trump Coronavirus failures mirror Republican failures of government

Normally crowded, now nearly empty Sixth Ave. in Manhattan

Donald Trump‘s timeline of failures in addressing the Coronavirus (COVID-19) health emergency is now well-known. This includes severely downplaying the crisis, even calling it a “hoax,” for many crucial weeks; failing to take strong action such as ordering a national lockdown or even using the Defense Production Act; and having his subordinates say things like:

–the spread of Coronavirus in China will “help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America” (Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross); and

–“We have contained this …. it’s pretty close to airtight” (National Economic Council Director Lawrence Kudlow).

Unfortunately, Trump’s lack of preparedness for the Coronavirus even after being warned of a possible pandemic, and lack of action after the crisis began, reflects the Republican philosophy of government, and is something we have seen from Republicans before.