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President Biden scores decisive New Hampshire Democratic primary write-in victory

President Joe Biden, on a primary roll

With some votes still left to be counted, President Joe Biden won the New Hampshire 2024 Democratic presidential primary this past Tuesday without even having his name on the ballot. Biden captured 64 percent of the vote, with a margin of victory of approximately 45 percent over the second-place finisher. What is really remarkable is that all of President Biden’s votes were write-ins. That’s because, as we indicated a few weeks ago, at the urging of President Biden and his campaign, the Democratic National Committee (DNCvoted to request New Hampshire and Iowa to move their primary and caucus, respectively, to a later date, after that of South Carolina (which holds its Democratic primary on February 3), in order to “increase diversity” early in the process. However, while Iowa agreed to move its Democratic caucus to March 5, New Hampshire refused to do so. As a result, President Biden did not place his name on the ballot for the New Hampshire primary, thus only write-in votes would count for Biden.

Normally, there would have been approximately 33 Democratic delegates at stake in New Hampshire. However, due to the dispute with the DNC, no Democratic delegates will be allocated to any candidate in this year’s Granite State primary. As for the remaining states, it will take roughly 1,965-1,970 delegates (different sources give slightly different numbers) to win the Democratic presidential nomination this year.

Two ways to spin Trump’s Iowa caucus win

The media’s dream for the Republican primaries

Last Monday night, as expected Donald Trump won the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucus. Trump’s win, with 51 percent of the vote, ahead of Ron DeSantis (21.2 percent) and Nimarata Nikki Haley (19.1 percent), was the largest margin of victory in Iowa Republican presidential caucus history. Indeed, the Associated Press called the contest for Trump just 30 minutes after the polls had closed, and other news outlets quickly followed suit.

At the same time, however, some Democrats, such as Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, said that the Iowa results showed “the weakness of Donald Trump.” According to Pritzker, “Almost half of the base of the Republican Party showing up for this caucus tonight voted against Donald Trump.” Pritzker added that the Iowa results were therefore a good sign for President Joe Biden, who is running for re-election.

The 2024 presidential primaries are coming up fast, with controversy

Vermin Supreme, 2024 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary candidate

It’s hard to believe, but the first 2024 presidential primary contest is just 11 days away. Specifically, on January 15, Iowa will hold its Republican presidential caucus. In advance of the Iowa GOP caucus, CNN is holding another Republican presidential debate just five days beforehand, on January 10. However, only three candidates qualified for the CNN debate: Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis and Nimarata Nikki Haley. Since Trump previously announced that he was skipping these debates, it will be just DeSantis and Haley, who are dead even in the Republican polls (though both are way behind Trump), flinging mud at each other. Both DeSantis and Haley are spending millions of dollars (either directly or via supportive PACs) to attack the other.

Eight days after the Iowa caucus, on January 23, comes the New Hampshire primaries, both on the Democratic and Republican side. Here’s where the controversy begins, and it’s with the Democrats. At the urging of President Joe Biden and his campaign, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) voted in favor of asking New Hampshire and Iowa to move their primary and caucus, respectively, to a later date, after that of South Carolina (which holds its 2024 Democratic primary on February 3), in order to “increase diversity” at the front end of the primary process. However, while Iowa agreed to move its Democratic caucus back to March 5, New Hampshire closely holds onto its first-in-the-nation primary status, which is written into state law, and both New Hampshire Democrats and Republicans (including Republican Governor Chris Sununu and Republican Secretary of State David Scanlan) opposed any such change.

Nikki Haley’s Civil War views demonstrate what is at stake in the 2024 elections

Nimarata Nikki Haley

This past Wednesday, Republican presidential candidate Nimarata Nikki Haley (née Randhawa) caused a political firestorm at a New Hampshire town hall event when she gave a shockingly evasive answer to a question about the U.S. Civil War. Specifically, a voter in the audience asked Haley, “What was the cause of the United States Civil War?” The following exchange then occurred:

Haley: Well, don’t come with an easy question or anything. I mean, I think the cause of the Civil War was basically how government was going to run. The freedoms and what people could and couldn’t do. What do you think the cause of the Civil War was?
Q: I’m not running for president. I wanted to hear your view on the cause of the Civil War.
Haley: I mean, I think it always comes down to the role of government. We need to have capitalism, we need to have economic freedom, we need to make sure that we do all things so that individuals have the liberties, so that they can have freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom to do or be anything they want without government getting in the way.
Q: Thank you. In the year 2023, it’s astonishing to me that you’d answer that question without mentioning the word “slavery.”
Haley: What do you want me to say about slavery?
Q: You’ve answered my question. Thank you.
Haley: Next question.

Approximately 12 hours later, after sharp criticism from many quarters, including from President Joe Biden, Haley’s campaign tried to correct her blunder, releasing a Thursday morning radio interview in which Haley said, “Of course the Civil War was about slavery,” further calling the war “a stain on America.” Haley went on to reiterate that “freedom matters. And individual rights and liberties matter for all people.” However, the damage was done. Now Haley either looks like a racist, or just another mealy-mouthed politician saying different things depending on the audience and their reaction, rather than based on her own principles. In deciding which is the true Haley, the following quote from poet Maya Angelou comes to mind:

When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time.

The Biden economy keeps getting stronger

Plenty of this floating around in the economy

With less than 11 months until the 2024 elections, the U.S. economy under the stewardship of President Joe Biden is looking quite strong. Here are some of the latest numbers demonstrating that so-called “Bidenomics” is working:

Economic growth last quarter, as represented by the change in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), was a stunning 5.2 percent.

Inflation continues to tick down, and is now at 3.1 percent. The Federal Reserve says it expects that number to continue to drop to the mid-2 percent range next year, and even lower in 2025, towards the Fed’s dream 2 percent target. The scenario we’re experiencing is the rare “soft landing” that avoids a recession. Moreover, President Biden deserves credit, for example, for getting the Inflation Reduction Act passed through a sharply divided Congress.

–As a result, the Fed this week decided against another interest rate increase, instead stating that it plans three rate cuts in 2024. That is welcome news for any business or individual desiring to borrow money, whether for a home mortgage, a new car, new factory equipment, etc.

–November retail sales figures just came in yesterday, and showed a surprising .3% growth versus an expected .1% decline. Apparently, U.S. consumers felt confident enough about their economic prospects to spend well on Black Friday and into this holiday season.

Who has recognized these strong economic numbers? Certainly, Wall Street, as well as institutional and individual investors, have done so. The U.S. stock market set new record highs this week on the good news and Fed actions.

So what should we do in the face of such good economic news under President Biden? Given that the name of this site is Messaging Matters, you know the answer: spread the word. It’s time to talk up the U.S. economy on your social media, at holiday dinners, in conversations with friends and colleagues, and wherever else you can do so.

Photo by Pictures of Money, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/yz2Jbn

Republicans still playing defense by shoring up MAGA base

Republicans’ greatest fear

While the mainstream media once again are trying to influence the 2024 elections by inflating false concerns over President Joe Biden and the Democrats, a telltale sign is coming from the Republicans that they are worried about their own chances next year. This Republican concern has appeared in recent attempts to shore up the Republican MAGA base, rather than expand the GOP’s appeal well beyond their narrow base in order to win the presidency and other big elections in 2024. Most notably over the past week:

–New Republican U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson caved to the MAGAs and reversed course by backing an evidence-free impeachment inquiry by House Republicans against President Biden. Just a few weeks ago, Johnson said there was “insufficient evidence” to proceed with this charade, and no such evidence has come to light since then. However, Johnson angered extremist Republicans recently when he worked with House Democrats to avoid a federal government shutdown. Supporting the phony impeachment inquiry now is a way to throw red meat at these right wingers. Likewise, in a TV appearance, disgraced former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said that House Republicans who do not support Biden’s impeachment will face primary challenges in their own party, again meaning that Republicans should be deathly afraid of their irrational MAGA base.

Vice President Kamala Harris sounds the Democratic Party 2024 election theme

Vice President Kamala Harris pushing the 2024 Democratic theme

By now, most people have processed the results of the November 7 off-year elections, and they agree that the Democratic Party did very well. This includes, for example, the largely red state of Kentucky, where Democratic Governor Andy Beshear won reelection in a strong performance. Moreover, in Virginia, Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin lost big time when Democrats not only held onto their state Senate majority, they also flipped the state House of Delegates to Democratic control.

Not coincidentally, abortion was on the minds of Virginia voters, as Gov. Youngkin had proposed to ban most abortions after 15 weeks. Democrats ran and won on protecting abortion rights in opposition to the Governor. Likewise, the abortion rights issue was even more directly on the ballot in Ohio, where voters approved a state constitutional amendment protecting access to abortion and other forms of reproductive healthcare.

These results follow previous special elections, such as in Kansas in August 2022, where voters rejected a proposed Republican amendment that said there was no right to abortion in the state. Thus, it’s apparent that, after the Republican-majority U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June of last year, thereby taking away the constitutional right to abortion and leaving the issue to the states, the Democratic Party pro-choice position keeps prevailing in special elections, and promises to be a strong issue for the Democrats in the 2024 elections.

At the same time, as we have noted, the Democrats — from President Joe Biden to members of Congress and others — have turned the Republicans’ anti-abortion positions and rulings into a broader theme of “freedom.” And now, Vice President Kamala Harris has joined this “freedom” caucus. As this C-SPAN video shows, on Wednesday morning after the November 7 elections, VP Harris stepped out of the White House, walked up to the microphones, and had this to say:

Last night, I think the American people made clear that they are prepared to stand for freedom, and for the individual freedoms and the promise of freedom in America …. I think that if you look at from the midterms to last night, from California to Kansas, Ohio to Virginia, the voters said, “look, the government should not be telling a woman what to do with her body.”

Democrats using the “freedom” theme is music to our ears, as we have been advocating this since 2013. The added benefit is that Democrats are taking “freedom” back from the Republicans, who have tried for so long to own the idea. It’s a great theme for Democrats to run on for 2024.

Photo by The Democratic Party, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/FjJ9mL

To tout President Biden’s accomplishments, make it bite-sized

President Biden boosts high-speed trains and infrastructure

As we are now less than one year from the 2024 elections, there have been some lists of President Joe Biden‘s many accomplishments floating around online, including from the White House itself. The lists are quite long and impressive, comprising legislation (American Rescue Plan, Inflation Reduction Act, Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act), executive orders (creating new national monuments, steps to curb gun violence, AI safety measures, and more. These accomplishments are important to share, because mainstream media outlets often refuse to acknowledge them. However, the comprehensive lists of what President Biden has achieved can be overwhelming, especially for anyone trying to recite these accomplishments in conversation, on video, or even in writing.

Therefore, a better method might be to pick one subject at a time, and focus on that. For example, earlier this year, the Biden team began enlisting what some call “an army” of mostly young social media influencers, and even gave them a special briefing room at the White House. These influencers use social media such at TikTok to create short pieces on topics in which they have chosen to specialize, such as financial policy, gun violence, marijuana decriminalization, electric vehicles (EVs), and more.

While these social media influencers are well-known, with large audiences and familiar platforms, there is no reason why the rest of us cannot similarly use the tools of communication at our disposal — blogs, podcasts, YouTube channels, old-fashioned letters to the editor of local or national newspapers, website comments, and even face-to-face conversations with friends and family at upcoming Thanksgiving and other holiday dinners — to share all this good Biden administration news. In doing so, sticking to one topic at a time might be most palatable to those listeners and readers with short attention spans due to holiday food comas or otherwise.

Besides being able to hold people’s attention spans, a further advantage of this bite-sized approach to sharing President Biden’s accomplishments is that it lets individual Democratic voters play up the issues that are most important to them.  For instance, one who thinks climate change is the most crucial issue we face can talk about the Inflation Reduction Act, with its tax credits for EVs and solar energy installations. Another person who is most passionate about protecting abortion rights in the wake of the Republican majority U.S. Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade can bring up President Biden’s executive orders to safeguard abortion and contraception, and so on. In this manner, all of the important issues likely would get aired, no one’s eyes would glaze over with exhaustion, and President Biden would get the full credit he deserves.

Photo by Maryland GovPics, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/GaEPVS

Why comments about Matthew Perry’s death give us hope

Matthew Perry

Since 54 year-old actor Matthew Perry died in his hot tub last Saturday, the medical examiner in charge has not yet released a specific cause of death. As usual, however, that has not stopped online commenters from coming up with their own theories, some of them qualifying as conspiracies. The most boneheaded such theory thus far, which can be seen on various social media platforms, is that Perry died because he previously received the COVID vaccination. One such example found on Reddit (which appears to have been reposted from Twitter/X), was phrased like this:

I wanna ignore it but I can’t, Matthew Perry was vaccinated. Is it a coincidence?

Note that the theory was posed in the form of “I’m just asking the question.” Jon Stewart once made fun of the frequent use of this technique by Neil Cavuto and others at Fox “News.” Such a qualifier lets folks raise any crazy, groundless theory they want, e.g., “Was Matthew Perry abducted by space aliens, then returned to his hot tub to die?”

The twist here, however, is that commenters who replied to this online theory about Matthew Perry and the COVID vaccination almost uniformly slammed the people who put it forth. Here are just some of those reply comments:

Ron DeSantis joins Democrats in questioning Trump’s cognitive abilities

Donald Trump speaking

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has been running a distant second to Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential nomination contest, and even dropping in the polls, for some time. Perhaps that is because DeSantis has chosen to spend his time going after the Walt Disney Company and LGBTQ people. Or perhaps DeSantis has not gained ground on Trump because his criticisms of Trump have been rather tepid. It is almost as if DeSantis was hoping that Democratic attacks on Donald Trump would be enough. The Republican polls, however, indicate that is not the case.

For years, Democrats have observed that Trump is in physical or cognitive decline. This includes his difficulties walking down a ramp, problems drinking water, sniffing, and slurring his words. (As to the latter two, some have speculated that Trump takes too much Adderall, and that he may even have a prosthesis in his palate to cover damage from years of snorting Adderall or cocaine.) In recent speeches, Trump has also appeared confused, even stating that he ran against Barack Obama in 2016 (hint: it was Hillary Clinton), and that President Joe Biden might start “World War Two” (spoiler alert: that war ended when Biden was not even three years old).

Now, finally, Ron DeSantis may be shifting his strategy to tell voters about some of these apparent difficulties for Trump. Specifically, at a New Hampshire campaign event on Tuesday, DeSantis said of Trump:

… [H]e is wedded to the teleprompter. He can’t get off that teleprompter, any time he does, he says things like ‘Don’t vote.’

DeSantis went on to say:

And so I think that it’s just shown this is a different Donald Trump in 2015 and 16. Lost the zip on his fastball, ….

It’s a pretty mild attack compared to everything that DeSantis could say about Trump, but at least he is opening this door a crack. Perhaps DeSantis will be emboldened to go further, especially if he does not otherwise gain ground on Trump in the polls. Note that Chris Christie, another 2024 Republican presidential candidate, also attacks Trump, although more on Trump’s policy failures and inaction rather than physical or cognitive problems.

When it comes to Republican ads for the 2024 elections, we know the GOP, in order to create a false impression, won’t be shy about using video of President Biden tripping on stairs or stuttering. By the same token, Democrats should make full use of Donald Trump’s increasing number of apparent physical and cognitive issues to bolster an impression that seems increasingly true.

Photo by Evan Guest, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/uHekNJ