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Florida’s low-information voters

Not “The Sunshine State” of knowledge

Three recent conversations that took place with Floridians offer a sampling of that state’s pool of low-information voters:

The first conversation, in a retail store, involved a customer and an employee. The employee had just said that he was about to pick up a Boar’s Head sandwich for lunch:

Customer: “Haven’t you been reading the news?”
Employee: “No, I don’t give a sh*t about the news.”
Customer: “You should. There’s a deadly Listeria outbreak involving their meats!”
Employee: “I don’t care. If it’s my time to go, it’s my time to go.”

 

The second conversation involved a salesman and a customer at another retail outlet, and went like this:

Salesman: “The price of food and everything else is so high. I’ve been cooking at home instead of buying prepared foods.”
Customer: “At least the price of gas has come down a lot lately.”
Salesman: “Oh I don’t care about gas prices.”

Here, what we have goes beyond low information and into Republican narratives that never let facts get in the way. The idea that someone (who admits he drives a lot) would care about the price of food but not the price of gas, as if his money to pay for these did not all have to come from the same pile, is preposterous.

 

The third conversation was similar to the second one. It took place in an office, between the same customer as in the second conversation, and the office technician:

Technician: “Oh, you know, the price of everything is so high right now.”
Customer: “Well, at least gas prices have come down.”
Technician: “That’s because we have an election coming.”

Here, the technician is advancing another right wing trope, that somehow the oil companies would lower gasoline prices before the election to help President Joe Biden and the campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris. As if (1) the oil companies somehow favor the Democrats, who are promoting renewable energy and electric vehicles, instead of the Republicans, who are in the pocket of the oil and fossil fuel industries; (b) the price of oil and gasoline is not the result of supply and demand; and (c) the oil companies and gas stations do not charge as much as possible to maximize their profits.

This, folks, is why the 2024 presidential election is close.

Photo by Jason Howie, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/FQUaYt

 

Donald Trump is running Bob Dole’s campaign from 1996

Bob Dole, seated in wheelchair

Besides their obvious policy differences, one of the most striking contrasts between the presidential campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Governor Tim Walz on one hand, and Donald Trump and J.D. Vance on the other hand, is the difference in tone. Specifically, Harris and Walz are running a campaign full of joy and positivity, to the point where Republicans are trying (desperately, and unsuccessfully) to make fun of Harris for — get this — smiling and laughing. Trump and Vance instead are going with false doom and gloom.

These difference were apparent in last Tuesday’s presidential debate between Harris and Trump. In her very first answer (regarding the economy), Harris set the tone for her approach, stating, “I believe in the ambition, the aspirations, the dreams of the American people.” Accordingly, Harris outlined her plans for what she called an “opportunity economy,” including tax cuts to young families with children and to small start-up businesses. Harris often says that, her whole career, she has worked “for the people.”

In contrast, Trump began by lying that “we’ve had a terrible economy,” and then launched into his theme of the night, fear-mongering about immigrants. According to Trump, “Our country is being lost. We’re a failing nation.” Likewise, Trump said:

[W]e have millions of people pouring into our country from prisons and jails, from mental institutions and insane asylums. And they’re coming in and they’re taking jobs that are occupied right now by African Americans and Hispanics and also unions. Unions are going to be affected very soon. And you see what’s happening.

And this time, bizarrely, Trump launched a new attack against immigrants:

In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs. The people that came in. They’re eating the cats. They’re eating — they’re eating the pets of the people that live there.

Not coincidentally, most reviews and polls from across the political spectrum indicated that Harris trounced Trump in the debate.

The Trump – Harris presidential debate expectations game

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump to appear together

Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are holding their first presidential debate tomorrow night on ABC. A number of Democrats are saying that Harris will “wipe the floor” with Trump. Likewise, The New York Times recently published an article entitled “Fear of a ‘mean, bully Trump’ showing up at Harris debate has his advisers on edge.” That is a mistake for a couple of reasons.

First, the proper way to play the debate expectations game is to play down your candidate’s abilities and chances, and play up those of your opponent. Similar to what many sales people will tell you, it’s better to under promise and over deliver than to do the opposite.

Second, while Trump has been increasingly rambling and incoherent at speeches and rallies, there is little wrong with his debate record. In 2016, Trump cleared a large Republican primary field, in large part by dominating the debates, and went on to beat Hillary Clinton in the Electoral College. In 2024, just over six weeks ago, Trump debated President Joe Biden, and the result was Biden leaving the presidential race. Trump’s tactics, which include interruptions, intimidation, lies, childish outbursts, and other breaches of tradition and decorum, arguably work well for him. Indeed, the framing of the above-cited New York Times article raises legitimate questions of whether the paper is trying to game the debate in favor of Trump in advance by lowering expectations for him.

On the flip side, Harris was knocked out of the 2020 Democratic Party primaries early on after several debates. Thus it’s fair to say that those debates did not make her the standout or catapult her into the lead. One could therefore argue that Trump has the debate advantage over Harris.

At best, predicting what will happen in a presidential debate is too speculative. As in war, we really don’t know ahead of time how it might turn out.

Photo by FolsomNatural, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/HBzHpl

Kamala Harris is giving Donald Trump woman problems

Vice President Kamala Harris, engaging as always

After running scared for days, Donald Trump reportedly has agreed to the September 10 presidential debate against Vice President Kamala Harris in which Trump had previously agreed to participate against President Joe Biden. Trump’s initial reluctance to debate Harris is the latest indication that Trump does not know how to run against her. A large part of Trump’s problem is that Harris is a woman, and indeed, a very powerful, tough and accomplished woman.

As most people know, Trump was confident that he would beat Biden, who was showing signs of age when trying to campaign in addition to his very hectic presidential responsibilities, which include working hard to get Israel and Hamas to agree to a cease-fire in Gaza. Biden’s popularity was also low, despite achieving more in one term (rescuing America from the depths of the COVID pandemic, saving the economy from the Trump Recession, etc.) than any president in recent memory.

The Democratic Party’s stunningly successful convention

DNC 2024 — packed and picturesque

By any measure, the Democratic Party’s four-day national convention (DNC) in Chicago, which concluded last night, successfully outdid last month’s Republican Party convention (RNC) in every way. For example, the DNC speakers, performers and attendees were full of enthusiasm and joy, while the RNC was a dark and dismal affair. Moreover, this DNC was all the more remarkable given that President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 election campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris only one month ago.

From a production standpoint, the DNC looked beautiful and sounded great. The stage set and background screens were bold and colorful, dominated by Democratic blue. The invited speakers, which included just about every Democratic Party luminary, were interspersed with musical performances from the likes of Stevie Wonder, Pink, Patti LaBelle, John Legend, Lil John, and a crowd-pumping deejay. According to some analysts, the DNC “made for great TV,” a highly desired description which rarely applies to political conventions. And the DNC television and online viewership ratings bore this out, smashing the rating for the RNC. To top things off, the Harris campaign collected an astounding $500 million in donations in its first month.

With Kamala Harris replacing Joe Biden, Trump is stuck

Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden

Donald Trump has had a bad month. Ever since July 21, when President Joe Biden announced that he would not seek re-election and that he was endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic Party presidential nomination, Trump has been flummoxed at every turn, and is losing support.

For most of this year, it was the other way around. President Biden received negative coverage from the “news” media, even after many successes. Biden was singled out as “old,” even though Trump is nearly the same age. Trump was leading in most polls, especially in the “battleground” or “swing” states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin — where most analysts think the election will be decided.

Then came the first Trump/Biden presidential debate on June 27. Biden, after criss-crossing the western hemisphere from Normandy to Hollywood, having been over-prepared by his staff, and with a cold (followed by a COVID diagnosis), had a rough night. Republicans and the press pounced, Democrats panicked, and the “Biden is old” meme sunk in. After several weeks of one prominent Democrat after another saying that Biden should drop out of the campaign, the President finally did.

Since then, however, the 2024 election has been upended. Harris has been crushing Trump in fundraising, voter enthusiasm,  crowds, and endorsements by big unions and others. Harris’s choice of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate has also added tremendous energy to the Democratic ticket. Walz has proven to be immensely popular and is one of the most dynamic running mates in recent memory. Walz’s resume as farmer, teacher (and union member), winning football coach, Army National Guard veteran, Congressman and Governor, as well as his plain-spoken, decent manner, are motivating the Democratic base and attracting Midwestern voters and others who might not usually be part of the base.

With Harris and Walz, the era of Democrats playing “we go high” defense is over

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz

At the 2016 Democratic National Convention, First Lady Michelle Obama said about Republicans, “when they go low, we go high.” That was after more than seven years of Republicans going ever lower and lower, both in their rhetoric and their actions. Some of these many Republican low points include falsely and repeatedly questioning President Barack Obama‘s citizenship (i.e. “birtherism”), and denying President Obama a hearing for his U.S. Supreme Court nominee, Merrick Garland.

Eight years later, it appears Democrats finally have had enough of Republicans’ low behavior. The fantastically enthusiastic response of Democratic voters to the 2024 presidential ticket of Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz demonstrate that the party’s base wants leaders who not only are smart and competent, but who are also willing to go on offense against Donald Trump, his running mate J.D. Vance, and the Republican Party.

First of all, in supporting Vice President Harris, Democrats are getting someone with a background as a tough prosecutor. Thus, the theme of The Prosecutor vs. The Convicted Felon (meaning of course Donald Trump, already convicted of 34 felonies and facing more prosecutions) is a natural one that will surely be used over and over.

Moreover, by choosing Tim Walz as her running mate, Vice President Harris doubled down on taking the fight to the Republicans. Indeed, that became obvious even before Harris announced Walz as her running mate, as Walz coined the term “weird” to describe Trump and Vance back on July 23. This “weird” meme has really taken off, and in his first appearance with Harris, in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, Walz went one better, saying that Trump and Vance were both “creepy, and yes, just weird as hell.” In his speech, Walz even alluded to Vance’s problems with couches (those unfamiliar with the subject can easily look it up). This shows that Walz is savvy when it comes to new media, such as Tik Tok, that he says his Gen Z kids use.

Kamala Harris presidential campaign goes all in on the “Freedom” theme

Vice President Kamala Harris, taking freedom back

As far back as 2013, we stressed the importance of Democrats framing their arguments in terms of promoting “freedom.” Specifically, we wanted to take that term back from the Republicans, because freedom is a deeply held American value, and we know that Democrats, not Republicans, are the ones who truly believe in it. The great news is that, in recent years, leading Democrats, including President Joe Biden, have been promoting the idea of “freedom.” While this trend might not have been too noticeable other than to folks who were specifically looking at Democratic messaging, Vice President and presumptive 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has amped up the “freedom” theme to the point where it is now on the radar of many voters and journalists. We couldn’t be more pleased with these developments.

Just in the past week, since Harris began her 2024 presidential campaign after being endorsed by President Biden, her first speech in Wisconsin strongly laid out the “freedom” theme. Initially, Harris stated that “we believe in a future … where every worker has the freedom to join a union.” Harris went on:

Ours is a fight for the future. And it is a fight for freedom. Generations of Americans before us led the fight for freedom. And now, Wisconsin, the baton is in our hands. We who believe in the sacred freedom to vote will make sure every American has the ability to cast their ballot and have it counted. We who believe that every person in our nation should have the freedom to live safe from the terror of gun violence will finally pass red flag laws, universal background checks and an Assault Weapons Ban. And we who believe in reproductive freedom will stop Donald Trump‘s extreme abortion bans because we trust women to make decisions about their own bodies, and not have their government tell them what to do. And when Congress passes a law to restore reproductive freedoms, as President of the United States, I will sign it into law. So Wisconsin, ultimately in this election, we each face a question: what kind of country do we want to live in? Do we want to live in a country of freedom, compassion and rule of law, or a country of chaos, fear and hate? …. Do we believe in freedom? …. And are we ready to fight for it?

30 minutes of grief, then a pivot from Biden to Harris

The new 2024 election optics

We are big supporters of President Joe Biden. There have been many posts here outlining his accomplishments and tremendous successes, including:

–strengthening America’s economy and creating a record number of jobs;

–leadership and respect around the world, as well as expanding NATO;

–protecting the rights of women and minorities;

–successfully placing hundreds of federal judges on the bench, including U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson;

–forgiving over one hundred billions of dollars in student loans (despite Republican efforts to stop it); and more.

Likewise, we have laid out the reasons why President Biden deserved Democratic support for his presidential re-election efforts, such as the fact that he is the incumbent president who decided to seek another term, and that he won the 2024 primaries (with over 14 million Democratic votes) very handily.

But reality has taken a different turn. Whether events of the past few weeks are fair or not, President Biden has announced that he will no longer seek the nomination for president in 2024. Instead, Biden has fully endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for the job.

Normally, we would want to spend days grieving over and processing what happened. However, with the 2024 elections just 105 days away, and the Democratic National Convention (where the presidential and vice presidential candidates are formally nominated) only 27 days from now, there is no time for that. Instead, we grieved for about half an hour, and then pivoted to Vice President Harris.

Messaging Maxim #10: Don’t concede too much

Democrats: more Batman, less Bruce Wayne

There are two things that Democrats keep doing lately which are not helpful to President Joe Biden or the Democratic Party’s chances in the 2024 elections. Both of them have to do with conceding too much to Republicans. First, we see a lot of variations of “Biden is old, but Trump is ______” (crazy, a Nazi, a felon, etc.) from Democrats. While the descriptions of Trump are true, the part that often gets left out is that Donald Trump is also old. He’s nearly the same age as Biden. Moreover, Trump has displayed more signs of physical and cognitive impairment than Biden, from struggling with ramps and water bottles, to forgetting family members’ and opponents’ names, and others. Therefore, the “Biden is old but Trump …” statements are too weak.

Second, we see Democrats repeating mainstream “news” media memes that, we should all know by now, skew Republican. An example of this has occurred this week. The stock markets are hitting new records, in large part because inflation has been tamed on President Biden’s watch, and the business and banking communities are expecting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates sooner than later as a result. However, a number of financial news articles, such as this one from Reuters on Tuesday have added a third reason:

increasing expectations of a second Trump presidency in the wake of a failed assassination attempt raised hopes of a looser regulatory environment.

That is a crazy premise for a news report. While plenty of folks across the political spectrum wish Trump a speedy recovery, why would a failed assassination attempt “increas[e] expectations of a second Trump presidency”? On the contrary, according to Newsweek, “Donald Trump Does Not Get Post-Shooting Poll Boost.” Indeed, after a two-week media frenzy, President Biden is going into November’s election in an even stronger position, weathering the storm against him and now more likely to win than Trump, according to fivethirtyeight.com. Biden, not Trump, is therefore the Comeback Kid at the moment, and Democrats should never concede that Trump has a better chance to win, especially for the sole reason of being shot at.