Monthly Archives: September 2024

Donald Trump is running Bob Dole’s campaign from 1996

Bob Dole, seated in wheelchair

Besides their obvious policy differences, one of the most striking contrasts between the presidential campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Governor Tim Walz on one hand, and Donald Trump and J.D. Vance on the other hand, is the difference in tone. Specifically, Harris and Walz are running a campaign full of joy and positivity, to the point where Republicans are trying (desperately, and unsuccessfully) to make fun of Harris for — get this — smiling and laughing. Trump and Vance instead are going with false doom and gloom.

These difference were apparent in last Tuesday’s presidential debate between Harris and Trump. In her very first answer (regarding the economy), Harris set the tone for her approach, stating, “I believe in the ambition, the aspirations, the dreams of the American people.” Accordingly, Harris outlined her plans for what she called an “opportunity economy,” including tax cuts to young families with children and to small start-up businesses. Harris often says that, her whole career, she has worked “for the people.”

In contrast, Trump began by lying that “we’ve had a terrible economy,” and then launched into his theme of the night, fear-mongering about immigrants. According to Trump, “Our country is being lost. We’re a failing nation.” Likewise, Trump said:

[W]e have millions of people pouring into our country from prisons and jails, from mental institutions and insane asylums. And they’re coming in and they’re taking jobs that are occupied right now by African Americans and Hispanics and also unions. Unions are going to be affected very soon. And you see what’s happening.

And this time, bizarrely, Trump launched a new attack against immigrants:

In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs. The people that came in. They’re eating the cats. They’re eating — they’re eating the pets of the people that live there.

Not coincidentally, most reviews and polls from across the political spectrum indicated that Harris trounced Trump in the debate.

The Trump – Harris presidential debate expectations game

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump to appear together

Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are holding their first presidential debate tomorrow night on ABC. A number of Democrats are saying that Harris will “wipe the floor” with Trump. Likewise, The New York Times recently published an article entitled “Fear of a ‘mean, bully Trump’ showing up at Harris debate has his advisers on edge.” That is a mistake for a couple of reasons.

First, the proper way to play the debate expectations game is to play down your candidate’s abilities and chances, and play up those of your opponent. Similar to what many sales people will tell you, it’s better to under promise and over deliver than to do the opposite.

Second, while Trump has been increasingly rambling and incoherent at speeches and rallies, there is little wrong with his debate record. In 2016, Trump cleared a large Republican primary field, in large part by dominating the debates, and went on to beat Hillary Clinton in the Electoral College. In 2024, just over six weeks ago, Trump debated President Joe Biden, and the result was Biden leaving the presidential race. Trump’s tactics, which include interruptions, intimidation, lies, childish outbursts, and other breaches of tradition and decorum, arguably work well for him. Indeed, the framing of the above-cited New York Times article raises legitimate questions of whether the paper is trying to game the debate in favor of Trump in advance by lowering expectations for him.

On the flip side, Harris was knocked out of the 2020 Democratic Party primaries early on after several debates. Thus it’s fair to say that those debates did not make her the standout or catapult her into the lead. One could therefore argue that Trump has the debate advantage over Harris.

At best, predicting what will happen in a presidential debate is too speculative. As in war, we really don’t know ahead of time how it might turn out.

Photo by FolsomNatural, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/HBzHpl