Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden
Donald Trump has had a bad month. Ever since July 21, when President Joe Biden announced that he would not seek re-election and that he was endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic Party presidential nomination, Trump has been flummoxed at every turn, and is losing support.
For most of this year, it was the other way around. President Biden received negative coverage from the “news” media, even after many successes. Biden was singled out as “old,” even though Trump is nearly the same age. Trump was leading in most polls, especially in the “battleground” or “swing” states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin — where most analysts think the election will be decided.
Then came the first Trump/Biden presidential debate on June 27. Biden, after criss-crossing the western hemisphere from Normandy to Hollywood, having been over-prepared by his staff, and with a cold (followed by a COVID diagnosis), had a rough night. Republicans and the press pounced, Democrats panicked, and the “Biden is old” meme sunk in. After several weeks of one prominent Democrat after another saying that Biden should drop out of the campaign, the President finally did.
Since then, however, the 2024 election has been upended. Harris has been crushing Trump in fundraising, voter enthusiasm, crowds, and endorsements by big unions and others. Harris’s choice of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate has also added tremendous energy to the Democratic ticket. Walz has proven to be immensely popular and is one of the most dynamic running mates in recent memory. Walz’s resume as farmer, teacher (and union member), winning football coach, Army National Guard veteran, Congressman and Governor, as well as his plain-spoken, decent manner, are motivating the Democratic base and attracting Midwestern voters and others who might not usually be part of the base.
Trump seems to have feet of clay in response. He is now noticeably the “old candidate” in the race, and has low energy when campaigning. He is taking few campaign trips, and his speeches range from monotone doom and gloom to unhinged, rambling diatribes about sharks, batteries, and Hannibal Lecter. Trump’s heart doesn’t seem to be in the race, which may be the case if his primary motivation is to stay out of prison. Plenty of people are questioning Trump’s physical and cognitive state (although again, the “news” media are not giving Trump the same scrutiny they gave to Biden.) According to Raw Story, Harris has Trump in a “chokehold.”
Trump’s selection of J.D. Vance as his running mate did not help. Vance has been a dud, even a drag on the campaign. He seems oddly fixated on telling women what they should do, and he even stalked VP Harris on an airport tarmac.
In response, Democrats are going on offense. Governor Walz used the term “weird” to describe Trump and Vance, and it has become very popular, as well as its cousin, “creepy.” Similarly, the meme about Vance and couches (readers unfamiliar with this can easily look it up) went viral and shows no signs of waning, precisely because Vance is so creepy. Newsweek reported this week that “Nearly a Third of Voters Say JD Vance Hurts Trump’s Chances.” Accordingly, there has been talk about replacing Vance on the Republican ticket, but as everyone knows, Donald Trump never wants to admit he made a mistake.
All of these changes have translated into a significant shift in the polls. According to USA Today (citing a Cook Political Report survey), Harris now leads Trump in five of the seven battleground states, and is tied with Trump in Georgia. In Nevada, where Trump still holds a lead over Harris, such lead is narrower than Trump’s former lead over Biden. Even Republican states like Florida are now competitive.
Trump also had a disastrous interview with Elon Musk that was filled with technical glitches. Furthermore, Trump had a strange lisp, seemingly the result of either cognitive impairment, drugs, or loose dentures, all feeding into the “old” narrative.
Meanwhile, Trump has been convicted of 34 crimes, was found liable for sexual abuse and defamation of E. Jean Carroll, and faces additional charges. Trump could be sentenced to prison next month in the Stormy Daniels criminal case. Donald Trump should be in jail, not on the campaign trail.
Finally, it is often said that the principal issue in a presidential election is the economy. If so, Trump and the Republicans are in trouble, because the U.S. economy is now the envy of the world. Inflation, which heretofore was the biggest problem and the one most cited in Republican attacks, has fallen to under three percent. At the same time, economic growth and employment levels are quite healthy. President Biden has created 16 million jobs. Thus, we’re experiencing the near-mythical “soft landing” of lower inflation without a recession. As a result, there is widespread opinion that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates at its September meeting. In reaction, the stock markets are setting record after record. While President Biden has never gotten the positive press coverage he deserves for managing this economy so successfully, at least Yahoo Finance agreed this week that “Cooling inflation raises new challenges for Trump’s economic attacks.”
As a result of everything listed above, even Republican communications strategist Frank Luntz said “I haven’t seen anything like this happen in 30 days in my lifetime.” Luntz added that Harris has the “intensity advantage,” and that, if Republicans don’t change things around, they risk losing the U.S. Senate and House as well as the presidency.
However, the 2024 elections are not over. Many Democrats remember 2016, with Hillary Clinton ahead of Trump in the polls, but ultimately losing in the Electoral College after having the scales tipped against her by everyone from Russia to FBI Director James Comey to supporters of Bernie Sanders and of course, the Republican-leaning mainstream “news” media. This time around, Democratic voters seem more vigilant and ready for the hard weeks of getting out the vote that lie ahead.
Photo by Maryland GovPics, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/st8auo
