Monthly Archives: June 2024

Lessons from the Biden – Trump presidential debate

President Joe Biden on Memorial Day 2024

Last night, President Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first presidential debate of 2024. We had predicted that the debate, hosted by CNN at its Atlanta studios with no live audience, would be “a bust.” It was, but in a slightly different way than we had thought. Many viewers and analysts seem to agree that Trump told tons of lies but was forceful and dynamic, and Biden told the truth but gave a very weak performance. We then learned afterward that Biden had a cold, which gave him a hoarse voice and other ill effects that hindered his performance.

The election is happening in just over four months, and a second, and probably final, debate between Biden and Trump is scheduled for September 10 on ABC. Presumably, Trump feels he did just fine last night and doesn’t have to do anything different next time. Thus, the question for Biden and the Democrats is, what lessons can be learned, and what is the best course going forward to maximize the chances of winning the election? Several things come to mind:

The Biden – Trump presidential debate will be a bust

Donald Trump may be unhappy with the debate rules

Are you tired of the media hype that surrounds events like the Super Bowl and the Oscars nowadays? Do you think they have become overblown and almost unwatchable? Don’t worry, you can add presidential debates to the list as well. As we have noted, the presidential debates have become inane and, due to their format, even cringeworthy. From inadequate response times to interruptions to flag pins, the debates are designed to provide more heat than light.

This year, the first presidential debate between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump takes place just two days from now, on Thursday, June 27. The debate is being hosted and aired by CNN at its Atlanta studios, and is receiving plenty of advance hype. Furthermore, two rule changes make this debate different from most presidential debates: First, there will be no live audience. Second, the candidate’s microphones will be muted unless the candidate has been prompted by the moderators to answer a question.

We think these changes will make Thursday’s Biden/Trump debate not only inane as usual, but extra boring. The audience often plays a part, cheering for their candidate, even when asked by the moderators not to do so. And the microphone muting will likely eliminate Trump’s childish outbursts when someone else is speaking, as Trump did so often to his Republican primary rivals, his Democratic opponents, and even the moderators in years past. Add to that the scheduling of this debate, during early summer when voters are probably thinking more about barbecues and camping trips than presidential politics, and we have the makings for a snooze fest.

Ultimately, this debate is likely to be a wash. It’s doubtful that either candidate will stumble so badly as to lose many votes, or give such brilliant, hard-hitting substantive responses as to win them. Rather, as often happens, when the debate ends, each candidate’s campaign officials and fans will quickly and loudly proclaim that their guy won. And then they’ll ask for donations.

Photo by Ron Cogswell, used under Creative Commons. https://is.gd/qGdeGt

Biden hammers Trump with new ad campaign

President Joe Biden, statesman

President Joe Biden‘s reelection campaign announced a new $50 million advertising campaign this week, aimed at drawing what is described as “contrasts” between Biden and his opponent Donald Trump in advance of their first debate scheduled for June 27. Based on the first ad released as part of this ad campaign (view the ad here), “contrasts” is a nice way to put it. The ad, titled “Character Matters,” begins by stating that Trump has “been convicted of 34 felonies, found liable for sexual assault, and he committed financial fraud.” The contrast part comes in next:

Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s been working, lowering healthcare costs, and making big corporations pay their fair share. This election is between a convicted criminal who’s only out for himself, and a president who’s fighting for your family.”

There are several reasons why this new Biden ad is so good. First, it forcefully goes on offense, something for which Democratic voters have been clamoring for decades, and for which we have been calling since the beginning of Messaging Matters. Second, Biden’s ad is accurate, as opposed to some deceptively edited or “deepfake” ad or video of the type that Republicans are now creating and distributing. Such accuracy is important both to maintain Democratic standards, and because, if the ad was inaccurate, the mainstream media would spend their time attacking it. Third, the ad contrasts Trump’s criminal convictions with Biden’s competent, effective work for Americans, adding the zinger that Trump is “only out for himself.” In short, the Biden campaign ad does a lot, in a simple way, in 30 seconds.

Moreover, this was just the first ad of the new Biden campaign effort. Suffice it to say, we cannot wait for the next one.

Photo by Number 10, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/AbBULo

Record-setting rain and heat in Florida, but it’s illegal to say “climate change”

Flooded Sarasota, FL roads after Hurricane Ian, 2022

South Florida is still undergoing a days-long, torrential rain storm that has dumped up to 20 inches of water in some areas. In the city of Sarasota on Tuesday evening, eight inches of rain fell in just three hours, something that NBC News stated only happens “every 500 to 1,000 years.”

This record-setting south Florida rain in the first half of June follows what NBC News also said was the warmest May on record in the area. Moreover, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts “above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year,” in part due to “near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean.” Something is going on, and we know what it’s called: climate change. Incredibly, however, instead of taking steps to fight climate change (such as promoting solar and wind power and electric vehicles), Florida’s Republican state government officials, headed by Governor Ron DeSantis, are hiding their heads in the increasingly wet and eroding sand. Indeed, just last month, during the aforementioned record heat, DeSantis signed a Republican bill “that erases most references to ‘climate change’ from state law.” Meanwhile, insurance companies, which do not have the luxury of denying climate change, are getting out of the home insurance business in Florida, and the ones who stay are charging the highest rates in the nation.

President Biden takes on Russia, dictators and Republicans at Normandy

The ultimate cost of freedom at Normandy

Marking the 80th anniversary of the allied “D-Day” invasion, President Joe Biden joined the leaders of America’s World War II allies (France, Britain, Canada and others) in Normandy, France yesterday, to deliver a powerful message to the world’s dictators and “bullies” (see video here). Describing World War II as being about “democracy” versus “dictators,” and likewise “the battle between freedom and tyranny,” Biden then said that, after defeating tyranny in World War II, “we established NATO, the greatest military alliance in the history of the world.” Biden then took on Russia‘s invasion and war against Ukraine, comparing it directly to World War II:

The struggle between dictatorship and freedom is unending. Here in Europe, we see one stark example. Ukraine has been invaded by a tyrant bent on domination. Ukrainians are fighting with extraordinary courage, suffering great losses, but never backing down…. The United States and NATO, and a coalition of more than 50 countries, standing strong with Ukraine. We will not walk away. Because if we do, Ukraine will be subjugated, and it will not end there. Ukraine’s neighbors will be threatened. All of Europe will be threatened. And make no mistake: the autocrats of the world are watching closely to see what happens in Ukraine, to see if we let this illegal aggression go unchecked. We cannot let that happen. To surrender to bullies, to bow down to dictators, is simply unthinkable.