The media’s dream for the Republican primaries
Last Monday night, as expected Donald Trump won the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucus. Trump’s win, with 51 percent of the vote, ahead of Ron DeSantis (21.2 percent) and Nimarata Nikki Haley (19.1 percent), was the largest margin of victory in Iowa Republican presidential caucus history. Indeed, the Associated Press called the contest for Trump just 30 minutes after the polls had closed, and other news outlets quickly followed suit.
At the same time, however, some Democrats, such as Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, said that the Iowa results showed “the weakness of Donald Trump.” According to Pritzker, “Almost half of the base of the Republican Party showing up for this caucus tonight voted against Donald Trump.” Pritzker added that the Iowa results were therefore a good sign for President Joe Biden, who is running for re-election.
So, were the Iowa caucus results great for Donald Trump, or bad for Donald Trump? In the age of political spin, the answer probably lies with whatever interest one seeks to promote. Backers of Trump, including most of the Republican MAGA base (who can be more accurately described as Trump cultists) likely will say Trump’s historic margin of victory in the Iowa caucus shows his continued strength in the Republican Party. Democrats, as Gov. Pritzker did, might naturally want to say that Trump had a bad night, in order to make Trump appear vulnerable.
What will the mainstream media likely say? Well, they love to create a horse race even where one does not exist. Witness their building up of one Republican candidate after another over the past year as possible rivals to Trump, from Ron DeSantis to Vivek Ramaswamy to, most recently, Nikki Haley. The media will likely now focus on the next Republican primary on the schedule, New Hampshire, where Haley is 13 points behind Trump, has been rising in the polls there, and could even win, to say that the Republican nomination horse race is still on.
What is our conclusion? It’s that Donald Trump is by far the GOP favorite, has been crushing his opponents in almost all of the polls, and does not face any real competition for the Republican presidential nomination, other than some scenario where he must withdraw due to legal or medical reasons. The Iowa caucus results only reinforce Trump’s standing. Moreover, when one factors in that Iowa was the first Republican contest, with the maximum number of candidates to split the total vote, Trump’s victory with over 50 percent looks even better. Indeed, after coming in fourth in Iowa with 7.7 percent, Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out of the presidential race, and endorsed Donald Trump. It’s fair to say that Trump will get a good share of the voter support from each Republican who quits the race in the coming weeks and months, meaning Trump could score well above 51 percent and rack up nearly all the delegates in some of the future GOP primaries.
Even if Haley wins New Hampshire, with its small, non-diverse population, that won’t stop Trump’s overall momentum. Look to Super Tuesday, March 5, with approximately 16 states holding their Republican contests, as the day Trump all but locks up the Republican presidential nomination by winning the vast majority of the 1215 delegates needed. While the mainstream media will try to make it a horse race until or even beyond then, we think it’s already over in the GOP.
Photo by Paul Joseph, used under Creative Commons license. https://shorturl.at/eyMPZ
