Is it Taps for the GOP?
As of now, the Republican Party can be fairly described as having failed miserably in the 2022 midterm elections. Considering that the party in power almost always loses many seats in Congress in the first midterms two years into a new president’s term, and given the headwinds of COVID, Russia‘s war against Ukraine, and the resulting high inflation in the U.S. and around the world, the Democrats wildly exceeded expectations of a sweeping Republican “Red Wave” this time. Specifically, the Democratic Party has retained control of the U.S. Senate with at least 50 votes (Vice President Kamala Harris can provide the 51st vote for the Democrats in case of a 50-50 tie), and it may even gain a Senate seat in the upcoming Georgia runoff election on December 6.
Additionally, Democrats have increased their number of state Governorships held, gained seats and majorities in state legislatures, defeated the Republican candidates for Secretary of State who deny the results of the 2020 presidential election (and who would have been in a position in charge of elections in their state to meddle in the 2024 elections), and, where abortion rights were on the ballot, voted to protect such rights. One only need to look at the current Republican Party meltdown, including piling on Donald Trump, to judge the political consequences of the midterms.
Nevertheless, the results of the midterm elections in the U.S. House of Representatives are still unknown. According to the Associated Press, Republicans have won 217 seats, Democrats have won 209, and the outcomes for the remaining 9 seats are still being tabulated. The magic number to gain majority control in the 435-member House is 218. Thus, a number of pundits and news media organizations are projecting that Republicans will win the narrowest of majorities, by approximately one to five seats. If that occurs, Republicans may wish it never happened. Here’s why:
First, Republicans may not be able to hold such a tiny minority together for a majority vote on anything, such as appropriations or other legislation. It’s doubtful that the GOP could count on any Democrats for the things they will likely propose. Moreover, the number of House members in each party often changes every few months, due to deaths, retirements, or, in the case of members like Matt Gaetz, possible criminal indictment and conviction. Thus, the House majority itself could change hands again in the coming year.
Second, even if a Republican-run House passes a bill, the Democratic-controlled Senate will likely never take it up. Republican House members essentially won’t be able to get anything done even if they want to.
Third, Republicans have shown no interest in governing, including solving the challenges that all Americans face. They voted no on inflation reduction, funding the government, and preventing stolen elections, for starters.
Fourth, only the Senate majority is required to confirm a president’s nominations for federal judges and other federal posts. Thus, President Joe Biden and the Democratic majority Senate can continue their fast pace of placing federal judges on the bench, including additional U.S. Supreme Court justices if openings occur due to death or retirement in the next two years.
Fifth, Republicans are infamous for overreaching. If they want to go ahead with some of the extreme things they talk about, such as wasting the House’s time and resources with blatantly partisan hearings over Hunter Biden, impeaching President Biden with no basis, defaulting on the U.S. debt, cutting off aid to Ukraine in the face of its brutal assault by Russia, or a futile vote to ban all abortions nationwide, the blowback against Republicans in the 2024 elections could be very significant.
In short, Republicans often do better as a minority party, standing on the sidelines, and throwing rocks. In the U.S. House, they may wish they had stayed there.
Photo by U.S. Marshals Office of Public Affairs, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/rHSgfR
