How the media would like to portray the election
If the 2020 presidential election were held today, based on current polls, Joe Biden would beat Donald Trump in a landslide. In particular, Biden is ahead of Trump in crucial “battleground” states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida, and is even with (and in some polls ahead of) Trump in states like Arizona, Georgia and the big prize, Texas, all of which Trump won in 2016.
But our mainstream media will not let Joe Biden run away with the election if they can help it. The media want a “horse race,” and you can bet that, with barely over 90 days to go until the election, you will soon be hearing about how “the race is tightening.” Here are some ways that can happen:
1. The Incumbent Advantage
First term incumbent presidents who run for reelection rarely lose. This includes the three previous presidents (Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Bill Clinton), as well as many others. One reason is that the head of the Executive Branch controls a vast machinery, including the specific dispersal of lots of money (federal disaster aid comes to mind at this time). Likewise, the news media have a Cult of the Presidency, following and broadcasting his every move and word.
2. The Presidential Debates
Nowadays, political candidate debates are largely a farce. The questions and answers are more like press conference speeches, the candidates frequently get cut off, and the moderators often fail to control the proceedings. Nevertheless, look for the media to hype the debates for television ratings, then to place low expectations on Donald “Cognitive Test” Trump, while simultaneously claiming that any Joe Biden performance that falls short of Socrates, Clarence Darrow and Winston Churchill means that Biden is suddenly “faltering” and “in trouble.”
3. The Stock Market
Trump has already lost the ability to run on a good economy, since his inaction on the Coronavirus has plunged the U.S. economy into the worst decline on record. The number of bankruptcies of U.S. companies is “scary” and growing, including longstanding brands such as Lord and Taylor, Brooks Brothers and Hertz car rental. Meanwhile, unemployment is a staggering 11.1 percent (and was nearly 15 percent in April), over 30 million jobs have been lost, and special COVID unemployment benefits expired last week. Trump and the Republicans also made a fatal mistake in trying to choose “reopening the economy” over public health in dealing with COVID, when it is obviously impossible to have the former without the latter. However, the stock market is doing very well, partly because the Federal Reserve has driven interest rates close to zero, making bonds extremely unattractive to investors, and partly because the Fed has also pumped trillions of dollars into companies via low-interest loans and purchasing corporate debt, all of which pumps up stock prices. Donald Trump thus points to, and will continue to point to, the success of the stock market as a distraction from the failure of the economy during his term. Many media outlets, who love to chase such shiny object distractions, may play along.
4. The October Surprise
In 2016, FBI Director James Comey handed Donald Trump a gift in the form of a letter to Congress stating that, once again, the FBI was investigating Hillary Clinton‘s email server. This was after Comey “did not reveal that the FBI had also been investigating possible collusion between Trump associates and Russia,” a true double standard. This year, with Trump behind Biden in the polls, many people are expecting another “October surprise” by Trump in order to sway the election his way at the end. One thing that is mentioned often is an announcement that some breakthrough has been achieved regarding development of a COVID vaccine. If an announcement like that occurs, it should be viewed skeptically, given that the trials take time to complete, the vaccine would have to be produced in massive quantities, it would have to be administered in massive quantities, and Trump and the Republicans have already called the Coronavirus a “hoax” and downplayed it at every opportunity, thus many Republican voters (plus “anti-vaxxers” generally) would not even want to be vaccinated.
5. The False Equivalence
The mainstream media are pros at creating false equivalences (known as “bothsiderism”) between Democrats and Republicans. This can be seen right now, for example, in the foot-dragging by Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to take up Coronavirus relief legislation. Media outlets are calling this an impasse by “Congress,” as if both sides are equally to blame, when in reality it’s a:
textbook example of awful “Congress” coverage, instead of media telling truth abt today’s GOP; https://t.co/r90pbZ7yOy
— Eric Boehlert (@EricBoehlert) August 4, 2020
Perhaps as a way to avoid charges of favoritism, or perhaps as a way to maximize profits, the media can be relied on to keep this election close by blaming “both sides” for various problems and political inaction, even when it’s not the case.
Any one or a combination of the above-listed factors could come into play during these final months before the 2020 elections. If you like to bet on horse races, then a bet on artificial tightening in the race between Trump and Biden (and by extension, in down-ballot races between Republicans and Democrats) is a sure winner.
Photo by Jean, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/LdZtuk
