A tale of two Memorial Days

President Joe Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris and Defense Secy. Lloyd Austin at Arlington National Cemetery, 5/27/24

When then-U.S. Senator John Edwards campaigned for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2003 and 2004, one of his main themes was that “there are two Americas,” meaning those who are well-off economically (or who don’t face discrimination based on race, religion, gender, etc.), and the rest of us. Edwards was correct, but there is also another major divide in America: the divide between the political right and left. That right-left political divide often shows up, for example, in the “news” sources that people choose, from the powerful Republican media machine (Fox “News,” Newsmax, OAN, the New York Post, the Wall Street Journal, etc.) on the right to a smattering of blogs, which cannot compete with such Republican machine, on the left. And nowhere was this right-left political divide more on display last weekend than in the Memorial Day messages from President Joe Biden and his upcoming election opponent, Donald Trump.

President Biden, the father of a son who served in the military and who died prematurely (though he was not killed in combat), displayed his well-known patriotism, compassion and decency in his Memorial Day speech, given at Arlington National Cemetery. Some of Biden’s quotes included:

Hit job headline against President Biden

President Biden touts “Bidenomics” in Maryland

There is a strange disconnect happening in the country, between actual economic realities and people’s perception of the economy. As to the former, many of the numbers today and during President Joe Biden‘s administration are stunningly good, including solid economic growth, record job creation and low unemployment, wage growth, rebuilding our infrastructure, $160 billion in student loan forgiveness so far, and a stock market that just hit a record 40,000, causing millions of Americans’ retirement accounts to grow. Even as to persistent inflation, which began after the U.S. economy shut down during the 2020 Trump Recession, it has been heading in the right direction (steadily down), in part thanks to efforts by President Biden and the Democrats. Those efforts include passing the Inflation Reduction Act, which, among other things, capped insulin for Medicare recipients at $35 per month and extended tax credits for electric vehicles and residential and commercial solar energy installations. Moreover, record oil production under President Biden helps keep gasoline prices down.

At the same time, however, we keep hearing stories that, as Voice of America reported last January:

Despite those robust numbers, most Americans, 68%, say the economy is worsening, according to a December 2023 Gallup poll, which showed that four in five U.S. adults rate the country’s current economic conditions as “poor” (45%) or “fair” (33%). Only 19% of people polled said the economy is “good,” in keeping with the positive economic markers.

Again, somewhat oddly, the same VOA article reported:

However, Justin Wolfers, a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan, questions the accuracy of polls and says people’s actions suggest they believe the economy is doing well.

“How would we figure out if the American consumer were in fact optimistic? I think the first thing you do is you look at consumption spending, because if you expect the economy to be terrible, you’d squirrel away money for this coming recession,” Wolfers said. “But instead, people have been spending money as if they believe, not only is the economy good, it’s going to continue to be good.”

Given these mixed signals at best on the economy, the Biden administration and leading Democrats likely need to do a better job communicating good news. However, it’s tough for President Biden and the Democrats to get proper credit for the success of “Bidenomics” when we have mainstream media headlines like this one from  Yahoo! Finance last Wednesday:

Grocery prices jumped 1.2% last month as food inflation returns to pre-pandemic levels.”

What a confusing and misleading headline. First, as the video and text accompanying the article indicate, grocery prices didn’t “jump” last month, they “dropped 0.2%” from the previous month (emphasis added). Second, if the relevant measure is year to year, again the video included in the article indicates that grocery prices increased 1.1 percent, not 1.2 percent. Third, as is indicated later in the text, this small increase reflects very low inflation. Grocery prices are moderating, and are now increasing well below the overall inflation rate. Indeed, the “pre-pandemic levels” part of the Yahoo! Finance headline means before the last round of inflation hit, i.e., when inflation was in the two percent range.

No one likes inflation, but what a poor job of journalism in the headline and lede of this particular story. Sadly, that is the kind of sloppy or biased reporting that occurs too much in our media. Likewise, when media outlets report good economic news, and then, often in the same sentence, state that President Biden isn’t receiving proper credit for the good economy, the outlets are perpetuating the problem.

How do we combat this kind of reporting? At minimum, we have to call it out and correct it, far and wide.

Photo by Maryland GovPics, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/so9TcZ

In university Gaza protests, 2024 is not 1968

President Biden, fighting for peace

Those old enough to remember the tumultuous year 1968, or who have studied the events of that year, know that it was an earthquake in American politics, changing the course of the nation and the world. Overhanging everything was dissatisfaction with the U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War, which had been growing for several years. 1968 began with the Tet Offensive by North Vietnamese and Viet Cong forces, which, though ultimately unsuccessful, inflicted many U.S. casualties and helped turn American public sentiment further against the war. On March 31, incumbent U.S. President Lyndon Johnson, facing criticism of the war effort from all sides, shockingly announced that he was ending his presidential re-election campaign. Just four days later, civil rights leader Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. , who preached nonviolent civil disobedience, was assassinated, leading to a further tearing of the fabric of our society. In June, Democratic presidential challenger Robert F. Kennedy, who based his campaign on criticism of Johnson over Vietnam, was also assassinated. By then, America had turned into a powder keg of unrest. In August, when the Democrats held their national convention in Chicago, things turned even worse, as police brutally assaulted antiwar protesters outside, while Democratic candidates and their supporters clashed politically inside the hall. As a result, Republican Richard Nixon, shrewdly campaigning on “law and order,” rode to victory.

A number of Republicans, media outlets, and even sometimes Democratic Party friend Bernie Sanders, are trying to draw parallels between 2024 and 1968. That is because currently, on the far left, there are university protests against President Joe Biden‘s support of America’s ally Israel in its war against terrorist group Hamas. Republicans, unsurprisingly, are exploiting these protests, with which they completely disagree, in order to play up criticism of President Biden and sow social disorder, which they hope could lead to a 1968-style GOP election victory. The news media, meanwhile, are more than happy to air lots of footage of the protests, giving them outsize importance.

However, 1968 and 2024 are very different. Here is a partial list of such differences:

Warning signs for Donald Trump in Pennsylvania

The Liberty Bell may toll for Joe Biden in 2024

On Tuesday, Pennsylvania held its 2024 Democratic and Republican presidential primaries. While President Joe Biden and Donald Trump each won their respective party’s primary as expected, more warning signs popped up for Trump. Specifically, while President Biden won the Democratic primary with over 88 percent of the vote and over 926,000 votes cast, Trump had just over 83 percent of the vote and only 789,000 total votes.

This Trump deficit is significant because Pennsylvania is one of a small number of “battleground” states that will likely determine the 2024 presidential election. As the Pennsylvania publication York Daily Record explains:

Pennsylvania has a long history of being consequential in presidential elections — choosing 20 of the last 25 presidents.

With 20 electoral votes up for grabs, it is considered by some analysts as the most important state in the 2020 presidential election.

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‘Campaigns know if their messaging works here, it can probably work nationally,’ said Jesse White, a political strategist at Perpetual Fortitude, a Democratic consulting and digital management firm. ‘To be able to come in here as a national campaign and have the resources and messaging to effectively win a state as diverse as Pennsylvania is real work.’

Trump is on trial, but what should we call it?

Suggestion from the 2018 State of the Union

Donald Trump is on trial right now in New York City, facing criminal charges for “business fraud.” However, that term is really the last step that began with (1) having adulterous affairs (2) with porn star Stormy Daniels and Playboy model Karen McDougal (3) just months after Trump’s wife Melania gave birth to son Barron, then (4) covering up the Daniels affair by paying $130,000 in “hush money” to Daniels (5) through Trump’s lawyer Michael Cohen, as well as (6) involving the Trump-friendly National Enquirer in paying $150,000 to McDougal to kill the story of her affair with Trump, and (7) paying off a Trump Tower doorman who claimed to have a story about a child Trump allegedly fathered out of wedlock. According to the New York prosecutors, the covering up of such payments by Trump and others constitutes falsifying New York State business records. Ultimately, all of these actions were designed to influence the 2016 presidential election by keeping important information about Trump’s character and crimes out of the news. And while the cover-ups worked to some extent in 2016, presumably the facts are not hidden anymore.

Understandably, however, the news media have had a bit of a hard time describing the subject matter of Trump’s trial for purposes of short headlines or to appeal to the short attention spans of many readers and viewers. Thus, we have seen the trial described as:

O.J. Simpson and the Norm MacDonald connection

O.J. Simpson in his TV pitchman days

As so much of the news coverage this week indicates, former football star and acquitted murder suspect O.J. Simpson died Wednesday of cancer. Simpson was preceded in death by comedian Norm MacDonald, who also died of cancer, in 2021. However, the connection between Simpson and MacDonald is much stronger than just their both having had cancer.

MacDonald was “Weekend Update” anchor on NBC‘s Saturday Night Live (SNL) from 1994-1998, coinciding with the period in which Simpson was on trial for murdering his ex-wife, Nicole Brown, and her friend Ron Goldman. Taking advantage of the the unprecedented news coverage of the Simpson trial, MacDonald made a cottage industry out of mocking what he believed was the very guilty Simpson. MacDonald’s many hard-hitting jokes about Simpson’s guilt have been collected on YouTube and can be found here and here. Perhaps MacDonald’s most infamous O.J. joke on SNL came after the jury acquitted Simpson of murder in 1995. MacDonald said: “Well, it is finally official: murder is legal in the state of California.” Eventually, this relentless mockery of Simpson led to Norm being fired, reportedly because NBC West Coast division President Don Ohlmeyer was a close friend of Simpson and could no longer stand to see his buddy kicked around on TV by MacDonald. As the previous link indicates, Rolling Stone magazine dubbed NBC’s MacDonald firing number four on its list of “The 50 Worst Decisions in TV History.”

Abortion measure could put Florida in play in 2024 elections

Abortion rights protests becoming more popular

Florida voters will have the opportunity to vote for abortion rights in the 2024 elections, as the Florida Supreme Court on Monday approved placing  a proposed amendment to Florida’s constitution on the ballot this November that would restrict Florida’s ability to ban abortion “before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health.” The proposed ballot measure emerged after the 6-3 Republican majority U.S. Supreme Court, with three new Republican justices nominated by Donald Trump, overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022, ruling that there is no constitutional right to abortion, and turning the issue over to the states. That year, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis  had signed a law banning abortions after 15 weeks. Then, last year, just before announcing his ill-fated presidential campaign, DeSantis signed a new six-week abortion ban. The Florida Supreme Court’s ruling on Monday allowed even the more restrictive six-week ban to take effect, highlighting the urgency of the voter amendment.

Florida has voted more Republican in recent years since Barack Obama won the state in both the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. For example, Ron DeSantis was elected Governor in 2018 by the narrowest of margins, but won re-election in 2022 by quite a large number of votes. Likewise, both houses of Florida’s legislature have big Republican majorities. And of course, Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Florida presidential election, and also beat Joe Biden in Florida in 2020.

The Florida abortion rights ballot measure, however, has the chance to turn Florida competitive for the Democrats once again in the 2024 elections, especially at the presidential level. Since the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe, for example, abortion rights have been a major issue helping the Democrats in numerous elections around the country. Moreover, according to a poll released last month, 12 percent of voters say that abortion is the most important issue in the 2024 elections, and such voters overwhelmingly support President Joe Biden over Donald Trump. Likewise, a poll released last November indicated that 62 percent of Florida voters favored the proposed abortion rights amendment. The Florida Supreme Court’s abortion rulings (as well as its ruling approving the placement on the ballot in November of a proposed constitutional amendment allowing recreational marijuana use for adults) similarly could drive Democratic and Independent voter turnout to defeat the Republicans in certain Sunshine State elections this year.

At the same time that so many Democratic voters are galvanizing around abortion rights and women’s health, the Republicans’ success in their 49-year effort to overturn Roe v. Wade ironically could take this central issue off the table for them in the upcoming elections. Accordingly, Florida may well become the place this November where Republicans learn the adage, “be careful what you wish for.”

Photo by Fibonacci Blue, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/uxGiIf

NBC News fails political test with Ronna Romney McDaniel

NBC’s peacock, now with ruffled feathers

NBC News a/k/a NBCUniversal News Group (which includes NBC News, MSNBC and CNBC) suffered an embarrassing setback this week, as it was pressured into letting go former Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Ronna Romney McDaniel just days after hiring her at MSNBC. A swift outcry from the public and, incredibly, some of NBC News’ well-known anchors, made it clear that McDaniel’s position at the company was untenable. These events also provide some lessons into what a television or cable TV “news” network should and should not do when it comes to politics.

First, we can stipulate that it is not out of bounds or even unusual for a TV news network to hire political people. Unfortunately, TV and other news media now largely focus on politics, something for which we often criticize them. No sooner do we see coverage of some news event (for example, the recent Francis Scott Key Bridge accident in Baltimore) than the coverage turns political, with TV panel discussions (or politicians’ statements in print or social media) about how the role of government or the current administration is somehow involved, and with the political folks at these media outlets retreating to their predictable political camps and talking points. Accordingly, those who watch broadcast or cable TV news will see familiar political faces such as James Carville, George Stephanopoulos (both from Bill Clinton‘s 1992 presidential campaign), Nicolle Wallace (George W. Bush‘s White House Communications Director), Michael Steele (former RNC Chair), Jen Psaki (Barack Obama‘s White House Communications Director), etc. on a regular basis, in addition to a bevy of guests with political jobs.

The difference here with Ronna Romney McDaniel is that, as RNC Chair during Donald Trump‘s White House term, including before, during and after the 2020 presidential election, she actively participated in the Trump/Republican attempt to nullify, overturn and steal the election. That is what triggered the immediate backlash from the public and from very prominent NBC News and MSNBC hosts such as Chuck Todd (who is NBC News’ Chief Political Analyst), Joe Scarborough, his Morning Joe co-host Mika Brzezinski, and Rachel Maddow. As Brzezinski stated on-air last Monday:

To be clear, we believe NBC News should seek out conservative Republican voices to provide balance in their election coverage. But it should be conservative Republicans, not a person who used her position of power to be an anti-democracy election denier. And we hope NBC will reconsider its decision.

Republican primaries show Trump has troubles

Nikki Haley, still taking votes from Donald Trump

Last Tuesday (March 19), Florida, Arizona, Illinois, Ohio and Kansas held their Republican presidential primaries. While Donald Trump, like President Joe Biden, had previously earned the necessary number of delegates to be his party’s nominee, a look at these latest primary results show a lingering problem for Trump. Specifically, while Trump has run unopposed since Nimrata “Nikki” Haley dropped out of the race on “Super Tuesday,” March 6, Trump has not gotten anywhere near the voting percentage that he should now be getting in the Republican primaries.

In Florida, for example, Trump received just over 81 percent of the vote. Nikki Haley received nearly 14 percent, and Ron DeSantis received 3.7 percent, even though both Haley and DeSantis are no longer running. According to Newsweek:

The results suggest the former president is losing support in Florida compared with the previous election in 2020. That year, he won about 94 percent of the state vote in the primary.

As for the excuse that some votes may have been cast for Haley before she dropped out on March 6, that would not explain that (a) plenty of early votes were cast after March 6, including early in-person voting on and after March 14, and (b) not only did Ron DeSantis receive a good number of votes, even Chris Christie received nearly 9,000 votes, and each of them dropped out of the campaign last January.

Time for Democrats to boost Kamala Harris

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris

At President Joe Biden‘s State of the Union address last Thursday night, many viewers noticed Vice President Kamala Harris seated behind Biden’s right shoulder, looking radiant, mature, and even presidential. This visual was a good reminder that the time for Democrats to raise Vice President Harris’ profile, and to boost her future presidential prospects, is now.

First, it should be noted that being Vice President is often a thankless job. Nearly 100 years ago, then-Vice President John Nance Garner stated that the vice presidency “isn’t worth a bucket of warm spit,” although many historians have indicated that the real word Garner used was not “spit.” More recently, biographer Robert Caro described in detail how Lyndon Johnson went from being one of the most powerful people in America as U.S. Senate Majority Leader, to being left out of nearly all important meetings and decisions as Vice President under President John F. Kennedy.

However, according to Caro, Johnson accepted the job of Kennedy’s vice presidential running mate in large part because he researched and determined that a significant number of presidents did not complete their full terms, usually because they died in office, and that, accordingly, numerous vice presidents had succeeded to the presidency. That is in addition to the vice presidents who went on to win election for president after their predecessors completed their terms. This is exactly what happened to Lyndon Johnson in November 1963, when President Kennedy was assassinated. Johnson served the remainder of Kennedy’s term, then went on to win re-election in 1964 by a huge landslide. Since Johnson’s presidency, one Vice President, Gerald Ford, automatically became president in 1974 when President Richard Nixon resigned under threat of impeachment and removal by Congress, and another Vice President, George H.W. Bush, won the presidency after serving two terms in his job. Joe Biden also was elected president after he had completed two terms as vice president under President Obama, with Donald Trump‘s single term taking place after the Obama presidency.

All of this is relevant because, if and when President Biden gets re-elected this November, he will be 81 years old, turning 82 that same month (it should also be noted that Trump is almost the same age, turning 78 this June). Therefore, as a simple actuarial matter, Kamala Harris needs to be prepared for the possibility that she might be called on to step into the presidency at a moment’s notice sometime before January 20, 2029. Additionally or alternatively, Harris will be the likely Democratic presidential front-runner in the 2028 elections.