The Biden – Trump presidential debate will be a bust

Donald Trump may be unhappy with the debate rules

Are you tired of the media hype that surrounds events like the Super Bowl and the Oscars nowadays? Do you think they have become overblown and almost unwatchable? Don’t worry, you can add presidential debates to the list as well. As we have noted, the presidential debates have become inane and, due to their format, even cringeworthy. From inadequate response times to interruptions to flag pins, the debates are designed to provide more heat than light.

This year, the first presidential debate between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump takes place just two days from now, on Thursday, June 27. The debate is being hosted and aired by CNN at its Atlanta studios, and is receiving plenty of advance hype. Furthermore, two rule changes make this debate different from most presidential debates: First, there will be no live audience. Second, the candidate’s microphones will be muted unless the candidate has been prompted by the moderators to answer a question.

We think these changes will make Thursday’s Biden/Trump debate not only inane as usual, but extra boring. The audience often plays a part, cheering for their candidate, even when asked by the moderators not to do so. And the microphone muting will likely eliminate Trump’s childish outbursts when someone else is speaking, as Trump did so often to his Republican primary rivals, his Democratic opponents, and even the moderators in years past. Add to that the scheduling of this debate, during early summer when voters are probably thinking more about barbecues and camping trips than presidential politics, and we have the makings for a snooze fest.

Ultimately, this debate is likely to be a wash. It’s doubtful that either candidate will stumble so badly as to lose many votes, or give such brilliant, hard-hitting substantive responses as to win them. Rather, as often happens, when the debate ends, each candidate’s campaign officials and fans will quickly and loudly proclaim that their guy won. And then they’ll ask for donations.

Photo by Ron Cogswell, used under Creative Commons. https://is.gd/qGdeGt

Biden hammers Trump with new ad campaign

President Joe Biden, statesman

President Joe Biden‘s reelection campaign announced a new $50 million advertising campaign this week, aimed at drawing what is described as “contrasts” between Biden and his opponent Donald Trump in advance of their first debate scheduled for June 27. Based on the first ad released as part of this ad campaign (view the ad here), “contrasts” is a nice way to put it. The ad, titled “Character Matters,” begins by stating that Trump has “been convicted of 34 felonies, found liable for sexual assault, and he committed financial fraud.” The contrast part comes in next:

Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s been working, lowering healthcare costs, and making big corporations pay their fair share. This election is between a convicted criminal who’s only out for himself, and a president who’s fighting for your family.”

There are several reasons why this new Biden ad is so good. First, it forcefully goes on offense, something for which Democratic voters have been clamoring for decades, and for which we have been calling since the beginning of Messaging Matters. Second, Biden’s ad is accurate, as opposed to some deceptively edited or “deepfake” ad or video of the type that Republicans are now creating and distributing. Such accuracy is important both to maintain Democratic standards, and because, if the ad was inaccurate, the mainstream media would spend their time attacking it. Third, the ad contrasts Trump’s criminal convictions with Biden’s competent, effective work for Americans, adding the zinger that Trump is “only out for himself.” In short, the Biden campaign ad does a lot, in a simple way, in 30 seconds.

Moreover, this was just the first ad of the new Biden campaign effort. Suffice it to say, we cannot wait for the next one.

Photo by Number 10, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/AbBULo

Record-setting rain and heat in Florida, but it’s illegal to say “climate change”

Flooded Sarasota, FL roads after Hurricane Ian, 2022

South Florida is still undergoing a days-long, torrential rain storm that has dumped up to 20 inches of water in some areas. In the city of Sarasota on Tuesday evening, eight inches of rain fell in just three hours, something that NBC News stated only happens “every 500 to 1,000 years.”

This record-setting south Florida rain in the first half of June follows what NBC News also said was the warmest May on record in the area. Moreover, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts “above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year,” in part due to “near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean.” Something is going on, and we know what it’s called: climate change. Incredibly, however, instead of taking steps to fight climate change (such as promoting solar and wind power and electric vehicles), Florida’s Republican state government officials, headed by Governor Ron DeSantis, are hiding their heads in the increasingly wet and eroding sand. Indeed, just last month, during the aforementioned record heat, DeSantis signed a Republican bill “that erases most references to ‘climate change’ from state law.” Meanwhile, insurance companies, which do not have the luxury of denying climate change, are getting out of the home insurance business in Florida, and the ones who stay are charging the highest rates in the nation.

President Biden takes on Russia, dictators and Republicans at Normandy

The ultimate cost of freedom at Normandy

Marking the 80th anniversary of the allied “D-Day” invasion, President Joe Biden joined the leaders of America’s World War II allies (France, Britain, Canada and others) in Normandy, France yesterday, to deliver a powerful message to the world’s dictators and “bullies” (see video here). Describing World War II as being about “democracy” versus “dictators,” and likewise “the battle between freedom and tyranny,” Biden then said that, after defeating tyranny in World War II, “we established NATO, the greatest military alliance in the history of the world.” Biden then took on Russia‘s invasion and war against Ukraine, comparing it directly to World War II:

The struggle between dictatorship and freedom is unending. Here in Europe, we see one stark example. Ukraine has been invaded by a tyrant bent on domination. Ukrainians are fighting with extraordinary courage, suffering great losses, but never backing down…. The United States and NATO, and a coalition of more than 50 countries, standing strong with Ukraine. We will not walk away. Because if we do, Ukraine will be subjugated, and it will not end there. Ukraine’s neighbors will be threatened. All of Europe will be threatened. And make no mistake: the autocrats of the world are watching closely to see what happens in Ukraine, to see if we let this illegal aggression go unchecked. We cannot let that happen. To surrender to bullies, to bow down to dictators, is simply unthinkable.

A tale of two Memorial Days

President Joe Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris and Defense Secy. Lloyd Austin at Arlington National Cemetery, 5/27/24

When then-U.S. Senator John Edwards campaigned for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2003 and 2004, one of his main themes was that “there are two Americas,” meaning those who are well-off economically (or who don’t face discrimination based on race, religion, gender, etc.), and the rest of us. Edwards was correct, but there is also another major divide in America: the divide between the political right and left. That right-left political divide often shows up, for example, in the “news” sources that people choose, from the powerful Republican media machine (Fox “News,” Newsmax, OAN, the New York Post, the Wall Street Journal, etc.) on the right to a smattering of blogs, which cannot compete with such Republican machine, on the left. And nowhere was this right-left political divide more on display last weekend than in the Memorial Day messages from President Joe Biden and his upcoming election opponent, Donald Trump.

President Biden, the father of a son who served in the military and who died prematurely (though he was not killed in combat), displayed his well-known patriotism, compassion and decency in his Memorial Day speech, given at Arlington National Cemetery. Some of Biden’s quotes included:

Hit job headline against President Biden

President Biden touts “Bidenomics” in Maryland

There is a strange disconnect happening in the country, between actual economic realities and people’s perception of the economy. As to the former, many of the numbers today and during President Joe Biden‘s administration are stunningly good, including solid economic growth, record job creation and low unemployment, wage growth, rebuilding our infrastructure, $160 billion in student loan forgiveness so far, and a stock market that just hit a record 40,000, causing millions of Americans’ retirement accounts to grow. Even as to persistent inflation, which began after the U.S. economy shut down during the 2020 Trump Recession, it has been heading in the right direction (steadily down), in part thanks to efforts by President Biden and the Democrats. Those efforts include passing the Inflation Reduction Act, which, among other things, capped insulin for Medicare recipients at $35 per month and extended tax credits for electric vehicles and residential and commercial solar energy installations. Moreover, record oil production under President Biden helps keep gasoline prices down.

At the same time, however, we keep hearing stories that, as Voice of America reported last January:

Despite those robust numbers, most Americans, 68%, say the economy is worsening, according to a December 2023 Gallup poll, which showed that four in five U.S. adults rate the country’s current economic conditions as “poor” (45%) or “fair” (33%). Only 19% of people polled said the economy is “good,” in keeping with the positive economic markers.

Again, somewhat oddly, the same VOA article reported:

However, Justin Wolfers, a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan, questions the accuracy of polls and says people’s actions suggest they believe the economy is doing well.

“How would we figure out if the American consumer were in fact optimistic? I think the first thing you do is you look at consumption spending, because if you expect the economy to be terrible, you’d squirrel away money for this coming recession,” Wolfers said. “But instead, people have been spending money as if they believe, not only is the economy good, it’s going to continue to be good.”

Given these mixed signals at best on the economy, the Biden administration and leading Democrats likely need to do a better job communicating good news. However, it’s tough for President Biden and the Democrats to get proper credit for the success of “Bidenomics” when we have mainstream media headlines like this one from  Yahoo! Finance last Wednesday:

Grocery prices jumped 1.2% last month as food inflation returns to pre-pandemic levels.”

What a confusing and misleading headline. First, as the video and text accompanying the article indicate, grocery prices didn’t “jump” last month, they “dropped 0.2%” from the previous month (emphasis added). Second, if the relevant measure is year to year, again the video included in the article indicates that grocery prices increased 1.1 percent, not 1.2 percent. Third, as is indicated later in the text, this small increase reflects very low inflation. Grocery prices are moderating, and are now increasing well below the overall inflation rate. Indeed, the “pre-pandemic levels” part of the Yahoo! Finance headline means before the last round of inflation hit, i.e., when inflation was in the two percent range.

No one likes inflation, but what a poor job of journalism in the headline and lede of this particular story. Sadly, that is the kind of sloppy or biased reporting that occurs too much in our media. Likewise, when media outlets report good economic news, and then, often in the same sentence, state that President Biden isn’t receiving proper credit for the good economy, the outlets are perpetuating the problem.

How do we combat this kind of reporting? At minimum, we have to call it out and correct it, far and wide.

Photo by Maryland GovPics, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/so9TcZ

In university Gaza protests, 2024 is not 1968

President Biden, fighting for peace

Those old enough to remember the tumultuous year 1968, or who have studied the events of that year, know that it was an earthquake in American politics, changing the course of the nation and the world. Overhanging everything was dissatisfaction with the U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War, which had been growing for several years. 1968 began with the Tet Offensive by North Vietnamese and Viet Cong forces, which, though ultimately unsuccessful, inflicted many U.S. casualties and helped turn American public sentiment further against the war. On March 31, incumbent U.S. President Lyndon Johnson, facing criticism of the war effort from all sides, shockingly announced that he was ending his presidential re-election campaign. Just four days later, civil rights leader Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. , who preached nonviolent civil disobedience, was assassinated, leading to a further tearing of the fabric of our society. In June, Democratic presidential challenger Robert F. Kennedy, who based his campaign on criticism of Johnson over Vietnam, was also assassinated. By then, America had turned into a powder keg of unrest. In August, when the Democrats held their national convention in Chicago, things turned even worse, as police brutally assaulted antiwar protesters outside, while Democratic candidates and their supporters clashed politically inside the hall. As a result, Republican Richard Nixon, shrewdly campaigning on “law and order,” rode to victory.

A number of Republicans, media outlets, and even sometimes Democratic Party friend Bernie Sanders, are trying to draw parallels between 2024 and 1968. That is because currently, on the far left, there are university protests against President Joe Biden‘s support of America’s ally Israel in its war against terrorist group Hamas. Republicans, unsurprisingly, are exploiting these protests, with which they completely disagree, in order to play up criticism of President Biden and sow social disorder, which they hope could lead to a 1968-style GOP election victory. The news media, meanwhile, are more than happy to air lots of footage of the protests, giving them outsize importance.

However, 1968 and 2024 are very different. Here is a partial list of such differences:

Warning signs for Donald Trump in Pennsylvania

The Liberty Bell may toll for Joe Biden in 2024

On Tuesday, Pennsylvania held its 2024 Democratic and Republican presidential primaries. While President Joe Biden and Donald Trump each won their respective party’s primary as expected, more warning signs popped up for Trump. Specifically, while President Biden won the Democratic primary with over 88 percent of the vote and over 926,000 votes cast, Trump had just over 83 percent of the vote and only 789,000 total votes.

This Trump deficit is significant because Pennsylvania is one of a small number of “battleground” states that will likely determine the 2024 presidential election. As the Pennsylvania publication York Daily Record explains:

Pennsylvania has a long history of being consequential in presidential elections — choosing 20 of the last 25 presidents.

With 20 electoral votes up for grabs, it is considered by some analysts as the most important state in the 2020 presidential election.

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‘Campaigns know if their messaging works here, it can probably work nationally,’ said Jesse White, a political strategist at Perpetual Fortitude, a Democratic consulting and digital management firm. ‘To be able to come in here as a national campaign and have the resources and messaging to effectively win a state as diverse as Pennsylvania is real work.’

Trump is on trial, but what should we call it?

Suggestion from the 2018 State of the Union

Donald Trump is on trial right now in New York City, facing criminal charges for “business fraud.” However, that term is really the last step that began with (1) having adulterous affairs (2) with porn star Stormy Daniels and Playboy model Karen McDougal (3) just months after Trump’s wife Melania gave birth to son Barron, then (4) covering up the Daniels affair by paying $130,000 in “hush money” to Daniels (5) through Trump’s lawyer Michael Cohen, as well as (6) involving the Trump-friendly National Enquirer in paying $150,000 to McDougal to kill the story of her affair with Trump, and (7) paying off a Trump Tower doorman who claimed to have a story about a child Trump allegedly fathered out of wedlock. According to the New York prosecutors, the covering up of such payments by Trump and others constitutes falsifying New York State business records. Ultimately, all of these actions were designed to influence the 2016 presidential election by keeping important information about Trump’s character and crimes out of the news. And while the cover-ups worked to some extent in 2016, presumably the facts are not hidden anymore.

Understandably, however, the news media have had a bit of a hard time describing the subject matter of Trump’s trial for purposes of short headlines or to appeal to the short attention spans of many readers and viewers. Thus, we have seen the trial described as:

O.J. Simpson and the Norm MacDonald connection

O.J. Simpson in his TV pitchman days

As so much of the news coverage this week indicates, former football star and acquitted murder suspect O.J. Simpson died Wednesday of cancer. Simpson was preceded in death by comedian Norm MacDonald, who also died of cancer, in 2021. However, the connection between Simpson and MacDonald is much stronger than just their both having had cancer.

MacDonald was “Weekend Update” anchor on NBC‘s Saturday Night Live (SNL) from 1994-1998, coinciding with the period in which Simpson was on trial for murdering his ex-wife, Nicole Brown, and her friend Ron Goldman. Taking advantage of the the unprecedented news coverage of the Simpson trial, MacDonald made a cottage industry out of mocking what he believed was the very guilty Simpson. MacDonald’s many hard-hitting jokes about Simpson’s guilt have been collected on YouTube and can be found here and here. Perhaps MacDonald’s most infamous O.J. joke on SNL came after the jury acquitted Simpson of murder in 1995. MacDonald said: “Well, it is finally official: murder is legal in the state of California.” Eventually, this relentless mockery of Simpson led to Norm being fired, reportedly because NBC West Coast division President Don Ohlmeyer was a close friend of Simpson and could no longer stand to see his buddy kicked around on TV by MacDonald. As the previous link indicates, Rolling Stone magazine dubbed NBC’s MacDonald firing number four on its list of “The 50 Worst Decisions in TV History.”