Republicans may wish they never win a tiny House majority

Is it Taps for the GOP?

As of now, the Republican Party can be fairly described as having failed miserably in the 2022 midterm elections. Considering that the party in power almost always loses many seats in Congress in the first midterms two years into a new president’s term, and given the headwinds of COVID, Russia‘s war against Ukraine, and the resulting high inflation in the U.S. and around the world, the Democrats wildly exceeded expectations of a sweeping Republican “Red Wave” this time. Specifically, the Democratic Party has retained control of the U.S. Senate with at least 50 votes (Vice President Kamala Harris can provide the 51st vote for the Democrats in case of a 50-50 tie), and it may even gain a Senate seat in the upcoming Georgia runoff election on December 6.

Additionally, Democrats have increased their number of state Governorships held, gained seats and majorities in state legislatures, defeated the Republican candidates for Secretary of State who deny the results of the 2020 presidential election (and who would have been in a position in charge of elections in their state to meddle in the 2024 elections), and, where abortion rights were on the ballot, voted to protect such rights. One only need to look at the current Republican Party meltdown, including piling on Donald Trump, to judge the political consequences of the midterms.

Nevertheless, the results of the midterm elections in the U.S. House of Representatives are still unknown. According to the Associated Press, Republicans have won 217 seats, Democrats have won 209, and the outcomes for the remaining 9 seats are still being tabulated. The magic number to gain majority control in the 435-member House is 218. Thus, a number of pundits and news media organizations are projecting that Republicans will win the narrowest of majorities, by approximately one to five seats. If that occurs, Republicans may wish it never happened. Here’s why:

Elon Musk’s Twitter acquisition is the latest attempt to stop progress

Where Twitter may be headed

Sometimes it takes a history professor to put things in perspective. In a mind-blowing Twitter thread last weekend, Professor Walter D. Greason of Macalester College in St. Paul, MN did just that. Specifically, Greason described the conservatives’ efforts to destroy liberal/progressive advances that have been boosted by the internet and social media, which he calls “convergence.” Gleason names Elon Musk‘s takeover of Twitter as the latest attempt to stop such progress, i.e., Republican “counter-convergence.” After the jump is Greason’s fascinating Twitter thread. If you have Twitter, you can click on “read the full conversation on Twitter” at the bottom of his first tweet. If not, we have included key tweets from the thread:

What should Democratic Twitter users do now that Elon Musk has taken over?

Two things that are back on Twitter

After a months-long effort, Elon Musk finally took over ownership and control of the Twitter social networking platform last week. Now, many Democratic Twitter users are concerned about what Musk will do with the influential platform. That is because Musk is not only the world’s richest person, he has also become a full-blown MAGA Republican. In May, Musk announced that he was switching from voting Democratic to Republican, because, according to him, Democrats “have become the party of division & hate.” He also refers to Democratic and progressive values as “the woke mind virus.”

True to his conservative political colors, Musk has already taken some initial steps to turn Twitter into more of a right wing hate fest, including firing the executive in charge of Twitter’s content moderation policy, and reportedly planning to allow Donald Trump and Kanye (Ye) West back on the platform to spew their divisive lies. Not surprisingly, on the first day that Musk took over, there was a reported flood of racist tweets, including Nazi memes and a massive increase in use of the N-word, on the platform. Thus, the obvious question becomes: what should Democratic and other good Twitter users do in response?

In Ukraine, these three little letters mean a lot

Ukraine support rally

While reading this article from the World Bank regarding emerging markets, this sentence caused a major pause:

The invasion of the Ukraine has triggered an initial appreciation of the U.S. dollar against EM currencies ….

The Ukraine”? Haven’t we read and heard repeatedly that we shouldn’t use “the” because that feeds into the Soviet-era position that Ukraine is Russia’s territory, not its own nation? Hopefully the inclusion of “the” in the article was an oversight, and indeed there is a mention of “the war in Ukraine” earlier in the article. But often, articles from large organizations pass through more than one writer or editor, so it’s not clear that everyone at the World Bank is on the same page.

This is something to keep an eye on, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine involves not just military weapons, but weapons of words and propaganda as well.

Photo by Robert T Bell, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/DCaHhz

Anatomy of a Republican conspiracy theory

The Republicans’ positive plan

Nearly everyone knows that inflation is a problem, and that there are various proposals to solve it. However, some Republicans this year have been spouting a conspiracy theory: that the U.S. Federal Reserve is waiting until after the November 2022 midterm elections to raise interest rates, in order to help President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party. While this is just the latest in a long line of right wing conspiracy theories about the Fed, this particularly silly theory can be easily debunked a few steps:

–The current Federal Reserve Board Chairman is Republican Jerome Powell, who was appointed by Donald Trump. This fact alone should be enough to destroy the conspiracy theory. Moreover, of the seven Governors on the Fed’s board, three are Republican, which is normal during a Democratic administration. And in addition to Powell, these other Republicans were also appointed by Donald Trump. Given that the Fed Board’s votes to raise interest rates this year typically have been unanimous, one would have to believe the truly ludicrous theory that these Trump appointees are voting to help Biden and the Democrats.

–As indicated above, the Fed has been raising interest rates all year long. The Federal Funds Benchmark rate, which started at .25 percent early this year is now 3-3.25 percent, enough to sharply raise mortgage, auto loan and other rates. So if the plan was to delay rate increases until after the election, the Fed has failed miserably.

Elitist Dr. Oz is the new Mitt Romney

Latest attack on Dr. Oz

In the 2012 presidential election, Republican nominee Willard Mitt Romney inadvertently and repeatedly identified himself as Mr. Elitist/Moneybags/1%, and his Democratic opponent, President Barack Obama, quickly took advantage of the theme. The Obama campaign thus followed our Messaging Maxim #4: Feed the Narrative. Indeed, Romney fed this narrative himself, for example, by talking about his dressage horse Rafalca, revealing that his family travels by car with their dog strapped to the roof, and his infamous “WaWa’s” moment, where, getting the name wrong, Romney claimed to buy “hoagies” at gas station convenience stores. Needless to say, President Obama defeated Romney in a landslide.

Now, 10 years later, TV personality Dr. Mehmet Oz is committing many of these same elitist reveals as the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania. Here is a handy chart showing how Dr. Oz is the new Mitt Romney:

Democratic Congressional candidate flips the script on Republican opponent

A most unusual TV campaign ad is airing in Florida, by Democratic State Senator and Congressional candidate Annette Taddeo. Here is the ad (which can also be accessed at the previous link):

Taddeo’s ad, which attacks her Republican opponent María Salazar, the incumbent Representative in Florida’s 27th Congressional District in the Miami area, is unusual in a number of ways, and may be quite effective as a result:

John Fetterman’s casual Senate campaign

PA Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, left, in typical attire

Recently, we posted about how New Jersey Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz‘s U.S. Senate campaign in Pennsylvania is imploding, and how his Democratic opponent, Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, is taking brilliant advantage of every Oz blunder. Some of the highlights of Dr. Oz’s out-of-touch (and out-of-state) elitism we covered include his 10 houses and his hapless “crudité” video, where Oz tried to cosplay as a Man of the People, and failed hilariously.

What makes Fetterman so appealing in contrast to Dr. Oz is his authenticity as an actual Regular Guy, who wears hoodies and gym shorts on the campaign trail, lives across the street from a steel mill instead of in State House where he and his family are entitled to live, and is a lifelong Pennsylvanian. Fetterman served as the Mayor of his town, Braddock (a predominantly black town outside of Pittsburgh), and even has its zip code tattooed on his forearm.

The other thing that distinguishes Fetterman as an Average Joe is his use of language, which is decidedly not like that of a politician. In particular, Fetterman’s language is casual to the point of occasional profanity.

Democrats’ midterm election “Freedom” theme takes hold

Democrats in array this time

When one thinks of a political party marching in lockstep, using the same campaign phrase, the Democratic Party usually does not come to mind. However, that’s just what’s happening as the 2022 midterm elections approach. As we indicated in July, the Democrats, starting with President Joe Biden, began saying that “Freedom is on the ballot” in the upcoming elections:

In what could not be a coincidence, President Biden was joined at the same time with the same language by Democratic Congressman Eric Swalwell:

Those two concurrent tweets were enough to identify a theme here, but now President Biden and Rep. Swalwell have been joined by more Democrats expressing the “Freedom” message for the midterms:

Dr. Oz Senate campaign implosion reaches comical levels

Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. and U.S. Senate candidate John Fetterman

The 2022 Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race between television personality Dr. Mehmet Oz on the Republican side and Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman is capturing tons of national media attention, but not for the reasons Dr. Oz would prefer. The  Oz campaign has been especially tone-deaf, making one mistake after another, and Fetterman and his campaign have been quick to capitalize on each one.

Essentially, the Oz-Fetterman race has turned into a Culture War, to the great disadvantage of Dr. Oz. Usually, it’s the Republicans who try to run on Culture War issues, whether it’s abortion, attacking LGBTQ people and their rights, book banning, guns, etc., mostly as a distraction, because Republicans are extremely unpopular on economic and other issues of importance to most Americans. In Pennsylvania, however, Fetterman has turned the tables on Republicans regarding cultural issues.