Hillary Clinton, 67, at Tom Harkin Steak Fry, September 2014
The post-election analysis of the Democratic Party’s massive losses has covered numerous factors, including Republican dark money, a lack of a unified Democratic message, and historic trends for the sixth year of a two-term incumbent president. Some pundits say “just wait until 2016” when the Democrats will make a stunning comeback, winning the White House and retaking the U.S. Senate. However, few of these analysts mention a potential time bomb that could spoil the Democrats’ 2016 election chances. That time bomb is age.
Consider the current Democratic Party stars. Elizabeth Warren (age 65) comes to mind first, even though she has stated repeatedly that she does not plan to run for President. Next comes Hillary Clinton (age 67). Bernie Sanders (age 73) is also hitting the talk show circuit, saying he’s a possible presidential candidate (although Bernie technically is an independent, he caucuses with the Democrats in the Senate, and might want to take advantage of the Democratic Party machine if he runs for president). Joe Biden (age 71) is Vice President, and naturally might want to run for President, as Vice President George H.W. Bush did successfully in 1988 after serving under Ronald Reagan for two terms. But voters in 2016 could decide that all these Democratic Party stars are too old to be President!
The other Democratic presidential possibles on the list by and large aren’t terribly young either. Former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer is 59. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is 56. Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley is 51. Former Navy Secretary and Virginia Senator Jim Webb is 68. Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper is 62. New York Senator Kirsten Gilibrand (age 47) is the only potential Democratic presidential candidate on this list who is under 50. And all these candidates will be two years older when the 2016 elections roll around. Perhaps in the future, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro and his twin brother, Texas Congressman Joaquin Castro, both age 40, will be considered presidential prospects, but that seems unlikely for 2016, where the first Democratic primary debates are just six months away.
Now consider the Republican presidential bench. Rand Paul (age 51) is the current GOP frontrunner. Ted Cruz (age 43) seems to be in the running, and Tea Partiers love him. Others on the Republican list include Louisiana Governor Piyush “Bobby” Jindal (age 43), Chris Christie (age 52), Marco Rubio (age 43), Rick Santorum (age 56), Mike Huckabee (age 59), Paul Ryan (age 44), Rob Portman (age 58) and Scott Walker (age 47). Jeb Bush (age 61) is one of the few potential Republican candidates over 60, along with Rick Perry (age 64) and John Kasich (age 62). It’s hard to take seriously the talk that the oldest of the bunch, Willard Mitt Romney (age 67), would run for president again. Finally, one rising star of the Republican Party has a familiar name and time on his side. That’s George P. Bush (age 38), who just landed his first statewide job as Commissioner of the Texas General Land Office.
Fox News viewers and conservative Republican voters may skew older, but there are plenty of older people in America, and they vote in large numbers, more often for Republicans. Therefore, Democrats need to energize a lot of younger voters. Is running older candidates the best way to do that?
Indeed, the Presidency now seems to be a young person’s office. Modern communications makes being a Democratic President basically a 24-hour a day job (Republicans seem to be able to work less in office, whether it is George W. Bush taking an astonishing 349 days of vacation or Ronald Reagan being, well, detached). Check out the before and after pictures of presidents such as Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and now Barack Obama to see the physical toll that being a hands-on president takes. The past three Presidents, i.e., those in the Internet age, were elected at age 46 (Clinton), 54 (W. Bush) and 47 (Obama), respectively. Remember “Lizard Man” and “Green Screen” John McCain in contrast? Thus, it’s not a great sign that President Obama, who will be finishing eight years as President on January 2017 and thus by definition will be a political has-been, will still be, at age 55, one of the youngest leaders of the Democratic Party.
It would take more research to find out whether the Democratic candidates holding or running for down-ticket offices (state legislatures, school boards, etc.) are any younger than, or at least around the same age as, their Republican counterparts. It was very exciting to see an 18 year-old college student, Saira Blair, become the youngest elected official in America when she won a seat in the West Virginia House of Delegates. However, Blair is a conservative Republican. Are Democrats attracting young people like this to run for office?
It may be that the current Democratic Party stars will attract enthusiastic younger voters and do very well in 2016. For example, Elizabeth Warren talks a lot about affordable student loans. For the future, we know that excitement about the top of the ticket often brings voters out to vote for such down-ticket offices. Therefore, the Democrats need some new blood at all levels of the Party, from the President on down to state and local candidates (who might later advance to national candidates), in order to excite younger voters who will be crucial to future election victories.
Photo by Karen Murphy, used under Creative Commons license. http://is.gd/hwukBe
