Tag Archive: 2016 Elections

Hillary Clinton vs. Bernie Sanders: the endgame appears

Bernie Sanders speaking in South Bronx, NY

Bernie Sanders speaking in South Bronx, NY

Last night’s Democratic Party primary results in Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Connecticut and Rhode Island were clarifying for a couple of reasons. First, Hillary Clinton‘s wins over Bernie Sanders in four out of the five states other than tiny Rhode Island, especially her healthy and wide margins of victory, respectively, in delegate-rich Pennsylvania and Maryland, all but assured that Clinton will clinch the Democratic Party nomination for president. The other clarifying element of last night’s results was that the endgame for Clinton, Sanders and the Democratic Party finally started to emerge. Here’s what that endgame looked like:

Bernie Sanders vs. Hillary Clinton: time to de-escalate

Hillary Clinton speaking in Durham, NC

Hillary Clinton speaking in Durham, NC

Last night’s New York Democratic Party primary was a defining moment in the sometimes nasty presidential nomination contest between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Clinton won a decisive victory, with a margin as of this writing of some 16 percent and a net gain of about 33 pledged delegates. [Note: these results are subject to updates]. Coming at a time when Sanders needs to win virtually every state left by a landslide, his loss to Clinton in New York turns his nomination chances from “nearly impossible” to “pretty much unimaginable.” Perhaps knowing this, Sanders spent yesterday in Pennsylvania instead of New York, supposedly to campaign for next Tuesday’s primaries, but then reportedly left his press corps in Pennsylvania last night and exited back home to Vermont. So the question becomes, what happens now?

The Bernie Sanders tax fiasco

Presumably a pro-tax protester, 2010

Presumably a pro-tax protester, 2010

Why hasn’t Bernie Sanders released his tax returns for prior years? That’s the question an increasing number of people are asking. First, Sanders answered, “My wife does our tax returns. We have been a little busy lately.” Then, Sanders falsely claimed that “Of course, we have released them in the past.” On Monday, Bernie’s wife Jane gave an interview with Mark Halperin of Bloomberg TV‘s “With All Due Respect” that was beyond embarrassing on the Sanders’ taxes issue. Jane Sanders said, in response to various questions by Halperin: “I have to go back and find them,” “We haven’t been home for a month,” “When they’re due, I would expect them to come out,” “They’ve [the Clintons] been in office all these years, they have done it,” etc. In reaction to all of these delays and excuses by the Sanders, folks are starting to say the following things:

Hillary Clinton moves into general election mode

Hillary Clinton speaking in Durham, NC

Hillary Clinton speaking in Durham, NC

Hillary Clinton gave a speech in Madison, Wisconsin on Monday, in which she blasted Republicans for refusing to consider President Barack Obama‘s U.S. Supreme Court nominee, Merrick Garland. Likewise, Clinton has released a new ad focusing on New Yorkers, and specifically attacking Donald Trump. Clinton’s new focus on Trump, the Republicans and Supreme Court nominations — one of a president’s most important Constitutional powers — seems to represent a shift from the presidential primaries to the general election.

Reasons 6-10 why Bernie Sanders is losing the Democratic presidential nomination

Bernie Sanders in Iowa

Bernie Sanders in Iowa

Based on the cold hard math of the Democratic Party primaries, the pundits are saying that Bernie Sanders‘ chances of winning the Democratic presidential nomination are “nearly impossible.” Last Friday, we published Reasons 1-5 why Bernie Sanders is losing the Democratic presidential nomination to Hillary Clinton. Here, in no particular order, are reasons 6-10 on our Top Ten list:

Reasons 1-5 why Bernie Sanders is losing the Democratic presidential nomination

Bernie Sanders

Bernie Sanders

The term the pundits are using now to describe Bernie Sanders‘ chances of winning the Democratic Party presidential nomination is “nearly impossible.” Looking at the cold hard math of the Democratic Party nomination process, especially the proportional rather than winner-take-all awarding of state “pledged” delegates, we agree. If Hillary Clinton does capture the requisite majority of delegates as expected, the blame game will begin as to why Sanders lost. Here, in no particular order, are the first five reasons for Sanders’ failure:

Bernie Sanders loses Democratic presidential nomination to Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton with supporters at Hillside High School, Durham, NC.

Hillary Clinton with supporters at Hillside High School, Durham, NC.

This is the headline the mainstream media would be running today if they were honest. Last night, Hillary Clinton racked up decisive wins in the delegate-rich Florida, North Carolina and Ohio Democratic Party primaries, as well as narrow wins in Illinois and Missouri. Almost no one expected Clinton to do so well in last night’s primaries, especially in Ohio. Moreover, due to the cold hard math of the Democratic Party’s proportional delegate allocation (i.e., delegates are awarded based on share of the popular vote in each state, rather than winner take all), Clinton netted approximately 100 delegates over Sanders, to increase her overall lead to about 314 delegates, 1139 to 825 (all totals approximate, as different sources sometimes differ slightly and could be updated).

Bernie Sanders’ political revolution morphs into Fidel Castro’s revolution

Fidel Castro, whom the Republicans could make Bernie Sanders' running mate

Fidel Castro, whom the Republicans could make Bernie Sanders’ running mate

By all reasonable measurements, Bernie Sanders‘ promised “political revolution” has not happened. Probably the two best such measurements — Democratic primary voter turnout, and Sanders’ share of the black and Latino primary vote — vividly demonstrate this. Instead, however, another type of revolution was associated with Bernie Sanders this week: Fidel Castro‘s revolution in Cuba.

The cold hard math of the Democratic primaries — Part 2

Bernie Sanders speaking, January 2016

Bernie Sanders speaking, January 2016

Bernie Sanders is no doubt celebrating his narrow win over Hillary Clinton in the Michigan Democratic Primary last night, and Sanders is getting plenty of media buzz today. Unfortunately, Sanders’ win may be too little, too late, due to the cold hard math of the Democratic primaries.

How Scalia’s death could help Hillary Clinton

U.S. Supreme Court Justices Antonin Scalia and Ruth Bader Ginsburg

U.S. Supreme Court Justices Antonin Scalia and Ruth Bader Ginsburg

It is said that voters vote with their hearts in the primaries and with their heads in the general election. However, the death of right wing U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia at age 79 might cut that process short. In particular, in the Democratic primaries, Scalia’s death may focus voters’ attention on using their heads and  strategy, which may be more associated with Hillary Clinton, and less on Clinton’s aspirational competitor, Bernie Sanders. Here are several reasons why: