Plenty of this floating around in the economy

With less than 11 months until the 2024 elections, the U.S. economy under the stewardship of President Joe Biden is looking quite strong. Here are some of the latest numbers demonstrating that so-called “Bidenomics” is working:

—Economic growth last quarter, as represented by the change in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), was a stunning 5.2 percent.

—Inflation continues to tick down, and is now at 3.1 percent. The Federal Reserve says it expects that number to continue to drop to the mid-2 percent range next year, and even lower in 2025, towards the Fed’s dream 2 percent target. The scenario we’re experiencing is the rare “soft landing” that avoids a recession. Moreover, President Biden deserves credit, for example, for getting the Inflation Reduction Act passed through a sharply divided Congress.

–As a result, the Fed this week decided against another interest rate increase, instead stating that it plans three rate cuts in 2024. That is welcome news for any business or individual desiring to borrow money, whether for a home mortgage, a new car, new factory equipment, etc.

–November retail sales figures just came in yesterday, and showed a surprising .3% growth versus an expected .1% decline. Apparently, U.S. consumers felt confident enough about their economic prospects to spend well on Black Friday and into this holiday season.

Who has recognized these strong economic numbers? Certainly, Wall Street, as well as institutional and individual investors, have done so. The U.S. stock market set new record highs this week on the good news and Fed actions.

So what should we do in the face of such good economic news under President Biden? Given that the name of this site is Messaging Matters, you know the answer: spread the word. It’s time to talk up the U.S. economy on your social media, at holiday dinners, in conversations with friends and colleagues, and wherever else you can do so.

Photo by Pictures of Money, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/yz2Jbn

Vice President Kamala Harris pushing the 2024 Democratic theme

By now, most people have processed the results of the November 7 off-year elections, and they agree that the Democratic Party did very well. This includes, for example, the largely red state of Kentucky, where Democratic Governor Andy Beshear won reelection in a strong performance. Moreover, in Virginia, Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin lost big time when Democrats not only held onto their state Senate majority, they also flipped the state House of Delegates to Democratic control.

Not coincidentally, abortion was on the minds of Virginia voters, as Gov. Youngkin had proposed to ban most abortions after 15 weeks. Democrats ran and won on protecting abortion rights in opposition to the Governor. Likewise, the abortion rights issue was even more directly on the ballot in Ohio, where voters approved a state constitutional amendment protecting access to abortion and other forms of reproductive healthcare.

These results follow previous special elections, such as in Kansas in August 2022, where voters rejected a proposed Republican amendment that said there was no right to abortion in the state. Thus, it’s apparent that, after the Republican-majority U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June of last year, thereby taking away the constitutional right to abortion and leaving the issue to the states, the Democratic Party pro-choice position keeps prevailing in special elections, and promises to be a strong issue for the Democrats in the 2024 elections.

At the same time, as we have noted, the Democrats — from President Joe Biden to members of Congress and others — have turned the Republicans’ anti-abortion positions and rulings into a broader theme of “freedom.” And now, Vice President Kamala Harris has joined this “freedom” caucus. As this C-SPAN video shows, on Wednesday morning after the November 7 elections, VP Harris stepped out of the White House, walked up to the microphones, and had this to say:

Last night, I think the American people made clear that they are prepared to stand for freedom, and for the individual freedoms and the promise of freedom in America …. I think that if you look at from the midterms to last night, from California to Kansas, Ohio to Virginia, the voters said, “look, the government should not be telling a woman what to do with her body.”

Democrats using the “freedom” theme is music to our ears, as we have been advocating this since 2013. The added benefit is that Democrats are taking “freedom” back from the Republicans, who have tried for so long to own the idea. It’s a great theme for Democrats to run on for 2024.

Photo by The Democratic Party, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/FjJ9mL

The Republican House of Representatives

Unless you are a Congressional scholar, it’s nearly impossible to follow all the twists and turns of the U.S. House Republican Speaker fracas. What we do know is that, at this time of dangerous crises around the world, the United States does not have a Speaker to run the Republican-majority U.S. House of Representatives. Beyond the resulting inability of the House to perform crucial functions (such as voting on important legislation), the Speaker of the House is second in the line of succession, after only the Vice President, to become President if the president cannot carry out his or her duties. Suffice it to say that it’s a catastrophe not to have a House Speaker.

You may recall that this whole mess started in early January when Republicans, after winning a very narrow House majority in last November’s elections, could not agree among themselves on electing a new Speaker, which is the majority’s responsibility. It took an unprecedented 15 rounds of voting before the Republicans finally elected Kevin McCarthy as Speaker. However, to win over his extreme MAGA colleagues, McCarthy had to agree to a number of concessions, including the ability of any one Representative, at any time, to call for a “Motion to Vacate” the Speaker’s position, which is essentially a vote of “no confidence” to remove the Speaker. Suffice it to say that “Squeaker” McCarthy was extremely weak, and probably doomed, from the start, as those MAGAs could call for such a vote anytime McCarthy did not kowtow to them.

California Governor Gavin Newsom

Following the recent death of U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein of California, there has been intense speculation about how her replacement would be chosen, and who it would be. Now we have the answer: California Governor Gavin Newsom‘s office announced Sunday night that the Governor has chosen Emily’s List President and former Service Employees International Union (SEIU) leader Laphonza Butler to represent the state in the U.S. Senate, on an interim basis until California’s voters choose a new Senator in the 2024 elections.

In making this choice, Governor Newsom was in the spotlight as much as, or possibly even more than, anyone else. That’s because not only is California the most populous and arguably most high-profile state in the U.S., it’s also no secret that Governor Newsom has presidential ambitions, presumably for 2028. Thus, Newsom had to tread carefully in making his U.S. Senate appointment.

While Sen. Feinstein’s death was sudden, there has been talk about her age (90) and visible physical and cognitive decline for months. For example, earlier this year, Feinstein was absent from the Senate for weeks with shingles and other infirmities. During that time, her empty seat on the all-important Senate Judiciary Committee caused a deadlock between Democrats and Republicans, resulting in several of President Joe Biden‘s federal judicial nominees being blocked from advancing to the full Senate for a confirmation vote.

Meanwhile, during these months of discussions about Sen. Feinstein’s condition and amid requests that she retire right away, Governor Newsom obviously thought and talked about what would happen if she leaves the Senate before her term expires (Feinstein’s office had previously announced that she would not run for another new term in the 2024 elections). Then, early last month, Newsom publicly announced three principles regarding his actions should Feinstein’s seat prematurely become vacant:

–He would appoint a replacement Senator only an interim basis, until a new Senator is elected in the 2024 elections and seated in the new Congress, presumably in January 2025. The purpose is to give California voters, rather than Newsom himself, the power to choose their U.S. Senator for a full six-year term.

–He would appoint a black woman, noting that currently no black women serve in the U.S. Senate.

–He would not appoint anyone who had already announced their candidacy for the seat in 2024, in order not to tip the scales in favor of someone who would then be running with the advantage of incumbency. Accordingly, this rendered U.S. Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee, as well as numerous others, ineligible for the interim seat, since each of them had previously announced that they are running for the seat for a full term in the 2024 elections.

Governor Newsom ended up keeping all three of his promises. This should reflect very well on him not only now as Governor, but also if he runs for president in the 2028 elections. Imagine, alternatively, if he had violated one or more of these principles: voters across the country could then attack him by asking, “if Newsom couldn’t keep this promise, how can we trust him to keep any presidential campaign promise?” In this sense, Newsom has cleared his first presidential hurdle — the fundamental requirement of credibility.

Photo by Office of the Governor of California, used under Creative Commons license. https://is.gd/r5OBci